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- 🏆 Who Will Be The Super Bowl MVP?
🏆 Who Will Be The Super Bowl MVP?
A non-QB is interesting...
The last day with real football until September...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Who is going to win MVP?? Pete's pick
Morning Download: All quiet on the injury front
Do the Raiders even want Rodgers?
Super Bowl DFS Showdown: How to win a $1,000,000
Bets Bets: Our favorite bets
It’s 2/12. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
We made it. The Super Bowl, err, Big Game is finally here.
We've spent two weeks dissecting this game from every angle, putting every injury under a magnifying glass, breaking down usage trends for both teams, and sharing our favorite bets, props, and drafting strategies.
I've made a ton of bets, drafted a ton of teams, and built a bunch of DFS Showdown lineups (more on that below) this past week, but the one thing I haven't done yet is place an MVP bet.
Let's change that. Here's my thought process as I figure out who to bet on...
Jalen Hurts (+135) and Patrick Mahomes (+135) are both the betting favs and rightfully so (QBs have won the MVP in 31 of 56 Super Bowls). But I'm going to need longer odds to get the juices flowing...
It's certainly not impossible for a another position to win, though. We have seen four different non-QBs win over the past ten years: Cooper Kupp (WR), Julian Edelman (WR), Von Miller (LB), and Malcolm Smith (LB)
One thing we've seen from both the Chiefs and Eagles this year is a non-QB enjoying an alpha game where they dominated the scoring:
Travis Kelce (+1100): Divisional Round game vs. Jags (14 catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs)
A.J. Brown (+1400): Week 8 vs. Steelers (10 catches, 156 yards, 3 TDs)
DeVonta Smith (+3000): Week 16 @ Cowboys (8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TDs)
It will take a game similar to those above lines to sway MVP voters, but it's certainly possible (just ask Kupp).
With Smith emerging as a true 1A/1A with Brown this year, there's no reason for that big of a gap in their MVP odds.
The pick: DeVonta Smith (+3000)
🏆 We have your COVERED for the Super Bowl...
We've been cranking out Super Bowl content all week. If you need something, chances are we have it.
GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about the big game all in one place.
PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for the game.
INACTIVES - updated at 5:00pm ET
RANKINGS - Full Super Bowl rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
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Pete updates you on the latest overnight news before the Big Game...
📁 All quiet on the injury front...
We generally use this space on Sunday mornings to update you on injuries and potential inactives situation, but things are eerily quiet before the final game this afternoon.
Injuries had been a dominant storyline for the Chiefs throughout the playoffs, but there is not a single player listed on their final injury report after Friday's practice with every player (including the banged up WRs) getting in a full practice:
The Eagles are in a similar boat with their entire offense fully healthy other than fringe WR Britain Covey, who is officially listed as questionable.
It's fair to wonder if Patrick Mahomes (ankle) and Jalen Hurts (shoulder) are truly 100%, but nothing from this week of practices or the official injury reports indicate that they will be limited.
Let the games begin...
🚑 A final health update on the Chiefs WRs. JuJu has some added incentives, too.
🤣 Andy Reid roasts one of his WRs. "You are faster on TikTok."
💰 How much will Rhianna get paid to do the Super Bowl? The answer will surprise you.
🤑 And how much will Jalen Hurts get on his next contract? That's a big number.
🚀 Early rookie ADP. Drafts have started and the rookies are flying off the shelves.
🤔 Do the Raiders even want Rodgers? This is interesting speculation from The Athletic.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have spent all week grinding the betting market. Here's all full rundown of our favorite bets for the Super Bowl...All odds via BetMGM
We've been giving you our best bets all week long, but we have a few more up our sleeves...
Watson has gone under this total in five of his last seven games and hasn't caught more than one pass in a game since Week 11.
He's being targeted at an extremely low rate and now has to deal with what appears like a fully operational Chiefs receiving core. He had to sit out the Conference Championship (illness) game, and now that everyone else has regained their health, he may have trouble getting on the field
Don't be shocked if he stays off the scoresheet in the Super Bowl.
These teams can put points on the board, but history suggests this number is too high. Unders have gone 18-9 in games with a total of at least 50 points this season, including 8-3 in Chiefs games.
Unders are also 9-3-1 in the Super Bowl with a total of at least 50.
Sanders only played 23% of the second-half snaps over the last three games, thanks to big halftime leads of 16, 28 and 14 points. However, we should see a much more competitive game against the Chiefs, and the veteran RB handles 56% of the team's rushing attempts when the score is within three points.
In four games this season where the Eagles have led by four-plus points on less than 35% of plays, Sanders has hit the over 100% and averaged 68.9 yards. This is one of my favorite props at -120.
Philadelphia's advantages in the trenches will be too much to overcome.
The Eagles have the highest rushing success rate recorded over the last five years and are facing a KC defense that faced the weakest schedule of rushing offenses based on opponent EPA (Clevanalytics).
K.C. plays a lot of press coverage and struggles to cover the middle of field, which will be a problem against physical pass catchers like A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert.
Defensively, Philly's depth on the defensive line will wear down a Chiefs OL that has question marks at both tackle positions. As great as Mahomes is, he is not impervious to pressure.
He is 7-11-1 ATS on the season and has a 64.2 passer rating in his previous two Super Bowls. Teams with a losing ATS record are only 1-4 historically in the big game.
The Eagles are +12 in turnover differential and will be working with fresh legs on defense due to being able to convert long-sustaining drives into touchdowns against the Chiefs' 30th-ranked red-zone defense.
Mahomes is the best player, but it takes a team. Philly's roster is too deep for the Chiefs to overcome.
We’ve shared our favorite DFS stacks throughout the season, but single game Showdown contests are an entirely different beast than a Main Slate. Today, Peter Overzet shares some tips and tricks for those looking to make a lineup or two on DraftKings for their big Super Bowl contests…
Oh, you thought just because there is only one game left that we would be done with DFS? Au contraire, my friends.
DraftKings has blessed us with some absolutely monstrous contests for the Super Bowl, including two different Millionaire makers (a $15 and a $4,444 for the high rollers).
Whether you are playing Showdown for the first time or a veteran who is just curious about what the sims are spitting out, here’s everything you need to know to build a winning lineup…
🤠 Showdown 101: The Basics
Unlike with a classic slate where we fill nine roster spots and specific positions, for Showdown we simply fill six position-agnostic slots from the entire player pool (including kickers and defense) within a $50,000 salary cap.
The only other wrinkle is that your captain spot selection will cost 1.5x their salary, but also earn 1.5x their fantasy values. This means we want to find captain selections who have a big ceiling and a good chance to be the highest scoring player on the slate.
Here is the full set of Showdown rules and scoring if you are interested.
🤠 Don’t Dupe Me, Bro
Because there are only six spots in a lineup and because these Super Bowl contests are so big (the $15 Milly Maker has 470,500 entries!), it is very likely that you are going to have overlapping players (and sometimes fully duplicated lineups) with many other entries.
It may be tempting to just “play the best plays,” but in doing so you will have a very difficult path to making any money if you share a similar lineup with hundreds of other users.
🤠 How To Make Smart, Unique Lineups
With that said, It’s our mission to make lineups that are unique but still logical. Here are a few tips on how to do this…
🍽️ Leave some salary on the table
Whether you're handbuilding or using an optimizer, it’s likely that most lineups will use the majority, if not all of the provided salary cap. This is a good way to build the best possible lineup from a projected point standpoint, but it is not a good way to build unique lineups.
By leaving some salary on the table, you are more likely to land on a combination of players that the majority of the field will not be utilizing.
It might feel weird to go down from A.J. Brown ($9,200) to Dallas Goedert ($6,400) on a lineup where you have the money for Brown, but that $2,800 you leave on the table will make your lineup less likely to be duplicated. And even though Brown projects for more points, it is not unlikely for Goedert to outscore him in a single game.
😴 Find some deep sleepers
It can often be tricky to find diamonds in the rough when everyone is picking players from the same two team player pool, but if we only pick the popular plays (Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith, etc.) then we will end up with the same “chalk” lineup as everyone else.
Normally the Chiefs dysfunctional WR depth chart would be a source of frustration and fantasy headaches, but when it comes to Showdown the plethora of “thin” options is actually a boon. We know that Mahomes can elevate any pass catcher and make them relevant in a single game scenario, so we should take advantage of that dynamic by taking fliers on the fringe Kansas City weapons:
Kadarius Toney ($4,400)
Skyy Moore ($3,800)
Justin Watson ($2,000)
Noah Gray ($1,200)
I know, you just threw up a little in your mouth. But that’s the name of the game when it comes to Showdown. None of those aforementioned players are likely to “smash” per se, but it’s also why none of them will be used by more than 15% of the field.
If one of them scores a TD and ends up in the optimal lineup (best possible lineup), that means over 85% of the lineups in the entire field will be dead and you’ll only be competing with a much smaller cohort of rosters for first place.
❄️ Utilize unique constructions
Most entries in Showdown contests will fall into a similar bucket:
Popular captain like Hurts, Kelce, or Mahomes
3-4 players on one team and 2-3 players on the other team
One simple way we can break this mold is by deploying underutilized macro constructions like five Chiefs and one Eagle or vice versa.
This is where I love to lean on the simulations done by our friends over at Run The Sims.
Don’t worry, it’s only nerdy and complicated on the backend where they simulate every play from the game using their projections and inputs to spit out the winning lineups that appear the most frequently across thousands of simulations.
When I run the sims for the Super Bowl, I immediately notice an interesting trend where the most frequented lineups are all 5-1 Eagles onslaughts with only one Chief:
This immediately tells me that we should be willing to make teams with five Eagles. Not only is it optimal in these simulations, but it is unlikely to be a popular construction utilized by the field.
🤠 Winning $1,000,000
I’m not going to sugarcoat it. It’s going to be hard to make a unique lineup that can also beat out 470,500 entries for first place. Even those lineups above are likely to be duplicated a few handful of times. It’s probably going to take a slightly funky lineup that wouldn’t make a ton of sense without the benefit of hindsight.
If you don’t have the stomach for getting weird with your lineups, I recommend playing in the smaller contests with less than 10,000 entries.
But if you’re willing to get weird with me, we at least now know the playbook on how to do so.
🤠 How To Bully The Sims
One of my favorite things about Run The Sims is that you can actually adjust the inputs yourself and re-run the sims for various usage scenarios that will spit out more unique lineups than with the baseline assumptions.
For example, if you think Kenneth Gainwell is going to outproduce Miles Sanders, you could go adjust their market share percentage of rushing yards (maybe you flip them and give 41% to Gainwell and 17% to Sanders) and then re-run the sims so you end up with more Gainwell in your lineups.
I also like to change the “points scored” input on the DIY Simulator to build out lineups for game flow scenarios that most people aren’t expecting.
For example, if I project the Chiefs for only 9 points and the Eagles for 6 points, the top lineups unsurprisingly feature both defenses:
Of course, no one in their right mind would actually predict only fifteen total points being scored (the total is 49 at most sportsbooks), but outlier game flows do happen (just ask the Rams and Patriots about their 2019 Super Bowl matchup where only 16 points were scored). And when this does happen, contrarian players can capitalize on it.
Similar to a lot of things in fantasy sports, it’s very simple to make a Showdown lineup. But building a lineup that is both smart and contrarian with a realistic path to first place requires more thought and strategy.
I highly recommend poking around at Run The Sims, which just so happens to be free this week for the Super Bowl. It’ll allow you to mess with various scenarios and more naturally land on unique lineups.
Here’s one lineup I found that I like a lot and accomplishes a bunch of the goals we outlined today:
High ceiling captain
5-1 Eagles construction
$2,000 salary left on the table
Sleeper Chiefs pass catcher who won’t be popular
Just don’t dupe me, bro…
Tell us your favorite Super Bowl bet 🔥
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
8:00 PM • Feb 11, 2023