Who Will Sneak Into The Playoffs?

Andy Reid is just making stuff up at this point...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

The Jacksonville Jaguars started the season 2-6. Pack it up, right?

Nope. They finished the season 7-2 with the exclamation point coming last night in a massive 20-16 win over the Titans to lock up both the AFC South and the 4th seed in the playoffs.

Earlier in the day, the Chiefs clinched the No. 1 overall seed with a 31-13 route of the Raiders.

Today, we'll sweat the remaining playoff jockeying. Here are some things to look for:

• AFC spots up for grabs: The Patriots currently hold the final wildcard spot in the AFC, although the Dolphins and Steelers are both live to get in under certain Patriots loss scenarios. The Dolphins would need the Patriots to lose and beat the Jets, while the Steelers would need the Patriots and Dolphins to lose, as well as beat the Browns.

• NFC spots up for grabs: The Seahawks currently hold the final wildcard spot in the NFC, but the Lions and Packers are both live. The Packers control their own destiny and will clinch a bid if they beat the Lions tomorrow night, while the Lions would need to beat the Packers along with the Seahawks losing to the Rams to sneak in.

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.

• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games

• RANKINGS - Full Week 18 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz

• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.

• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:

• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

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Matt LaMarca is betting: Browns +3

The Browns have not exactly impressed since DeShaun Watson took over at quarterback. They’ve scored 13 points or fewer in three of their past five games, and one of the exceptions was a game where they scored three non-offensive touchdowns. Watson has averaged just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt, which is a far cry from his mark of 9.5 in his final year with the Texans.

However, they appeared to find a bit of a groove last week. They leaned heavily on the run game, and when Watson did drop back, he was extremely efficient. He racked up 169 yards and three scores on just 16 attempts. 

They’ll face a bit of a stiffer challenge vs. the Steelers, but Pittsburgh has probably become a bit overvalued in recent weeks. They’ve done a great job of covering as underdogs, but I’m not sure they deserve to be favored in this spot. I’ll take my chances with the Browns as three-point dogs.

And whether your team is or isn’t on the chopping block, one of the most stressful Sundays of football just got a little more mellow:

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📁 Giants to rollover?

Earlier in the week Giants head coach Brian Daboll said he wouldn't be resting players and would treat their game vs. the Eagles like a normal one, but things appear to have changed since then:

The line on this game has now moved all the way to -15.5 in favor of the Eagles.

📁 Jalen Hurts back to the save the day

Despite a sprained shoulder that he suffered on December 18th, Hurts will return to the lineup today vs. the Giants. While the team would have preferred to let him rest, the stakes are far too high with a first-round bye and home field until the Super Bowl up for grabs.

The big question is whether Hurts will be limited at all. This article speculates we could see a few less-designed runs. 

📁 Will Lamar Jackson play?

Per usual, the Ravens are playing this one close to the vest and are not expected to announce their starting QB until pregame warmups. 

We did get confirmation, however, that RB J.K. Dobbins will not play today in order to focus on next week's Wild Card game.

If the Ravens beat the Bengals today and those teams face each other in the playoffs, home-field advantage will be determined by a coin flip.

📁 Michael Thomas on the move?

The Saints and Thomas agreed on a contract restructure yesterday that will make it easier for the two parties to part ways this offseason.

🤯 The most insane play. Lmao, the Chiefs are crazy.

🤔 Who will be the Broncos head coach? There's some smoke here.

🐦 Is Kliff Kingsbury safe? Hmmm.

💡 We're starting WHO at RB? DFS, man. 

🙏🏻 Damar Hamlin update. Incredible that he's already able to post on Instagram.

🔥 Looking for action today? I can't believe these projections are that low. 

🕵️‍♂️ Contract incentives and records to watch in Week 18. Kendall has you covered.

🗺️ Week 18 DFS. Lol, yup.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Jalen Hurts > Devonta Smith & A.J. Brown

Week 18 is a different monster. It is DFS preseason meets regular season. Massive values open up on the slate with so many games featuring teams with nothing to play for and players resting or seeing limited snaps.

One of the teams that will be going all out on Sunday is the Philadelphia Eagles. Due to losing back-to-back games, they are in a must-win situation. They will clinch a bye and home field throughout the playoffs with a win. A loss would likely drop them all the way to the 5 seed and road game vs. Tampa Bay.

The good news for the Eagles is that MVP candidate Jalen Hurts is expected to return from his shoulder injury and the Giants team resting key pieces for the playoffs. As 14-point home favorites, this game has a chance to be a bloodbath filled with fantasy goodness. 

Hurts ranks number one in QB fantasy points per game this season, due to his dual-threat ability. He is second in rush attempts inside the five, converting 9 of 20 attempts into TDs. He has also been dominant through the air, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (the second-best mark in football).

One thing that will keep his rostership down is the blowout concern, but you should not be worried. With a lead of 15+ this season, Hurts is completing 71.3% of his passes, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, and a 13-1 TD to INT ratio. 

The Eagles are used to playing with big leads with the most 10+ point halftime leads in football (7). In all seven games the Eagles led by double digits at half, Hurts finished as a top 12 QB, and in 6/7 he finished as a top 4 QB, averaging 28 fantasy points per game.

The Eagles' offense is extremely concentrated with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith accounting for 70% of the team's air yards and 55.8% of the team's targets. If Hurts has a big day through the air, both players should have strong performances. 

In games the Eagles had a 10+ lead at halftime, Brown is averaging 24.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game. Smith has been dominating of late with 100+ yards in four of his last five games. 

Stacking Hurts with both stud receivers will differentiate your lineup and you should not be worried about Brown and Smith cannibalizing each other. In games where Brown has scored 15+ fantasy points this season, Smith is averaging 80.4 receiving yards per game, compared to 62.5 in games where Brown scores less than 15.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Lions @ Packers , take it away, LaMarca...

📺 Lions at Packers (-5) – 49.5 total

For the Packers, the playoffs officially start in Week 18. They control their own destiny, so a win over the Lions would send them to the playoffs for the 12th time in the past 14 years. A loss or tie would officially send them home.

The Lions’ playoff bandwagon has lost steam in recent weeks, and their current playoff odds sit at just 17%. They would be eliminated with a loss to the Packers, but a win would keep their hopes alive. They would also need the Seahawks to lose at home to the Rams, and they’re currently listed as six-point favorites.

The fact that this game is being played on Sunday Night Football creates an interesting dynamic. If Seattle wins their matchup, the Lions would have nothing left to play for in this spot. That creates a scenario where motivation could be an issue. Dan Campbell and his team have fought hard all season, but losing a chance to clinch a playoff spot minutes before taking the field would have to be a bit demoralizing.

Still, the fact that they are even in this position has to be considered a positive. It was looking like another lost year in Detroit after starting at just 1-6 through their first seven games, but they rattled off six wins in a seven-week stretch to put themselves back in contention.

The team now has plenty of promise moving forward, particularly on offense. They’ve been one of the best units in football all season, ranking fourth in points per game and third in yards, and Jared Goff has completely revived his stock after being left for dead.

He’s turned in one of the most efficient seasons of his career, averaging 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt with 29 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The rest of his supporting cast is young and talented, and with a full season from Jameson Williams, this offense could be even better next season.

Detroit’s biggest issue has been the defense, ranking dead last in yards per game allowed. They’re 28th in defensive DVOA, and they’ve been particularly exploitable on the ground.

That doesn’t bode well for the Packers. Despite having a first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback, Green Bay has morphed into a running machine this season. They rank third in the league in rushing DVOA, and they’ve been in the middle of the pack in terms of pass rate over expectation. The Packers rumbled for 163 yards last week versus the Vikings, and Aaron Rodgers had just 159 passing yards in a comfortable 24-point win.

Ultimately, I think the best way to approach this game is to wait and see what happens in Seattle.

If the Seahawks win, this number is going to shoot up, with people knowing that Detroit has nothing left to play for. That creates a scenario where the Lions would become undervalued. There is simply no way that Campbell is mailing in the final game of the regular season, especially since the team is preparing like this is a playoff game.

Historically, there has been value in targeting teams that have been eliminated against teams that need to win. Since 1990, non-playoff teams are a whopping 96-59-4 against teams fighting for a playoff spot over the final two weeks.

If you're looking to make a bet RIGHT NOW, this is our best option for the game:

💰 If you missed it, check out our Game Hub!

We have preveiws like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks and more!

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 Zack Moss vs. HOU

As the old saying goes, “a rolling stone gathers no moss”, but Zack Moss should be rolling right into your lineups if you’re playing for your league’s top prize in Week 18.

Grass is green. Water is wet. The sky is blue. Start your running backs against the Texans.

That’s been this season’s tried and true matchup, as the Texans have been the worst defense against opposing fantasy RB. Last week, they let Travis Etienne run wild on them to the tune of 12(!) yards per carry, 100+ yards and a touchdown before the team pulled him. After Etienne left the game, the Texans allowed backup Jaguars RBs JaMycal Hasty and Snoop Conner to also score touchdowns.

Not great, Bob.

Under the Jeff Saturday regime, Moss has seen a ton of opportunity for the Colts as their lead RB, averaging 17 carries per game in his last three contests. While Moss hasn’t been a factor in the receiving game, with just two targets in that same three-game timeframe, there should be more than enough work on the ground for Moss to be a fine start this week. 

🔥 Tyler Conklin @ MIA

Tyler Conklin often flies under the radar, but when you dig into the stats, the more it makes sense for Tyler Conklin to be a top-six TE this week.

We love nothing more than projecting volume for fantasy players (see Moss above), and Conklin has been very projectable for the Jets, especially with noted “elite” QB Joe Flacco under center for Week 18.

Conklin has averaged eight targets per game and double-digit fantasy points in three games with Flacco at QB. Enter the Dolphins, who have been a bottom-three defense vs. TE and third-worst DVOA vs. TE this season. In fact, of the last 11 tight ends the Dolphins have faced, a whopping NINE have put up double-digit PPR performances.

Trying to project the Jets’ offense with their numerous QB changes has been very hot and cold lately, but putting together these puzzle pieces in Week 18 leads to an attractive matchup and outlook for Conklin. Flacco is always willing to dump the ball off to short-area targets and the running game hasn’t been great. So let’s use that to our advantage!