⭐ Zeke vs. Pollard - Who Ya Got??

Find someone who loves you as much as Jerry Jones loves Zeke...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

It's wild how much the fantasy landscape has changed over the years.

Back in the 2000s, the league was littered with bellcow backs who would put up monster RB seasons. Let's take a stroll down memory lane:

• LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) San Diego: 483.1 PPR points (1,815 rush yards, 56 rec, 508 rec yards, 33 total TD)

• Marshall Faulk (2000) St. Louis: 455.9 PPR points (1,359 rush yards, 81 rec, 830 rec yards, 26 total TD)

• Priest Holmes (2003) Kansas City: 445 PPR points (1,420 rush yards, 74 rec, 690 rec yards, 27 total TD)

I mean, 33 TDs. Lmao. That's just insane.

Nowadays, those kind of seasons are hard to come by. Christian McCaffrey did put up 467.2 PPR points in 2019, but he wasn't as reliant on TDs (19) for that production because he racked up 116 receptions and 1,005 receiving yards.

Outside of the outlier CMC season, the league is different now. Gone are the days of the true bellcow back. The new era of the NFL is littered with messy, ambiguous backfields and committee rotations.

Backs now have more specialized roles (short area, pass catching, change-of-pace, etc.) and are not required to tote the rock 20+ times a game.

This can be frustrating for fantasy, but also present buying opportunities. JJ Zachariason has discovered through his research that we should actually be targeting these ambiguous backfields in fantasy drafts.

The key is to be price sensitive and take advantage of the discounts available due to ambiguity. We'll be covering a lot of these tricky RB situations over the next couple months, starting with the hotly debated Cowboys backfield...

In this new series, our writers will take a stand on a tricky RB battle. Today, Sam Wallace weighs in on Zeke vs. Pollard. Take it away, Sam...

Name fatigue happens to the best of us. We get bored with greatness. We start to expect it and it doesn’t wow us anymore. Our attention shifts away from what is known to what is unknown, and potentially more exciting.

This is what’s happening to Ezekiel Elliott, RB for the Dallas Cowboys. All he’s done throughout his six-year career is dominate, yet teammate Tony Pollard has become the new hotness.

Do you want the known or unknown? Depending on how you play fantasy, the allure of the unknown and hitting on a player before they erupt could massively pay off. However, I’m here to tell you that the Elliott hate has gotten out of hand. We’re outthinking ourselves and it’s going to cost you.

Historical Production

It’s become widely accepted that running backs aren’t likely to play a full season due to injury, but Elliot has been as durable as they come. He’s only missed one game in his career that wasn’t A) due to a suspension (6 games in 2017) or B) a Week 17 game (2016 & 2018).

One game. That’s it.

The only time he’s finished lower than RB9 was in 2017 when he only played 10 games and still finished as RB13.

He has 65+ targets in four straight seasons and 235+ carries in six straight seasons.

Look, I like Pollard, but he can’t hold a candle to Elliott’s production profile. Pollard has flashed when given the opportunity, but Dallas has made it clear, both on the field and with their wallet, that Elliott is the primary option in this backfield.

Looking Ahead

Speaking of the Cowboys’ wallet, they signed Elliott to a 6-year/$90 million contract back in 2019 that would keep him through 2026. They do have an out after this season, but it would result in almost $12 million in dead cap.

Pollard does have his fans and it’s certainly warranted. In two of his first three seasons, he’s finished in the top 5 in yards/carry among RBs with at least 5 carries/game. Also, according to PFF, Pollard graded out better than Elliott in rushing, receiving, run blocking, and pass blocking last season. Pollard certainly has the metrics to make a strong case.

However, as great as Pollard has been in a small sample size, I'm wary of takes like this:

Simply put, that is never going to happen. Pollard has been open about getting more involved in the offense this season, but short of an Elliott injury, he will not be the RB1 for the Cowboys.

If you enjoy narratives, Elliott did play through an injury last season and is reportedly healthy and ready to make a statement this year. DraftKings does project Dallas for 10.5 wins which puts them atop the NFC East.

At the end of it all, the team is committed to their former 1st round pick. Pollard, a Day 3 pick, simply doesn’t have the same level of investment.

Stop valuing Pollard over Elliott. Elliott is the better player both on the field and in your fantasy lineups.

✈️ A TE getting jet sweeps?? That's the rumor out of Los Angeles right now.

🍼 Was Mac Jones too protected last year? One offensive coach says they need to take the training wheels off in 2022.

🏅 Why you need to prioritize elite QBs in drafts. We need those Top 5 weeks.

📈 The biggest risers & fallers on Underdog this past week. A Chiefs RB is on the rise.

🤔 Where will Julio sign? The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec says there is a logical fit.

Friend of the newsletter, Sal Vetri, swings by the Fantasy Life offices to share his favorite late-round targets in fantasy drafts right now. Take it away, Sal…

🎯 Jamison Crowder (Underdog ADP: 130)

Josh Allen targeted WRs 71% of the time in 2021. This was 13% higher than the league average, but now Allen has lost one of his top receivers in Cole Beasley. Beasley saw 112 targets in 2021. So, who benefits from his departure? Free-agent addition Jamison Crowder.

Crowder signed a 1-year deal to be the Bills starting slot receiver, and 94% of his contract is guaranteed money. Now here’s the interesting part…

In 3 seasons with Buffalo, Beasley’s average fantasy finish was 36th among WRs. He did this across his Age 30-32 seasons. Crowder is only 29 years old, yet he goes as the 61st WR off the board.

🎯 JD McKissic (Underdog ADP: 180.7)

You want as much J.D. McKissic as you can get. He re-signed a 2 year, $7 million deal this offseason. The interesting part is how much demand he commanded in the marketplace. The Bills actually offered him a contract before Washington locked him up.

McKissic currently goes as the 56th RB off the board. This is after Tyrion Davis-Price and Brian Robinson, both of which are 3rd round rookie RBs with no set role in their offense. McKissic has a clear role in Washington.

He ranks Top 5 in RB receptions per game over the last 2 years. McKissic also saw more targets per game than Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook last season. Plus, Carson Wentz targeted RBs 7.2 times per game in 2021. This rate was Top 10 in the NFL.

🎯 Gerald Everett (Underdog ADP: 166.6)

Gerald Everett is now a Charger. This should excite you because Justin Herbert targets TEs at a Top 8 rate since entering the NFL. Now this next stat is why Everett must be on your radar…

Herberts last 2 TEs have finished:

• 10th overall (2020 Hunter Henry)

• 15th overall (2021 Jared Cook)

But here’s the odd part… Everett goes as the 21st TE off the board. Despite finishing Top-20 last year in Seattle. He did this while the Seahawks ranked last in plays per game. Everett now joins the Chargers who ranked 5th in player per game in 2021.

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The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, our kicker aficionado, Linda, previews the Carolina Panthers.

It’s hard to put a pretty spin on the product the Panthers put on the football field in 2021. Carolina ended the season with a 5-12 record. They were bottom five in PF (points for) and finished last in the NFC South, a division that’s home to the 2021 Falcons.

The 2022 season will come down to who is throwing the football. The Panthers defense should be good enough to keep this team in most games, but QB play needs to take a step, or 12, forward.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Fired OC Joe Brady in Week 13 last season and hired former Giants HC Ben McAdoo as their offensive coordinator

• Addressed the offensive line by hiring James Campen as their OL coach and taking T Ikem Ekwonu as the 6th pick in the 2022 NFL draft

• Added QB competition by taking Matt Corral in the 3rd round of the draft

• Signed WR D.J. Moore to a four-year contract extension

• Signed RB D’Onta Foreman to a one-year deal

✨ Team vibes

The vibes in Carolina are less than immaculate. In the quarterback room sits Sam Darnold and rookie Matt Corral, but the rumor mill has generated some talk of a Baker Mayfield trade in the early weeks of June.

Meanwhile, the wide receiver room has D.J. Moore who has been stuck in a perpetual state of “this is his year” since 2019, and Robbie Anderson who recently took to Twitter and threatened retirement in a now-deleted tweet.

The highlight on the Panthers roster is RB Christian McCaffrey who took the fantasy football world by storm in 2019, leading the league in fantasy points. He has spent more time injured in the last two seasons than playing, but should he play the majority of the 2022 season, he’ll find himself right back in the mix of top RBs.

🎯Draft targets

• Christian McCaffrey (Underdog ADP: 3)

• DJ Moore (Underdog ADP: 36)

👋Draft fades

• Robbie Anderson (Underdog ADP: 167)

In today's edition of Jake TV, Jake Trowbridge, explains best ball...