❄ Wintry Worries Within Week 18

Draft szn. Redraft szn. DFS szn. Week 18 takes all kinds…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Hugo Boss:

If your league is still going in Week 18, I ask professionally, respectfully, and reverently…why?

Seventeen weeks were tough enough. Short-term or season-ending injuries, veteran resurgences, and rookie standouts made the last four months hard to navigate. And now, motivation is a factor.

Whether or not a team is in it to win or chanting ‘1-2-3 Cancun’ coming out of each huddle is a legitimate concern. But don’t worry. I got you covered with the full view of the playoff picture, which I’ll be updating throughout the weekend. However, we got an even ‘better’ twist for the last week of the regular season: bad weather!

Snow and a wintry mix is in the forecast for a couple of games. One kicks off later today. So, of course, I had to do some digging and see how we could best approach each contest.

🧐 A Quick Glance at the Data

Using the NFLWeather database, I found any games with snow in them over the last five seasons. There are only nine, and just three were played with snow coming down before and during the game:

• 2020, Week 16, Titans @ Packers

• 2019, Week 15, Broncos @ Chiefs

• 2018, Divisional Round, Colts @ Chiefs

I focus on the parts of the game that matter for fantasy production when analyzing weather impacts, like play volume and passing rates. And after pulling the data for all six teams, investing in a couple of rushing attacks wouldn’t be the worst idea:

• The average change in total plays run was -0.6 (meaning about one fewer play was run)

  • Four of the six teams either exceeded or were within 5.0% of their average play volume in ideal conditions

  • The teams that fell short were the Titans and Colts

• The average change in pass rate over expectation was -2.8%

  • Four of the six teams significantly fell below their average PROE

  • The Chiefs either matched or exceeded their average in both games

In short, offenses were operating at their normal pace but passing less when the game environment screamed they should take to the air. So, with these takeaways in mind, let’s get to the games.

⛄ Jets at Patriots

Snow showers are in New England’s forecast as early as Saturday night. I’m sure we’ll get those pictures from beat writers of the stadium covered in snow Sunday morning, and in-game conditions don’t look any better.

However, field conditions shouldn’t be as dire as you might think. Per league protocol, the team has up to 90 minutes before kickoff to keep the tarp on the field. Plus, Gillette Stadium has a heating system under the turf.

Besides, you weren’t banking on DeVante Parker (Questionable) or Hunter Henry (Out) for fantasy anyway. At least, I hope you weren’t. Demario Douglas’s 16.1% target share from the slot (65.4% snap rate from the interior) does look enticing.

However, only Kyren Williams (104) and Rachaad White (91) have more touches than Ezekiel Elliott since he became the starter. Facing the Jets’ run defense already lent itself to a solid day from the former Cowboy, but the elements will make him an even more popular option on Sunday.

🌨 Steelers at Ravens

An AFC North divisional rematch already had the makings of a slugfest with few points scored. So, Mother Nature decided to give it the perfect setting: cold and rainy.

It’ll look miserable. Fantasy managers will double-count the forecast and go all in on either running game. But Pittsburgh, with Mason Rudolph under center, was already there.

However, I’m not as convinced Pittsburgh’s ground game is the way to attack Saturday’s two-game slate. Granted, Baltimore will rest multiple starters, while Mike Tomlin and company have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. But, of the eight defensive players listed as either Questionable or Out, three had a 50.0% snap rate or lower, and two didn’t play the last time the Ravens faced Pittsburgh.

Mike MacDonald has shown he can scheme up a good counter (which held Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to 119 scrimmage yards in Week 5), and not everyone gets to sit out this afternoon. As a result, guys like Melvin Gordon in the same game or Devin Singletary later in the day might have more upside.

🛠️ Everything you need for Week 18’s Saturday Slate

For everything else you need for Saturday—including our Inactives page, which will update in the afternoon with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Ian Hartitz, and Dwain McFarland dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 18.

Have you played God of War: Ragnarok?

Awesome game. The series has been excellent. 10 out of 10. No notes.

But in the game, there’s a sequence where Kratos is fighting with Thor (Google the backstory to catch up; also, delightful storytelling), and the God of Thunder slaps the God of War with Mjolnir, killing him on the spot.

You go to the death screen thinking you have to try again, but then Thor’s voice comes through saying, “Oh no…I say when we’re done!”. And then he shocks Kratos back to life and they continue fighting.

That’s essentially Week 18.

We thought we were done. Commissioners were awarding trophies and discussing payouts. The draft geeks are out in full force talking about Bo Nix’s arm talent. But we’ve still got a slate of games to play! So, before your mind wanders off to the 2024 draft and beyond, the rankings crew got together one last time to talk about who they’re into for the regular season finale.

🐅 WR - Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Browns

Chase hasn’t been the same WR since Joe Burrow left the lineup, scoring only 12.7 points per contest with a 23% TPRR—down from his marks of 19.9 and 26% over the first 10 weeks. Browning has been more of a dink-and-dunk passer with an aDOT of only 6.1 yards, which has been problematic for Chase on the outside.

Despite all of that, Chase is still an uber-talented WR who has led the team in target share and has accounted for 37% of the air yards with Browning under center—even if we include Week 15, where he left early due to injury. We have seen 40% of the endzone targets go toward Chase.

This weekend, things could be lining up perfectly for Chase. The vaunted Browns defense could rest multiple key starters with their playoff berth locked, and Tee Higgins appears unlikely to play. We could have one of the best WRs in the NFL in a consolidated offense against an average defensive unit, which is a spot where I want to bet on Chase every time—especially at only $7,300 on DraftKings.

Chase is my No. 14 player, almost 20 spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus.

• Dwain

🤠 WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) vs. Commanders

Dak Prescott has the slate’s second-best matchup in terms of combined passing yards per dropback against the Commanders’ largely pitiful secondary. Dak made things look easy on his way to throwing for 331 yards and four TDs when these teams met on Thanksgiving.

Don’t be surprised if the encore includes Cooks getting going in a major way against this bottom-three defense in yards per attempt and TD rate allowed on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

The veteran receiver has scored in seven of his last 11 games; Cooks is the same boom-or-bust WR3 he’s been all season – the difference this week is that the former outcome looks more possible than ever with the Cowboys passing game poised to produce some fireworks.

• Ian

✍ Wondering who’s got the most to play for? (We sure are.) Kendall has the analysis you need to keep track of it all.

🔢 Disappointed with Garrett Wilson’s 2023 results? The data shows they might be in for a bounceback in ‘24.

😲 Injury round-up of who’s in, who’s out, and who might be playing. The list is..well, it’s not short.

💲 I’m looking for the best Pick’Em plays for Week 18. Oh wait, Geoff’s got them for me right here!

🏆 It’s Award SZN to highlight the best fantasy players! Who’s your MVP?

😂 Travis Kelce tosses out a conspiracy theory and calls out the Mayo Bowl officials. I think he’s right!

🔎 Looking to get in on some prop action today? Have no fear. The Prop Finder is here.

👀 The Boss puts out his rankings for 2024. I’m ready to draft now!

❤ Damar Hamlin hosts his 4th annual toy drive. He’s simply the best.

😨 The Fantasy Life Eliminator League is over! And guess who lost!

Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 18.

🥇 Popular option: Dallas Cowboys

✍ Facts:

• Dak Prescott is the #4 QB in fantasy this year (325.8 fantasy points), behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson AKA the rushy boys.

• There is an argument to be made that CeeDee Lamb was the best WR in fantasy this year, with a 91.0% route participation and 20.0% target share, along with 34.0% of the endzone targets and 32.0% of the 3rd/4th down targets.

• The Washington Commanders have allowed 480 total points this year, which is a lot, but what is more impressive is that they have allowed 160 points in the fourth quarter alone, a full 34 points more than the second-worst Cardinals.

💰 Stack info (DraftKings)

🤑 Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson): With a $22,000 salary, this lineup boasts a Median score of 53.0, indicative of a strong expected performance. The higher cost is aligned with a high Median, suggesting this combo could be a reliable core for your lineup.

• Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks): This combination requires a slightly higher investment at $22,500 and offers a Median score very close to Combo 1, at 51.2. The incremental cost increase is marginal compared to the small drop in Median, suggesting that Cooks' inclusion provides a slightly different dynamic without drastically changing the expected performance.

• Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson): The most affordable option at $18,100, the Median score dips to 39.4. This significant saving in salary comes at the cost of a lower expected Median, which might be justified if it allows for strategic allocation of funds elsewhere in your lineup.

🚀 Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

• Combo 1 (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson):

  • Top Finish: This combo shines with an 18.8% chance, indicating a strong likelihood of finishing at the top, complementing its high Median score.

  • 60+% Potential: At 30.9%, it also has the highest probability among the three for scoring in the top 60+%, suggesting a high ceiling for performance.

• Combo 2 (Prescott/Lamb/Cooks):

  • Top Finish: A slightly lower chance at 14.1%, but still maintaining a solid potential for top-tier finishes.

  • 60+% Potential: Stands at 23.4%, a decent probability but not as high as Combo 1, indicating a moderate trade-off between cost and high-scoring potential.

• Combo 3 (Prescott/Cooks/Ferguson):

  • Top Finish: Only a 0.8% chance, showing a steep decline from the other two combos, reflecting its lower Median and overall expected performance.

  • 60+% Potential: The likelihood diminishes to 1.7%, which is significantly less compared to the other combinations, suggesting that while it is budget-friendly, it comes with a considerably lower expectation for high scoring.

1️⃣ Combo 1: This is the standout choice for those looking to anchor their lineup with strong expected performance, as indicated by its high Median score and the best odds for a Top Finish and surpassing the 60+% threshold. It's the most suitable for players willing to invest more for a higher potential payout.

2️⃣ Combo 2: Serves as a nuanced alternative to Combo 1, offering slightly less in terms of Median and top-tier potential but still holding on to a strong probability for high performance. This could be a strategic pick for those who expect Cooks to outperform his price point.

3️⃣ Combo 3: As the most budget-conscious selection, it's tailored for those looking to spread their budget across the lineup or take a contrarian approach. Its significantly lower Median and probabilities for Top Finish and 60+% make it a riskier play, but one that could provide unique leverage in large field tournaments.

It has been an easy-button spot all year, but we are yet again going back to the Commanders as a matchup to attack this week. The Cowboys have the highest team total on the slate at 30 and get to face a WAS team that has allowed 35 TDs and 11.5 yards per completion on the year. This isn’t a spot you really have to overthink, just find different ways to build relative value.