Who Loves A Good Carnival?

Who doesn’t love a good carnival? Cotton candy. Fried everything. Rides that sometimes make you question those previous food choices. It’s fun and frenzy all at once. 

I especially love it when the carnivals happen on NFL Sundays … and Thursdays and Mondays. The Bengals were really good at those high-scoring, back-and-forth games in 2024, eight times scoring 30 points … and losing four of them!

With all those shootout losses, it would be easy to think they led the league in points against. They were actually tied for seventh (with the Raiders), with the Panthers “leading” the league in points allowed with an astounding 534. The Cowboys were second at 468, which means they essentially faced the Bengals (472 points scored) over the course of the season.  

Those carnival games are fun for fantasy, too, both teams punching back at one another like the best moments in Rocky movies. Ja’Marr Chase’s epic 11-264-3 game came in a 35-34 loss to the Ravens. Drake London’s monster 10-187-2 game was a Week 18 battle against the Panthers that needed OT to finish 44-38. RB Jonathan Taylor got in the act, his 218-yard, 3-TD game landing in a 38-30 victory over the Titans.

With fantasy draft szn beckoning, it’s a good time to take a look at some players on teams with potentially bad defenses. For that, we’ll look at our handy DvP tool and the teams that were among the worst defenses. But don’t teams improve from one season to the next? Well, teams don’t often go from being turnstile defenses to the 1970s Steel Curtain in one offseason. So even if those teams’ defenses improve somewhat, the carnival should come to town often enough.

The ADP and Projections tools will also get a workout, so we can see which players might outperform where they’re being drafted. Our Strength of Schedule tool is also a big help with measuring the quality of the opponent, who may help the carnival come to town.

Good Players To Target On Teams With Bad Defenses

One team that will be left off this exercise is the Bengals. Their main players are pretty high in ADP, so there may not be much of a discount unless Joe Burrow goes to Mahomes circa 2018 levels of production. These three players are just a few who could pinball their way to some big afternoons this fall.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (ADP: RB16): Dave Canales was speaking the truth when he said that he was going to emphasize the running game in 2024. In Hubbard’s seven games where he went for 92 or more yards, the Panthers allowed 22 or more points in six of those games. They lost four of them. So even in a negative game script, Hubbard got the rock. That 85 UR score was fourth in the NFL, so even with the addition of Rico Dowdle, Hubbard will get plenty of work this season. The Panthers’ defense allowed the most fantasy points to running backs (28.5) and the second most to quarterbacks (19.9), so there shouldn’t be any 10-7 snoozers.

Travis Hunter, Jaguars (ADP: WR30): If not for the Panthers, the Jaguars would have had the worst defense in the NFL, finishing second in RB points allowed (25.3) and third in QB points allowed (19.3). Yes, Hunter could bolster the Jags’ defense with however much time he spends on that side of the ball, but he’ll still see plenty of targets playing Robin to Brian Thomas Jr.’s Batman. Hunter’s projections—70.5 receptions, 864.5 receiving yards, and 5.2 TDs—may be his floor when looking at a QB SOS where the Jaguars are ninth, but just .2 behind second place. 

Chris Olave, Saints (ADP: W34): Olave is WR38 and down at pick 97.2 on ESPN, but he’s the expected No. 1 target for the Saints—apologies to Rashid Shaheed and cooterdoodle—and he could be a steal if he can avoid the concussions. The Saints allowed 238.6 passing yards and 103.9 rushing yards per game—both sixth in the league—and drafted five defensive players this year, though none before the third round. This is a rebuilding team that will give up points, making Olave a primary target. As far as the quarterback, that’s a good question.