👐 A WR Sleeper Back In Our Lives??

So does Jason Kelce do all of the podcast editing now that he has the time?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by CTRL:

If you’re like me, you’ve probably been hurt by Marvin Mims.

You fell in love with him as a rookie prospect and selected him in wayyy too many 2023 drafts, only to watch Sean Payton banish him to the shadow realm for no apparent reason.

Well, I hope you are ready to get hurt again.

Earlier this week, our very own Matthew Berry dropped his annual “25 Interesting Things From The Combine” piece, which included an interesting nugget about the Broncos WRs.

At the Combine, a reporter asked Payton about Mims’ utilization last year. This was his troubling response:

Matthew then offered this sober conclusion: “In other words, if Jerry Jeudy leaves, Mims will get his shot. If not… sigh.”

But then, just when I thought I was out, THEY PULL ME BACK IN:

If this rumor is true and Payton is to be believed—a two-leg parlay that I admit might feature long odds—that could potentially be Mims’ music you hear.

It’s already very clear that the Broncos aren’t afraid to blow it up.

Mims currently has an ADP of 166.3 on Underdog. Do with that what you will (and don’t ask how or why I know that).

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❓ What to make of Russell Wilson? Key dynasty questions for 2024.

🧓 One last ride for Zach Ertz. He’s eternal.

📊 WRs who could see a shift in offseason value. For better or worse…

🐎 At this point, is any safety…safe? The Broncos make another cut.

🤝 The real comp for J.J. McCarthy. Checks out.

🤔 Where will Tony Pollard end up next year? An update from Dallas.

🤣 Your favorite brothers’ favorite brothers. This needs to be a regular series.

✈️ A potential landing spot for Gus Edwards. Makes some sense.

💕 Travis Kelce reflects on Jason Kelce’s career. Brotherly love.

✂️ The Bills slash their roster. Big cuts.

Free Agency is almost here, so let’s overview the WR market. Take it away, Ian…

🤢 Was 2023 Really THAT Bad?

• Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley

On the one hand, Ridley caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight TDs in his first NFL action since 2021.

On the other hand, it’s not an exaggeration to say that better hands and an extra few inches in the back of the end zone could have produced an additional five scores. Trevor Lawrence’s pass-catchers left a LOT of yards and TDs on the field last season.

Most advanced metrics did not believe Ridley was a very good WR in 2023:

• ESPN Receiver Rating: 48 (No. 66 among qualified WRs)

• PFF Receiving Grade: 72.2 (No. 41)

• Yards per route run: 1.57 (No. 46)

• Targets per route run: 20.4% (No. 38)

It’d make sense if Ridley were dealing with some rust after missing the last season and a half of action; just realize he’ll be 30 by the time next season is over – and that’s just about the time that WRs really struggle to post high-end fantasy production.

Interestingly, the pick the Jaguars owe the Falcons from the original trade will escalate to a second-rounder if Jacksonville winds up signing Ridley to an extension. It’s tough to really think of TOO much better of a landing spot, considering the still bright future for T-Law and the general lack of overall competition for targets in this offense. 

🤔 Touchdowns are Good, Right? RIGHT?

• Bills WR Gabe Davis

Including the playoffs, Davis has caught a whopping 33 TDs since entering the NFL back in 2020 – tied with CeeDee Lamb (!) for the 10th-highest mark in the league. Not too shabby, especially when considering Davis was regularly asked to be the No. 2 pass-game option behind Stefon Diggs.

While there is something to be said about scoring TDs being a “skill,” the underlying efficiency numbers are … not great.

Davis among 95 WRs with 150-plus targets since 2020 (including playoffs):

• PFF receiving grade: 73.9 (No. 57)

• Yards per route run: 1.51 (No. 58)

• Targets per route run: 15.5% (No. 82)

Kudos to Davis for being second in yards per reception during this span, although that’s not entirely unexpected considering he also boasts the group’s second-highest average target depth. First in both categories? Fellow free agent Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Reports seem to be hinting at the possibility that his free-agent market could be much larger than expected. Maybe the best is still to come for the soon-to-be 25-year-old talent, but his high-end QB-aided production really stinks of Kenny Golladay when considering how he might perform in a less fantasy-friendly environment down the road.