🚀 Will this RB skyrocket in ADP?

I’m lost, but I’m hopeful, baby...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Do you guys remember the 1990s? Remember sitting in the back seat, staring out of the window as Alanis Morissette sang about the 2023 fantasy football landscape?

Because I sure do.

And what it all boils down to is that no one’s really got it figured out just yet.

We need answers, damnit. But due to injuries, lingering contract offers, and looming suspensions, there are a few key players that have left the world of fantasy football holding its breath.

⏳ Alvin Kamara

Kamara’s suspension has been believed to be “not a matter of if, but when.” And the Saints have braced themselves for impact by beefing up their backfield with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller this offseason.

But just yesterday, news broke that Kamara’s felony charge has been lessened to a misdemeanor.

It’s very possible that this news causes Kamara’s ADP to rise. But with the league’s inconsistencies surrounding its use of suspensions in the past, it’s difficult to pinpoint an appropriate ADP for Kamara until anything more concrete is announced.

🩹 Javonte Williams

On Monday, Peter Overzet walked us through the latest update on Denver RB, Javonte Williams. After suffering his ACL injury last season, Williams claims to be ready to run with “violent intentions.”

While we always love to hear good news in a player’s recovery phase, many fans want Williams to take his time before taking the field to not follow in the footsteps of J. K. Dobbins’ 2022 return.

While there are worries about a quick return and Denver did add Samaje Perine to their backfield, it’s worth noting that the Broncos did not draft a RB in 2023. And it really has me turning blue in the face.

🤝 Dalvin Cook

Yes, Dalvin Cook is still a free agent, but his unwillingness to accept any offers on the table does not feel very freeing.

Many drafters are feeling bound by his wide range of outcomes.

Where will he go? Who will be the supporting cast around him? Is it possible for Cook to even come close to recreating his stats from Minnesota?

While it’s been reported that he’s received multiple offers, including one from Miami, Cook doesn’t intend to make a decision until we get closer to training camp. So for now… we wait, and we wait, and we speculate.

Like I was saying, no one’s really got it figured out just yet. But I’ve got one hand in my pocket, and the other is chronically refreshing NFL news.

Rain or shine, the games must go on. This week, Chris Allen breaks down what we know about windy NFL conditions and what it means for fantasy football.

Every team should have a dome. Plain and simple.

We’ve all got a bad-beat story when the elements are a factor, and we’ll have more this season for two reasons.

First, we can’t reasonably plan for things like high winds. Weather models update well after we’ve made moves on the waiver wire. And second, if we want to adjust our lineup, the remaining options reduce our expected results.

So, we need a better idea of what matters when the skies (literally) try to rain on our attempts at being a league winner. But we must work past old tropes we’ve come to accept as true.

🌪 What Do We Already Know About Wind Effects?

Stop me if you’ve seen something like this on social media or heard it on a podcast.

Increased wind speeds mean shorter passes.

Strong winds force teams to run the ball more.

ESPN’s Brian Burke wrote about weather effects in 2012, and his chart measuring average adjusted yards per attempt as a function of windspeed has served as a backstop for weather analysis. Even I used it when looking for data to support my priors about the negative correlation between wind and the passing game.

But since this study was over a decade ago, I updated it with data from the last five years.

There’s nothing wrong with the chart. Nothing wrong with the data. As wind speed increases, passes get shorter. But we can’t infer the same behavior exists between the wind and fantasy production.

We’ve seen QBs like Aaron Rodgers notch three (short) touchdowns in windy conditions. So not every passer has a bad game in bad situations.

Regardless, after seeing the fast downward trend, we assumed a direct connection between the wind and the passing game instead of a generalization. And in doing so, we’ve overlooked some fine print when pulling takeaways from charts like these.

🌪 What’s A Better Way to Use This Data?

To start, consider the sample size. Each point in the above chart is an average across however many games occurred at that wind speed. The more, the better. But if I recreate that same graph without averaging, there’s an obvious issue at the extreme.

Since 2018, there have been 1,311 regular-season games, and only 48 (3.7%) have recorded wind speeds over 20 mph. Look at how few dots there are as the graph extends to the right. So we can’t automatically assume the trend observed between 10 and 20 mph (with more samples) will continue.

But let’s say that it did…

It still doesn’t tell us much about the fantasy implications for the affected QB.

Defensive coverages have put the onus on offenses to be more efficient in their short game. Patrick Mahomes’ 2022 passing aDOT (7.7) was down nearly two full yards from the high-flying attack he commanded during his first full season. Joe Burrow had to find more success in the intermediate parts of the field to keep the Bengals on track.

Shorter passes aren’t necessarily a critical blow when receivers can work after the catch. So I looked at play volume for a more direct effect.

I analyzed play volume in two ways: total offensive plays run and pass rate over expectation (PROE). While total plays could get skewed by more runs, PROE accounts for the game environment to measure what a team should do. And, usually, they should be passing. Nevertheless, if the wind affected passing games, there’d be a similar trend.

Simply put, there wasn’t. Well, at least not right away.

League-wide tendencies remain relatively stable until 20 mph. The lack of samples in this area gives us an incomplete picture but allows us to push back on past biases.

So, shorter passes can be good if the right scheme and personnel are in place.

However, more wind doesn’t always equate to a situation fantasy managers must avoid. Understanding each passer, how they perform normally, and their upcoming matchup gives us a better range of expectations than a flawed rule of thumb.

So, hold tight until you see the forecast get past 20 mph.

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🎥 Episode 1 of Quarterback just dropped. The first four minutes will have you hooked.

🦵 Amazing teams are special! No wait, special teams are amazing!

💸 What stopped J.J. Watt from becoming a Steeler? Brotherly love, that’s what. 

➕ Could an extra BYE week be on the horizon? Some players hope so.

🍦 I scream. You scream. Lamar Jackson treats everyone for ice cream.

📵 Don’t ask Deebo Samuel again. He said what he said.

❤️ Wait. WHO went 1.01? If it’s for charity, we love it.

🦬 How are you betting on the Bills this season? Everything you need, minus the folding table…

We often use the gift of hindsight to prepare for the NFL season. But today, our new betting analyst, Matt McCuen uses Fantasy Life’s player projections to take a look at player futures.

💰 Derek Carr Over 3800.5 Passing Yards

• +100 on BetMGM

• Fantasy Life Projection:  3,814.9

The veteran out of Fresno State will be playing for a new team for the first time in his NFL career since being drafted by the Raiders in 2014.

From a statistical standpoint, Derek Carr is the best quarterback in the history of the Raiders. Carr ranks first all-time in passing yards (35,222) and first all-time in touchdown passes thrown (217). Carr also ranks first in completion percentage and game-winning drives as a Raiders quarterback.

So, after all of the stats I gave you, why would the Raiders want to move on from the thirty-two-year-old signal caller?

Las Vegas is entering a rebuilding phase, and they feel that having Carr on the team would not benefit them. This meant that one team would get lucky and add a motivated veteran quarterback to their roster.

That lucky team is the New Orleans Saints.

Derek Carr Passing Yards By Year

• 2014: 3,270

• 2015: 3,987

• 2016: 3,937

• 2017: 3,496

• 2018: 4,049

• 2019: 4,054

• 2020: 4,103

• 2021: 4,804

• 2022: 3,522

It has been a quarterback carousel since the departure of future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees. Brees was the Saints starting quarterback from 2007-2020.

Since 2020 New Orleans has had five different quarterbacks start a game under center. The team is hopeful that they will have just one quarterback starting under center this year in the form of Carr.

New Orleans has been one of the most successful franchises in all of football since 2010, but the last two years in The Big Easy have been disappointing. The Saints are hopeful that with the addition of Carr, the team will find their way back into the postseason.

Carr has gone over this season-long prop six of his nine years in the NFL.

It is also important to note that he will have an additional game this season that he did not have in the years he has gone over this number.

Carr likely would have gone over this number again last season, but he did not play in the team's final two games and ended the year with 3,522 passing yards. If you break this prop down, we will need Carr to throw for an average of 223.6 yards per game.

Carr is set up for success in this offense as the Saints represent one of the best wide receiver cores in all of football, led by Michael Thomas and Chris Olave. Carr also gets to work with one of the best receiving running backs, Alvin Kamara.

In his nine-year career, Carr has averaged 248 passing yards per game. Nine years is a large sample size, and playing in the worst division in football this season, there is a chance that Carr will go over that number.