🤫 The Worst Kept Secret In The NFL

Did you watch the Pro Bowl? Trick question! Seek help...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:

If Aaron Rodgers is trying to keep his dream landing spot a mystery, he sure isn't doing a good job.

I don't even think you could describe his recent behavior as "hints" or a "trail of breadcrumbs" to the answer. It's more like a bright neon billboard that screams:

"I WANT TO BE A RAIDER IN 2023!!!!!!"

Whether he's talking to golf reporters at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, mixing it up with fans on the course, or strategizing with his agent, Rodgers has made it painfully clear that he's ready to move into Davante Adams' neighborhood in Las Vegas.

The betting markets have reacted accordingly with odds for Rodgers landing with the Raiders recently shifting from +450 to -150:

Rodgers, of course, is still under contract with the Packers and any move will require a trade (and possibly some contract restructuring). He's currently slated to make $59.465 million in guaranteed money if he plays in 2023 with a salary-cap hit of $31,623,570.

As for what it will take to land Rodgers? Here's what an anonymous GM recently told the Washington Post.

And now we wait...

Peter normally shares six big takeaways from the weekend's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light, but today he's going to ponder six big questions in anticipation of the Super Bowl. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...

🍺 1. Can Patrick Mahomes put the team on his back again?

It's still up in the air which weapons Patrick Mahomes is going to have at his disposal on Sunday, but if he pulls off a Super Bowl win with a bum ankle and bum WRs, his superhuman legend will grow to Paul Bunyan levels.

Most reasonable people agree Mahomes will go down as the greatest QB to ever play, so the only real question is how quickly we will all collectively arrive at that consensus. It could be coming very soon if he becomes a 27 year-old with two Super Bowls and two MVPs.

🍺 2. Will the Eagles be exposed or validated?

Two things can be true: 1) the Philadelphia Eagles have been a dominant team all year and 2) the Philadelphia Eagles have played a cakewalk schedule down the stretch. This is, in fact, why they play the games.

We know Mahomes will pull a few rabbits out of his hat over the course of the game, but the real question is if the Eagles can find their midseason form. They will certainly need a WR to clear more than the 36 receiving yards they did last week to hang with the Chiefs.

🍺 3. Will Jalen Hurts follow in Mahomes' footsteps...

Check this out...

• Both Mahomes and Hurts didn't become a starter until the end of their age 22 season

• They also both lost to Tom Brady in the playoffs during their age 23 season

• Mahomes went 11-3 and won the Super Bowl in his age 24 season

• Hurts went 14-1 in his age 24 season and....

• tbd in the Super Bowl 🤯

🍺 4. Is this a revenge game for Andy Reid?

Reid spent his first 14 years as a head coach for the Eagles and led the team to four consecutive NFC Championship game appearances between 2001 and 2004.

On the one hand, Reid didn't have his Eagles contract renewed after a 4-12 season in 2012. On the other hand, owner Jeffrey Lurie said that his induction into the Philadelphia Eagles Hall of Fame "was inevitable."

Still, I'd like to believe Reid is playing with the slightest of chips on his shoulder and will be pulling out all of the stops to get the W.

🍺 5. Whose ADP will get impacted the most by the Super Bowl?

Us fantasy sickos know that recency bias can drive ADPs and I think there are a couple players who could see their ADP move solely because of their performances in the biggest game of the year.

Two I could see happening...

• DeVonta Smith flips AJ Brown. Smith has been quietly outproducing Brown down the stretch and another big Smith game coupled with a Brown dud could be enough to put these guys neck and neck in 2023 ADP.

• Isiah Pacheco pushes himself into the Top 5 rounds. As it stands, Pacheco is more of a Zero RB pick, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump a few rounds if he once again leads this backfield and finds the end zone.

🍺 6. Will people forget that Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce are brothers?

I know it's only been a week since the Super Bowl matchups were settled, but sometimes I forget that it is the first time in Super Bowl history that two brothers will be playing against one another.

It would be really nice if the NFL cognoscenti would do a better job reminding me of this historic fact so I don't have to constantly recall it on my own.

I hate to say it, but it sure seems like their mother, Donna Kelce, can't lose no matter how this turns out...

🕺 How can you not like Derek Carr? You'd never know he got benched, although it wasn't even the best griddy of the weekend.

🤝 Forget the Kelces...this is the brother-on-brother NFL action we need.

🗣️ Brandon Aiyuk gives his Super Bowl prediction. And he doesn't mince words.

❓ The next Brock Purdy? This QB stood out at the Senior Bowl.

❌ Yo, Atlanta...you can still delete this.

🏁 Are you sure the Pro Bowl is flag football? This was a real hit lmao.

📺 Set your DVRs. This looks terrific.

🤠 The Cowboys get a new offensive coordinator. Oh, Jerry.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this series, Kendall leads us in overreacting to this weekend's action...

😎The Pro Bowl is cool again

The NFL announced back in September that it would be replacing the Pro Bowl with the "Pro Bowl Games" — basically a week of skills competitions capped off by an AFC-NFC flag football game.

To be honest, I was not a huge fan of Pro Bowls in the past, but the amount of highlights we got to see over the last few days has definitely kept me entertained. I mean when was the last time you saw Saquon Bakley get nailed in the face by a dodgeball?! And the longest drive challenge came with some incredible moments as well. Tee high, let it fly — right?

Last year's Pro Bowl saw its lowest ratings since 2006 with 6.7 million viewers, per Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal.

The NFL had to make some changes in order to keep people’s attention, and the pivot to a more player-friendly weekend might have done the trick.

It may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but at least we got some great highlights and even better videos from it. Seriously, now we can speculate if Aaron Rodgers really is going to Las Vegas after Davante Adams’ touchdown celebration. Oh, and who could forget this gem of Derek Carr using humor to laugh off his inevitable departure from Las Vegas?

I’m all-in on this new format. Where are we going next year, NFL?!

🌊The Tom Brady ripple effect is near

We all know the news by now, Tom Brady sat down on a sandy beach and pressed record and decided to announce his retirement to the world, this time “for good”.

Maybe a year too late, but now one of the greatest to ever do it is out of the equation and that really changes the outlook of the free agent quarterbacks.

There is no question that Aaron Rodgers is the top dog to go get. Any team that believes they are just a quarterback away will want to pursue Rodgers (we are looking at you, New York Jets).

Derek Carr also becomes more attractive to some teams with the news of Brady. The decision on Carr will come sooner rather than later, with time not on the side of the Raiders. They have until February 15th to either trade or release Carr, or else his contract becomes guaranteed and they will have to pay him $40.4 million.

Let’s not forget about Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and potentially Lamar Jackson. Things could get interesting. BUCKLE UP!

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. Here's what he likes for the Super Bowl. All lines from BetMGM...

💰 Eagles -1.5 (vs. Chiefs)

After some early line movement, this line has settled comfortably at Eagles -1.5. There was some early steam on the Eagles, pushing this line up to 2.5 points last Monday, but it has since moved back into the Chiefs’ favor.

Overall, the betting activity on this game has been relatively even, with the Eagles grabbing 61% of the spread bets and 61% of the dollars. However, there has been some sharp activity on the Chiefs, which could be the reason for the line movement.

The thought process behind the Chiefs is pretty simple: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are really, really good at their respective jobs. Both players will take the field in situations that have historically been extremely profitable on Sunday. Mahomes has closed as an underdog on nine previous occasions throughout his career, and he’s a sparkling 7-1-1 against the spread in those contests. Reid is quite possibly the best coach in history with additional time to prepare, posting a record of 22-14 against the spread. Reid isn’t infallible in that situation – his team failed to cover off a bye in the Divisional Round – but it stands to reason that one of the best offensive minds in the league does well with extra study time.

I don’t like to go against the sharps often, and I almost never pass up an elite quarterback getting points. However, I do think the Eagles are the correct side in this spot.

The Eagles have breezed through an easy schedule, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t impressive. They were third in Football Outsiders DVOA, and they boast a top-six unit on both sides of the ball.

Their defense will be vital against Kansas City. Shutting down Mahomes is basically impossible, but the Eagles are well-equipped to slow him down significantly. Their pass-rush is easily the best in football, ranking first in adjusted sack rate and racking up at least 15 more sacks than every other team in football. Their secondary is also elite, with their top three corners all ranking inside the top 23 at the position per Pro Football Focus.

Going against this unit is a challenge in any circumstance, but the Chiefs could also be operating at less than 100%. Reid was optimistic about JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney being available for the Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be as effective as usual. Their other receivers struggled to get open against the Bengals’ secondary in the AFC Championship, and this represents a clear step-up in weight class.

I expect the Eagles to make just enough plays defensively to support their offense, who has a significant advantage in the trenches. When all is said and done, I like the Eagles’ chances of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.