Whoa, We Got A Trade

Here we go...

August 22, 2024

Aug. 23, 2024

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I love the NFL.

The second we start to get comfortable with depth charts after a few preseason games, they go and throw us a curveball.

In a rare trade within the division, Washington sent Jahan Dotson (and a 5th-round pick) to Philadelphia in exchange for a 2025 3rd-round pick (and two 7ths).

Peter Overzet

While this doesn’t flip the ADP board on its head, there are a couple of fantasy shakeups to be found on the periphery…

🍼 New opportunity for the Washington young guns. People seem excited about extra targets for Terry McLaurin, but he was already going to get as much as he could handle. The real bump here is for Dyami Brown (lock for 2-WR sets) and the rookies—TE Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey—who now have a clear path to getting on the field quicker and earning a role. Both are great late-round picks in competitive leagues.

🦅 A muddy situation in Philly. The Eagles have been desperate for a third WR for a while now, but this feels more like a salve than a solution. Dotson takes a big stock hit and is no guarantee to ultimately beat out rookies Johnny Wilson and Anias Smith, the former of which has been a standout at camp.

Now let’s ship Brandon Aiyuk somewhere and really get this party started…

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Dwain McFarland’s Perfect RB Draft Strategy
Watercooler: The return of Love/Hate

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DRAFT STRATEGY

The Perfect RB Draft Strategy

by Dwain McFarland

When developing our strategy for drafting fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:

Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later and vice versa.

Using these simple concepts, along with our fantasy football rankings—which consider your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.

Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access fantasy football ADP data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.

So far, we have outlined the perfect strategy for QB, WR, and TE. Today, we will analyze the RB landscape to unveil the optimal draft strategy for the position in 2024.

Running Back Values: Strategy Pillars

Below is an outline of my favorite RBs to target at value based on ADP in 2024.

Rounds 1 to 3

Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are my Tier 1 backs and are all viable picks in the first half of the first round. For a full breakdown of their greatness and why they are worthy of an early pick, you can read all about it in my tiers article, but I want to focus on the non-first-rounders for the sake of the "value" part of this conversation.

I consider CMC, Hall and Robinson all on par with CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja'Marr Chase in PPR and half PPR—it comes down to preference and knowing how your leaguemates draft. If you think the better value will be at WR later or are worried about Lamb and Chase's contract status, take the RB. If you think the better value will be at RB, or you don't want the risk of coach-tinkering derailing your top-six pick, go with the WR.

Now, let's dig into those value strategy pillars.

De'Von Achane | Miami Dolphins

ESPN ADP: 33
Sleeper ADP: 23
Yahoo ADP: 26

Would an RB who averaged 19.8 PPG in contests when his backfield mate Raheem Mostert was healthy interest you?

While your leaguemates perform mental somersaults to name all the reasons Achane can't succeed (i.e., injury-prone, too small, efficiency regression), you, the sharp drafter, will realize we are drafting this man closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Oh, that write-up isn't enough? Well, check out what Weighted Opportunity had to say about Achane in Ryan Heath's fantastic piece over at Fantasy Points.

Achane projects as my RB13 based on a CONSERVATIVE utilization similar to last season. He morphs into a top-five running back if he modestly improves. He is the RB13 on ESPN, RB10 on Sleeper and RB11 on Yahoo. If Achane hits his upside, it will crush your leaguemates' souls; if he doesn't, he is still a high-end RB2.

This is the type of bet we want to make in late Round 2 or early Round 3—especially if we took a WR in Round 1.

Fades at ADP: Josh Jacobs (Round 3), Joe Mixon (Round 3), Rachaad White (Late Round 3/Early Round 4) – I am only taking these players if they fall into Rounds 4 or 5. They all project for volume but are overpriced versus talented WRs in the same draft range. If I started WR-WR, I might be willing to grab Jacobs or Mixon at the end of Round 3 in a 2WR league, but I would not grab another one in Round 4.

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