Why The Best RB Prospect Is A Trap

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More RBs To Avoid … This Time In Fantasy

Underdog drafts are in full swing, and while it isn’t even April yet, the early ADP is a pretty good indicator of what your home league draft might look like once we reach the summer. Sure, things will change, especially with the NFL Draft about a month away. 

Looking at the early ADP, there are a few players that stand out as potential avoids for Adam Pfeifer. Again, so much can change, so it’s important to remember what Ian Hartitz preaches: Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.

De’Von Achane | RB | MIA

• Underdog ADP: 13.2

I highlighted Achane as a post-free-agency fantasy football loser, and the more I think about it, the more I’ll likely be avoiding him in the first round of drafts this year. There is so much change in Miami right now, between the coaching staff, quarterback and wide receiver room. Achane is the only constant, and he should see plenty of volume.

It may just be a different volume.

Receptions have been a huge part of Achane’s game since entering the NFL. Over the past two seasons, Achane has averaged 72.5 catches and 86 targets, meshing perfectly with Mike McDaniel’s scheme and Tua Tagovailoa’s tendencies. But the changes in this Miami offense will directly impact Achane, especially his targets in the passing game.

Over the past two seasons, new Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has had a very healthy 15% scramble rate, while only sporting a checkdown rate of 6.7%. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.5% scramble rate and 14.5% checkdown rate during that same span. There also might be fewer designed/schemed targets for Achane with McDaniel no longer calling plays. His offenses have been very fantasy-friendly, involving plenty of motion, shifts and space creation. Last year, Achane saw 20 targets from motion, which was tied for the fifth-most among running backs. And in 2024, no running back saw more motion targets than Achane (31).

Fading a player with the home run-hitting ability of Achane is scary, but I’m expecting more doubles and singles than long balls this season.

TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE

• Underdog ADP: 48.3

Speaking of home run-hitting running backs, Henderson posted four different runs of 50-plus yards as a rookie, but his usage was underwhelming, especially after being selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Henderson logged 43% of the offensive snaps last season, while commanding 42% of the rush attempts and 36% of the routes, all below Rhamondre Stevenson. The veteran also handled 88% of the long down and distance snaps, as well as 67% of the two-minute drill, according to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report. 

And during the playoffs, the utilization got even worse.

During New England’s Super Bowl run, Stevenson emerged as the clear lead running back, logging 71% of the snaps and 61% of the rush attempts. Henderson averaged just 8.8 touches per game throughout the playoffs, while playing just 31% of the snaps during that stretch. Overall, in games Henderson and Stevenson were both active, the rookie averaged under 11 touches and just 8.4 PPR points per game.

Henderson should see more involvement in Year 2, but this feels like a split backfield at the very best. And while everyone wants him to go away, Stevenson was strong last year, ranking third in yards per touch (5.9), 10th in yards per route run (1.45) and first in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.4).

Who’s Going To Win The 2026 NFL MVP Award?

If you’re betting the NFL MVP, you’re not just picking the best player—you’re betting history.

And history is loud.

With rare exception, this is a quarterback award. The market reflects it, the voters reinforce it and every season drives the point home.

In 2025, Christian McCaffrey turned in one of the most productive non-QB seasons in recent memory and barely cracked the top four in voting.

A quarterback has now won MVP in 13 straight seasons.

Since 2000, just four running back outliers:

• Marshall Faulk (2000)

• Shaun Alexander (2005)

• LaDainian Tomlinson (2006)

• Adrian Peterson (2012)

Wide receivers? Tight ends? Never happened. You’ve got better historical odds betting a kicker.

Four decades ago, linebacker Lawrence Taylor was celebrated as league MVP. That’s the last time a position other than QB or RB was honored.

So, yes, you can bet on a non-QB. You can also light your money on fire. And the books know it.

At DraftKings, the top 27 players on the MVP board are quarterbacks. That includes:

• Kyler Murray (40/1)

• Michael Penix Jr. (100/1)

• Aaron Rodgers (100/1)

Two guys who may not even start, and another who’s currently unemployed.

All with shorter odds than Jahmyr Gibbs or McCaffrey.

What a world.

So, how do we attack it?

Fantasy

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news and memes from our merry band of football nerds …

🤔 Should you buy, sell or hold Emeka Egbuka in dynasty? Good question.

💪 RB Super Model Week continues with Dwain’s profiles on Jadarian Price and Mike Washington Jr.

🤑 JSN wasn’t the only WR to get paid yesterday. Congrats to the Bobo.

⚰️ It might be over for Kaleb Johnson. The Steelers add a running back.

⚡️ Could a Chargers WR be on the trade block? Interesting stuff.

🙏 This would be a great fit. DJM + KC = a competent WR room for once?!

Is Love Better Than Bijan?

We all love to make comparisons. They make the world go ‘round, don’t they? The fun debates of present day against players from the past is a never-ending talking point. With the Rookie Super Model, we can compare prospects from different years. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland compared this year’s class with the classes dating back to the model’s inception in 2017. How does Jeremiyah Love compare to current studs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs? Find out.