Will Joe Mixon Be A Bellcow In 2022?

Grab a bowl of Skyline chili, we're digging into the Bengals today...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Babbel:

It feels like every year we draft Joe Mixon as if he'll finally become a bellcow and yet it never fully happens.

That doesn't mean he wasn't productive--he was third in the league last year in rushing (1,205 yards)--but in fantasy we need our backs catching passes to reach truly elite bellcow status.

Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like we can expect that to happen in 2022:

Per ESPN's Ben Baby, Mixon was on the field for 75% of the team's first and second downs last year, but only in on 17% of third downs. 

The hard truth is the team doesn't want to utilize him in that role:

Mixon is a really tough click for me at the 1/2 turn of drafts. I much prefer the WRs in that range, or a back like D'Andre Swift who we know will catch passes.

In today's newsletter, we'll dig in deeper to the Bengals offense and present you with some other ways to get exposure to one of the best offenses in the league.

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🙏 R.I.P Tony Siragusa and Jaylon Ferguson. Ex NFL DT "The Goose" and Ravens EDGE Jaylon Ferguson both passed away yesterday. 

🥈 Who is the WR2 in Baltimore? Opportunity is knocking. 

⚡ Mike Williams vs. Keenan Allen. Here's who you should be prioritizing. 

🗑️ Dan Snyder is a scumbag. Mina Kimes has the details.

🏈 One last offseason move for all 32 NFL teams. Field Yates cooks up final free-agent signings, extensions and trades to complete training camp rosters.

🐟 Scott Fish Bowl Giveaway. We have 2 entries up for grabs. Details here.

Our two best ball bros, Pete & Jonathan Fuller, go back and forth on how they are approaching the Cincinnati Bengals in Underdog Fantasy Drafts. Plus, an illustration by Samantha Holt.

Pete: The Bengals are a very interesting team heading into 2022. They currently have three players being drafted within the top 25 picks of drafts (Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins), which has propelled Joe Burrow’s ADP up to pick 70. Burrow feels particularly tricky for me because he doesn’t offer the rushing upside of the other QBs going near him (Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts).

Do you think Burrow is undervalued or overvalued at his current ADP? 

He is not a QB I am aggressively targeting because I can get exposure to his ceiling outcomes via his pass-catchers. In fact, the Bengals are actually one of my favorite teams to stack without the QB.

Which Bengals receiver is your favorite to take at their current cost?

Pete:  The safe answer is to say Boyd. He’s going nearly 100 picks after both Chase and Higgins, he’s been rock solid his entire career playing out of the slot, and also contains massive upside if there were an injury in front of him.

But I’m never one to play it safe, which is why I’m going to say Higgins is my favorite to take at the current cost around the 2/3 turn. For me, there is a big tier break after Higgins and A.J. Brown go off the board and before the Chargers WRs and Michael Pittman. And to push it further, I don’t really understand why Higgins isn’t going closer to the 1/2 turn and ahead of CeeDee Lamb:

I think people get too caught up on a player being the “WR2” on their own team when those designations are completely meaningless and have no true impact on fantasy scoring. We want stud players on offenses that are going to score a ton of points. If the points pie is big enough, it doesn’t matter how many players are saddling up to take a slice. And that’s how I feel about the Bengals and their extremely pass-happy offense. 

Here’s the real question, though…who are you drafting on this offense after Boyd? Any love for the TEs or backup RBs??

Jonathan: The next three Bengals by ADP are Hayden Hurst (181), Chris Evans (211), and Samaje Perine (215), but the only one of those guys I have really been drafting so far is Evans. I think there is a chance he is named the backup to Mixon at some point this summer and his ADP could jump multiple rounds as a result. 

Hurst is somebody I know I should be drafting more often because he has weekly, multi-TD upside in this offense, but he isn’t one of my favorite late-round TEs so I only have him on teams where I can grab him as a cheap week 17 correlation play for a Bills stack.

Perine is someone I’m fine with waiting to draft until later in the summer when we have more clarity on the backfield depth chart. I don’t expect his ADP to rise all that much if he does hold on to the #2 job, so I’ll only start drafting him once we have more information.

If you'd like to load up on Chase and Higgins like Pete and Jonathan, join us on Underdog Fantasy. Fantasy Life readers get up to $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE.  

With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on Cincinnati WR, Tee Higgins. Take it away, Matt...

It’s easy and necessary to get caught up in all of the excitement around star Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase, he’s one of the most enthralling young talents at the position. Don’t let that enthusiasm cause you to forget just how good his running mate, Tee Higgins, is at this stage.

Higgins showed some solid separation chops in Year 1 but took things to another level in Year 2.

He cleared that 70% success rate vs. man coverage threshold we like to see from outside receivers and kicked his success rate vs. zone (80%) and press (73.5%) up as a second-year wideout. Coming into the NFL, I thought Higgins would be that classic, throwback ball-winning No. 2 possession receiver. He has those skills, for sure, but has been a far better deep separator than imagined. His high success rates on intermediate and downfield routes, when asked to run them, have held steady through two seasons.

With Chase owning the X-receiver role in the Bengals’ offense, Higgins subs in at the flanker spot. He lined up outside on 75.2% of his sampled snaps and was off the line for 59.2%. That helps him see far fewer routes against press coverage than Chase and therefore, get a few more layups.

As you’d expect, he also isn’t the key focus of the defense either. Higgins was doubled on 2.1% of his routes, while Chase checked in 6.8%. Chase could see that number rise in Year 2 after a rookie season littered with highlights. However, defenses aren’t going to enjoy picking their poison between these two players.

In addition to his work as a downfield separator, he also makes contested catches to stack big plays. Early in the season while recovering from a shoulder injury, Higgins actually struggled a bit to regain footing in tight coverage. Understandable, but it wasn’t long before he returned to form. He finished his RP sample with an 81% contested catch rate while seeing a contested target on 31.3% of his sampled looks.

Winning the ball in traffic, especially down the field is his trump card trait.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have a chance to be the new Mike Evans and Chris Godwin; not a No. 1 and No. 2 but a true 1a, 1b tandem. We don’t need to waste precious earth seconds arguing about who is better, both are excellent. The Bengals are now spoiled at this position for years to come.

For more Reception Perception, sign up here... And tell Matt we sent you!

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, our Senior Analyst & Director of Social, Kendall Valenzuela previews the Tennessee Titans...

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a stunning 12-5 season in 2021 where they clinched the AFC’s 1-seed for the third time in franchise history. Head coach Mike Vrabel is returning for his fifth season, after winning the Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year award. Of course, we all remember a shocking trade that went down during the offseason, but can key players keep them as top contenders in the AFC South?

Despite winning 12 games last season and 11 the year prior, the Titans win total for 2022 sits right at 9 games per MGM. The question remains if Vrabel and Co. did enough during the offseason to replace their superstar WR and finally find success in the postseason.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Traded AJ Brown to the Eagles for the No. 18 overall pick in the 2022 Draft and a 2022 third-round pick.

• Acquired WR Robert Woods from the Rams in exchange for a 2023 sixth-round pick.

• Lost RB D’Onta Foreman to the Panthers in free agency

• Signed TE Anthony Firsker to a one-year, $6 million deal with the Titans after being released by the Browns

• Drafted Arkansas WR Treylon Burks and Liberty QB Malik Willis

✨ Team vibes

The Tennessee Titans have limited weapons left after Ryan Tannehill (I know, I know) and Derrick Henry. Obviously, the loss of AJ Brown removed some serious power from the offense, but the team tried to revamp with the two signings of Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, along with the addition of Treylon Burks in the draft. It remains to be seen if rookie QB, Malik Willis will see any starting time this season.

Tannehill had good enough numbers in 2021, especially considering all the injuries the team faced. His overlooked fantasy moments were brought on by his seven rushing touchdowns (long-live the quarterback rushing prop). Although it’s probably smart to not expect the 34-year-old quarterback to stay on the same average of 16 rushing yards per game pace.

The question with Derrick Henry is if he can still perform as an absolute unit. Henry averaged 27.4 carries per game and 4.3 yards per carry in 2021. The potential upside for Henry’s upcoming season is his high usage rate and the potential for him to get more involved in the passing game with Brown's exit.

🎯Draft targets

• Derrick Henry (Underdog ADP 7.5)

👋Draft fades

• Treylon Burks (Underdog ADP 75.9)

• Ryan Tannehill (Underdog ADP 182.8)

• Austin Hooper (Underdog ADP 200.3)