🎭 What's At Stake For The Final 4 Teams

I'm going to watch the games at .5x speed so the season lasts longer...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Athletic:

We made it to Conference Championship Sunday.

There's two games on tap today and we got you covered with overnight news updates, comprehensive game previews, and our favorite DFS plays and bets to make.

Before we dive in, let's set the stage for what's on the line today...

👑 Can the Bengals back up the smack & secure the throne?

Last year Cincy was the Cinderella story, but just a year later they've turned into cocky incumbents. From Eli Apple mocking the Bills to the mayor saying Joe Burrow is Patrick Mahomes' father, everyone in Ohio is getting in on the fun.

If they secure the win, they'll be the unquestioned kings of the AFC and the chirping will be warranted. If not...the fluke whispers will start up again and Apple will need to stay off Twitter.

🏆 A legacy-building game for Patrick Mahomes

In a lot of ways, this is a freeroll spot for Mahomes and the Chiefs. If they lose, it's because he had a bum ankle. If they win? The legend of Mahomes will grow to larger-than-life proportions.

Think "Mahomes Ankle Game" alongside "Jordan Flu Game."

You'll see some talking heads say his legacy is at risk, but we know that's not true. He'll be back in this spot again and again regardless of what happens today. That's why this is a legacy-building game and not legacy-defining.

🎭 Brock Purdy: the next great QB or sun-running fraud?

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, Purdy has undoubtedly made himself the smart money favorite to be the Niners starting QB in 2023. But that doesn't mean the media won't use this game as a referendum on whether he's a good QB or not.

A win cements Mr. Irrelevant as the greatest underdog story in years, while a loss and implosion performance would bring on a chorus of "system QB" chants and cries to give Trey Lance another shot.

☝️ The Eagles: Super Bowl bound or choke artists?

The Eagles have been the consensus best team for most of the season. They are loaded at basically every position. They are home favorites vs. a team led by a 7th round rookie QB. They are supposed to win.

If they lose it will go down as a massive choke job and send Philly into a long, dark offseason.

🏆 We have your gamedays COVERED

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.

• INACTIVES - updated at 1:30pm ET for 3pm kickoff

• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

• RANKINGS - Full Conference Championship rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz

• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.

• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool, and we'll tell you the best option:

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📁 Eli Mitchell is M.I.A.

We won't know for certain until inactives are released at 1:30pm ET, but things are not trending in a positive direction for Niners RB Eli Mitchell. Mitchell missed all three practice days this week and the team elevated RB Tevin Coleman from the practice squad yesterday.

Mitchell had been eating into Christian McCaffrey's carries in a meaningful way, so this news would set him up for a massive workload vs. the Eagles.

📁 Mecole Hardman officially questionable

Hardman got in three limited practices this week and is listed as questionable for the game. Here's what Andy Reid said about his status:

Hardman will be a key piece in helping Patrick Mahomes get the ball out quickly, so this will be an important status to monitor.

😠 The Chiefs might want to pressure Burrow. Here's why.

🥳 Gronk could return? Oh boy, here we go again.

🤔 It's looking like a DeVonta Smith game. Are we fading AJ Brown?

🏆 Would a 49ers win cement this season as Shanahan's best? The Athletic thinks so...

💸 Danny Dimes is gonna get paid. That's a big number being floated.

🍺 Dad of the year. This is so wholesome.

🦅 An Eagles great will be the honorary captain tomorrow. An iconic photo.

💰 The most bet props at BetMGM. Playing or Fading?

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Patrick Mahomes > Kadarius Toney & JuJu Smith-Schuster (Ja'Marr Chase bring back)

With just two games this weekend, we have arrived at our final non-showdown DFS slate of the year…and what a slate it is. The four best teams in football will battle it out with three of the top six scoring defenses and three of the top seven scoring offenses on the slate.

On slates this small, gaining leverage is critical to increasing your chances at taking down a tournament. With that mindset, I am going to swing big and target Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes will of course be battling a high ankle sprain, but that is also going to make less popular than he should be. Currently, Run The Sims projects him at just 16% exposure, with Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts combining for over 70% of the projected rostership. That dynamic coupled with his high price tag will make Mahomes lineups very unique.

This strategy could blow up in our faces, but after practicing in full all week, I think it's more likely that we see vintage Mahomes than an ineffective, hobbled, shell of himself.

Almost everyone who plays Mahomes will look to stack him with Travis Kelce, who is coming off a game in which he set the playoff record for receptions by a tight end with 14 while also adding 98 yards and 2 TDs.

But what if Mahomes has a big day and it's not Kelce? Prior to last week's explosion, Kelce had gone seven straight games without a TD. If that is the case, Kadarius Toney and JuJu Smith-Schuster likely lead the way for the Chiefs.

Toney was the star of Dwain’s Utilization Report video and has slate-breaking upside. He has only played 29% of the Chiefs' passing plays in the last four weeks, but has earned targets on 26% of his routes run.

JuJu has been silent over his last four games, seeing a grand total of 11 targets during that time span. However, going for a GPP win is not for the faint of heart. Smith-Schuster has a 35.6% optimal rate and the second-highest optimal leverage on the entire slate, per Run The Sims.

I’ll be running it back with Ja’Marr Chase, who does project to be the most popular play on the slate at 59%, but the rest of our team makes us different enough that we don’t need to worry about it.

We have Chase projected for 12.78 targets and that kind of volume should pay off in a major way. Chase has 16 career games with double-digit targets, averaging 113 receiving yards, 1 TD, and 25 PPR PPG.

It's playoff time, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for both Conference Championship games in our Game Hub! Take it away, Chris...

📺 Niners at Eagles (-2.5) – 46.5 total

I hoped these two teams would face off in the NFC Championship Game. Partly because this isn’t a rematch from last year or earlier in the regular season like the Bengals-Chiefs game. But also because they’re the two best teams by our ELO model. I mentioned that the final four are all top five in total DVOA, but the 49ers and Eagles are both in the top three. You couldn’t pit two better squads against each other and San Francisco, at least on paper, has the edge.

All right. Let’s get this out of the way. Brock Purdy has played well. Is he worthy of an Offensive Rookie of the Year award? Well, no. It’s not called “Rookie of Part of the Year,” despite Purdy having the highest EPA per dropback among the freshmen passers since Week 14. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been part of the team’s success.

You can contextualize Purdy’s on-field performance all you want. His receiver’s after-the-catch abilities account for 48.7% of his passing yards in the playoffs. Sure. The 49ers’ personnel create too many mismatches, giving Purdy easy paths to first downs. Okay, so he works well within Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. But over his last two games, he’s been more efficient than Patrick Mahomes by EPA. He has zero turnover-worthy plays per PFF. So, let’s give Purdy his due while acknowledging the crew around him.

Now let’s say the Eagles’ pass coverage short-circuits his processing. Opposing teams have found more success on the interior, which bodes well for Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk. Still, for the sake of argument, let’s assume San Francisco needs a counterpunch. If so, the 49ers’ offense still has the upper hand.

There’s a sample-size difference, as the Eagles have played just one playoff game, but the comparison between the defenses is stark. And taking each team’s competition into account doesn’t make me feel much better about Philadelphia’s run defense.

Saquon Barkley had two explosive plays on his nine rushing attempts in the divisional match. Brock Purdy won’t run like Daniel Jones, but Deebo Samuel out of the backfield could match Jones’ average of 3 yards before contact. Injuries may hamper San Francisco’s running game, but they have the advantage heading into Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Eagles get the impossible task of keeping up with the 49ers. We saw flashes of it with Seattle, and Dallas was within one (hilarious) possession of pulling off the upset. Both had the right ideas of challenging San Francisco’s defense, but their personnel came up short. Luckily, Philadelphia has the right staff and players to execute.

Let’s start with the passing game. Geno Smith’s interception didn’t come until the second half, and Dak Prescott was a step behind the 49ers’ defense. But both found a modicum of success on short-area attempts when they got the ball out fast.

Smith used quick-game passes on 56.1% of his dropbacks to combat San Francisco's pass rush. Dak was right behind him at 50.0%. As a result, each quarterback saw over 75.0% of their throws at depths of ten air yards or less. In those scenarios, the onus is on the receiver to keep the ball moving past the catch point. CeeDee Lamb (4.0 yards after the catch per reception) did it for Prescott, but Dallas needed more players like him on the field. Coincidentally, Hurts has them.

Hurts threw more short passes (66.7%), but his pass catchers averaged over a yard more after the catch. It was how DeVonta Smith found the paint last Saturday. And with Smith and Dallas Goedert leading the team in YAC during the Divisional Round and throughout the regular season (when Goedert was healthy), the passing game alone presents a problem for the 49ers. And then there’s Hurts’ rushing ability.

Having a mobile quarterback is another way to neutralize a pass rush. Two designed runs from Daniel Jones made up nearly half of the Giants' first downs on the ground.

Josh Allen barreled his way into the end zone for Buffalo’s only score. Hurts ended the regular season with the most rushing first downs of any passer despite missing two games. Plus, he’s been the second-most efficient rusher on designed attempts through the Divisional Round.

The 49ers’ defense will stress the Eagles up front and along the perimeter throughout the game, but Hurts’ dual-threat ability will be their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Mark Drumheller, one of our betting experts, seems to agree.

The SNF hammer and final game of the weekend is a doozy. Take it away, Geoff...

📺 Bengals @ Chiefs (-1.5) – 48.5 total

This line opened at Bengals +1.0 but flipped the day after to Bengals -1.0. It has bounced around all week and was once as high as Bengals -2.5 in spots before settling back to where it is now, which is the Bengals as small underdogs at +1.5

Most of the early week bets and handle has been coming in on the Bengals, but the injury Patrick Mahomes sustained in the Divisional Round has played a massive role in driving the action.

The fact that there was a push to +2.5 and then a drop back down suggests there was a clear buyback on the Chiefs after some better news on Mahomes came out Wednesday. As of Friday, Mahomes has been cleared.

As far as trends go, Cincinnati is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, and are now 17-4 as the away team since the beginning of 2021. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been far worse against the spread, posting a 2-6-1 ATS record at home this year.

The Bengals enter this game relatively healthy.

None of their main offensive skill players are in danger of missing the matchup. On defense, DE Trey Hendrickson had an X-Ray after the Divisional Round but reportedly got a clean bill of health this week. The Bengals’ Offensive Line remains without three starters after Alex Cappa (ankle) was ruled out early this week.

As for the Chiefs, the team confirmed that Patrick Mahomes did suffer a high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, although Andy Reid noted that the injury wasn’t as serious as the one he suffered in 2019 (which he also played through).

The other player to watch on the Chiefs is WR Mecole Hardman, who hasn’t played since Week 9 with a pelvis injury. Hardman reportedly responded well to rest last week and has a shot at suiting up for this game.

Patrick Mahomes managed 7.4 yards per pass attempt and a 0.27 EPA rating in the second half last week, which was very similar to what he posted in the first half of the game prior to his injury. While he didn’t throw a pass from outside the pocket last week after he returned, his numbers on throws made from inside the pocket this season include a 71% completion rate and 8.3 yards per attempt.

The Chiefs should also be able to game plan for a more pocket-based Mahomes this week, which could even help with his efficiency. Kadarius Toney played just 29% of the snaps last week and ran only 12 routes, but still received seven targets which led all Chiefs WRs along with a carry that went for 14 yards.

A less than 100% Patrick Mahomes would likely mean that we’d see more plays designed to get Toney out in space fast. Toney’s average depth of target last week was miniscule, but that was likely related to Mahomes being more pocket-bound in the second half. Toney himself also still had an effective game, gaining 50 yards on six touches.

The Chiefs should also be looking to up their run game usage this week. Isiah Pacheco was the other main cog in Kansas City that got a bump in usage against Jacksonville, taking double-digit carries for the first-time in three games.

Pacheco’s 70.2 yard rushing projection on Fantasy Life gives us a solid 11.8% edge to work with and makes him a great over target on his current 48.5 yard rushing prop. With a projection for 12.7 rushing attempts, the over on his 11.5 carries prop is worth looking at as well.

The Chiefs allowed just 5.56 yards per attempt last week to Trevor Lawrence but will be in much tougher waters against Joe Burrow, who was hyper-efficient against the Chiefs in their first meeting, completing 80% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt.

Ja’Marr Chase was efficient the first time these teams played this season – posting a 7-97 line on eight targets – but the Chiefs dropping back into more zone coverage kept him from finding the end zone. However, a bigger game seems very possible this week against a secondary that ceded the eighth-most catches and second-most TDs to the WR position.

Chase leads all WRs in projected targets this week on Fantasy Life, with 12.88, and also has a solid 95.1 receiving yardage projection. With an 83.5 yardage prop on BetMGM, we have a nice 11.6-yard edge to work with, making his over worth strong consideration for betting cards.

Finally, if you’re looking for some kind of unsung hero to emerge, don’t be shocked if the Bengals’ fourth-string WR Trenton Irwin pops up with a TD. He’s seen five red zone targets since Week 11, which ties him with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd over that span, and caught four TDs this year on just 23 targets.

The red zone specialist will take on a Chiefs’ secondary that gave up seven red zone TDs to WRs this year – the second most in the league – and has a tasty +600 line for an anytime TD this week.

Burrow has averaged a 73% completion rate against the Chiefs in three games, with 8 TDs against just one INT.

Even with Mahomes at full power, the Chiefs have failed to beat a Burrow-led Bengals team three times already, so betting them at near even money to change that trend, especially with Mahomes injured, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

The Bengals – who are a shockingly good 27-12 ATS since the start of 2021 – remain the play and should book a trip to their second Super Bowl in a row this Sunday.