🙏 The WR On A Mission In 2023

Your favorite team is not currently pursuing Lamar Jackson...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Matt Waldman's RSP:

If you read one other thing today in addition to this newsletter, let it be Calvin Ridley's terrific piece in The Player's Tribune.

In "A Letter to the Game," the recently reinstated Jaguars WR opens up about not only the struggles he was going through in the lead-up to his one-year suspension for gambling but also his entire childhood backstory.

He reveals that he played most of the 2020 season with a broken foot, which makes his performance that year all the more impressive:

It's rare for NFL athletes to speak this candidly about topics like depression and anxiety, but Ridley does so here in an honest, relatable fashion while also fully owning up to the mistakes he made.

Best of all, though, Ridley shares with us that he's in a much, much better place now than he was during that dark period. If this quote doesn't get you fired up for the 2023 season (and to load up on Jags in fantasy drafts), than I worry about your ability to experience normal, human emotions:

A couple weeks ago I wrote about Ridley's ADP being a little rich in current Underdog drafts, but if he's correct in forecasting his 2023 yardage numbers than he will greatly outperform his current cost.

Even if he doesn't clear those marks, fantasy football is supposed to be fun and I can't think of a guy I want to draft and root for more in 2023 than Ridley.

📝 Anthony Richardson broke the combine, but will it translate to Fantasy Football?... Ask Matt Waldman.

A 4.44-second 40-yard dash may win over social media, but it won't win you your Fantasy Football league.

That's why Matt Waldman is here.

With his Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you can focus on enjoying the Combine highlight tape while he does the dirty work for your fantasy team.

For $21.95, you'll get Matt's industry-acclaimed 2-in-1 guide, featuring:

• Comprehensive analysis on the incoming NFL Draft class (see below: he's BEEN on Anthony Richardson...)

• Evaluation of at least 150 offensive skill prospects (QB, RB, WR, TE)

• Early insight into players primed to pop

For the price of a few cups of coffee, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio ensures you'll target the right rookies for your Fantasy Football team, regardless of Combine results.

🐻 The Chicago Bears social media team is having fun. Very good.

✂️ The Cardinals cut the Chosen one. They'll save $12 million in 2023 cap space.

🏆 Need dynasty rankings for your rookie drafts? We got you covered.

👀 The top remaining FA running backs. Strong list still.

📈 NFL Combine risers in Underdog Fantasy ADP. A sleeper TE jumped more than Anthony Richardson.

🔮 Where will DeAndre Hopkins land? He's staying tight lipped.

Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re still reading because you are here for the long haul. “What now, Cooterdoodle?” Let’s break down ways to survive the off-season...

🏕️ Survival Tip #2: Get your toes wet

This isn’t about soggy socks. This is about dipping your toes into new league styles this offseason by trying a dynasty league.

If you’ve got the fantasy football itch in early March, waiting for August to roll around is as torturous as Green Bay fans waiting to find out what apparitions Aaron Rodgers saw on his darkness retreat. Don’t punish yourself by waiting for redraft season when there are solutions readily available right now. Dynasty never ends.

But be warned: Don’t dive in head first. There is such a thing as joining too many leagues. You won’t want to be the person that overdrafts in March only to find yourself drowning in lineups in October.

💡 Quick Tips for dynasty beginners:

1. Til Death Do Us Part. Because dynasty leagues do not refresh/reset at the end of the NFL season, commitment is key.

Don’t join any league on a whim.

If you aren’t intending to see this league through for many years, through thick and thin, through bad rosters and injuries… try bestball?

2. Fix your vision. Don’t be near-sighted. You’ll need to shift the focus of your draft strategy and trades to account for longevity.

Dynasty formats afford you the freedom of future draft picks and wishful thinking, but do your research. Player values are viewed differently outside of a 1-year vacuum. 

3. Keep this between us. Casual fantasy players aren’t interested in trade talk right now. They’re planning summer vacations and watching Cocaine Bear.

Your friends will shoot a judgmental side-eye if you start talking dynasty at the dinner table. But not us. This is a safe space and we’re always ready to talk fantasy. Join us 😈

With the Combine behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class. Today Dwain profiles one of the top QBs in the class...

👑 Bryce Young

• Rookie Draft ADP: 6

• Underdog ADP: 137

📋 Summary

Young is currently the No. 1 QB selection in NFL mock drafts, but things are tightening up with C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.

The early-draft-declare was the top-graded PFF passer (93.0) out of 169 FBS QBs, with at least 250 dropbacks over the last two seasons. He delivered 8.8 yards per attempt (YPA) with a 65.6% completion rate – well above the FBS averages of 7.6 and 62.5%, respectively.

He can hit throws to all field levels and understands how to handle the pressure and disguised coverage looks that the NFL will throw at him. Yes, he played with high-end talent at Alabama, but Young isn’t just a product of the system – he can make plays inside and outside of structure.

Teams will have concerns about his size, which could cause him to drop in the draft, but this is the best pure passer in the class. If he were 6’2” and 215 lbs, he would be a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in many draft classes.

👍 Pros:

🎯 Exhibits High-End Downfield Accuracy

No QB was more accurate when targeting pass catchers 10-plus yards down the field – something collegiate players must do more when transitioning to the NFL. Young’s 63.3% adjusted completion rate (removes drops) was well above the FBS average of 54.8%, demonstrating his ability to push the ball down into downfield passing windows with precision.

🏋️‍♂️ Overcomes Sub-Optimal Environments

Young didn’t only thrive due to supreme pass blocking – he is a great processor, according to draft analysts. He registered 370 dropbacks where he faced pressure and ranked sixth in passing grade out of 146 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks. He delivered an eye-popping 26 TDs and only six INTs under duress, and his YPA of 8.4 was sterling when compared to the 6.1 average of his peers.

His ability to handle stressful situations reached beyond plays with pressure. When faced with a third or fourth down and six-plus yards, he ranked as the No. 2 PFF passer with a 10.1 YPA (2nd) and 74.1 adjusted completion percentage (10th). 

Against disguised coverages – a growing trend in the NFL – Young was able to diagnose and deliver results as the No. 1 PFF passer (surprise, lol). While his peers saw their turnover-worthy play (TWP) rate spike to 6.3% on these looks, Young bristled at the opposition, with only 1.6% of his dropbacks putting the ball in harm's way.

Lance Zierlein sums up some of Young’s strengths well, referring to his calmness, ability to locate trouble in zone coverage and handle the incoming rush. He also calls out his ability to make “defenses pay when he breaks contain and improvises,” which brings us to our next point.

💦 Makes Splash Plays Out of Structure

The best QBs in the NFL, like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, are the kings of creating big plays outside of structure in scramble-drill situations. In such scenarios, they have 18 passing TDs each over the last three seasons. 

While some will want to dismiss Young in this department due to his stature and lack of scrambling statistics – he is the best passer in college over the past two seasons from the scramble drill with 11 TD passes and only 3 INTs.

Anthony Richardson – considered the much more athletic profile – only managed 13 scramble drill throws, completing only two. This isn’t to say Richardson can’t improve; it is just illustrating that because someone is big and fast doesn’t mean they can create big plays out of structure.

👎 Cons:

📏 Size

Young was listed at 194 pounds at Alabama but was able to weigh in at 204 pounds at the combine in Indianapolis. Per NFL.com, no QB under 207 pounds has been drafted in Round 1 since 2003.

Life could be hard as a featherweight with 300-pound defensive linemen taking him to the ground, but if he can play closer to his Combine weight, we have some recent examples of QBs that had success in the league at a similar size.

🏃‍♂️ Limited Rushing Upside

Young operates with a pass-first mentality and scrambled on only 6.1% of his collegiate dropbacks in 2021 and 2022. However, he has shown the ability to escape the pocket and could slightly up that number in the NFL if his receiving options aren’t open. Ultimately, he won’t ever be a factor in the designed-run game like the NFL leaders, which puts a cap on his dual-threat potential.

🔮 Fantasy Impact

Young has more value in dynasty formats than best ball and season-long contests for 2023. His upside as a passer is undeniable, but unless he slides in the draft, he will likely land on a team that won’t have the weapons (i.e., the Texans) to support a quick ascension. Assuming NFL GMs don’t get cold feet, he should have elite draft capital, allowing him multiple seasons to work towards his full potential in dynasty.

He could rival elite pocket passers like Joe Burrow at peak powers if surrounded by a strong supporting cast. His mid-range outcome would be a low-end QB1 without the high-end rushing upside needed to win leagues outside of rare efficiency spike seasons, and his floor is a mid-range QB2.