"What Ifs" Worth Drafting

Don't underestimate this upside ...

Author

Joe Metz
April 01, 2026

Upside is tantalizing. The idea that something amazing could happen, even if improbable, carries far more influence than the idea that something could go wrong. It can often blind us. Just take the Mystery Box vs. Boat example from Family Guy.

As influential as the concept of upside is in fantasy football, there are often cases that go completely overlooked and drowned out by fears on the other side. So when I was going through Adam’s 32 stats for the 2026 season, there was a pair of players that have legitimate upside cases in 2026 if certain “what if” scenarios play out—one in the early stages of drafts and one toward the end—but it doesn’t feel like the market is drafting for this specific upside.

Let’s not make the same mistake …

What If Joe Burrow Plays All 17 Games?

STAT: Chase Brown averaged 19.4 PPR PPG in games with Joe Burrow last year

Obviously, we can’t ignore the production (or lack thereof) that Brown posted in games where Jake Browning started (Brown averaged 8.0 PPR PPG in Weeks 3 through 5) or Joe Flacco (16.2 PPG in Weeks 6 through 12). That said, it sure feels like the market is drafting under the assumption that Burrow will miss time this season. But should we be drafting the same?

If we take the 19.4 PPR points per game that Brown averaged with Burrow and extrapolate that across the season, Brown would rank as the overall RB6 in PPG, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor and De’Von Achane. Even his overall RB8 PPR finish that bakes in the rotating door of QB play is a significantly higher finish than his current ADP.

As Pfeifer alluded to, this Bengals offense is electric. The defense is not. So long as Burrow and Brown are sharing the field, there will be fantasy points to be had. Do you really feel great about drafting players like Ashton Jeanty (ADP 12.2), Achane (13.7) or the aging Derrick Henry (21.3) ahead of Brown? I don’t. He’s a great upside bet with a late-second-round pick.

What If The Patriots Want Romeo Doubs To Be Their WR1?

STAT: Romeo Doubs saw 32% of Green Bay’s targets from inside the 10-yard line

Doubs was a staple for the Packers’ passing attack whenever it came to high-value touches. On top of the 32% share of targets inside the 10-yard line, he dominated the other pass catchers in the end zone, commanding 37% of the targets, with Christian Watson (33%) being the next-closest Packers receiver. Even in other high-leverage situations, Doubs rose to the occasion, ranking second among Packers wideouts in third/fourth-down target share (21%).

His reliability in high-leverage situations is what you pay a WR1 for, and he earned himself a nice contract with New England in a situation that looks to have far more fantasy upside than what he’s been accustomed to.

  • DBOE: Packers (-3%, 24th), Patriots (+3%, 5th)

  • i-10 DB Rate: Packers (45%, 24th), Patriots (50%, 17th)

With Stefon Diggs—and his 20% target share and 71% route rate—out of the picture, Doubs should have no trouble solidifying a high-floor role in this offense with immense upside based on where he’s made his money, especially with an ascending young QB at the helm. Getting him at WR51 feels like paying a floor price for a player with a legitimate week-to-week ceiling.

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A Bounceback Season In Minnesota?

The final piece of our early 2026 fantasy football positional sleepers series comes from Ian Hartitz, Matthew Freedman and Kendall Valenzuela, who outline their early tight end sleepers for 2026 below.

For more, see our other positional sleepers:

T.J. Hockenson | MIN

Ian: Hockenson was widely speculated to be a cap casualty this offseason, but instead, he'll be wearing purple and gold for at least one more year after the team restructured his contract.

On the one hand, Hockenson is essentially coming off career-worst counting and efficiency numbers inside a Vikings offense that will presumably continue to primarily flow through Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. He gained more than 50 yards just twice and finished as fantasy's TE27 in 2025.

On the other hand, the veteran TE is an extra year removed from 2023's devastating knee injury—a season in which he finished as fantasy's TE2 in PPR points per game despite catching passes from Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs. This came in a season in which Jefferson and Addison combined for 208 targets, albeit the former receiver did miss seven games due to injury.

So we're looking at a TE who has finished the last three seasons as fantasy's TE2 … TE18 … and TE27 … and he's now being priced as the TE23 in early drafts! Last year, Hockenson ended August as the consensus TE5 in ADP. Talk about someone being priced closer to their floor than ceiling ahead of a season in which all parties involved should see some level of improvement in the QB play department with the addition of Kyler Murray, who, you know, helped Trey McBride work as fantasy's TE2 all the way back in … 2024.

Making Sense Of The Saints Backfield

After having one of the least fantasy-relevant backfields in all of football last season, the New Orleans Saints addressed the position to kick off free agency, signing Travis Etienne (Achane?) to a four-year, $52-million deal. The move (and contract) led to basically everyone operating under one assumption:

Alvin Kamara is going to retire, right?

Following free agency, there was plenty of mystery surrounding Kamara’s position with both the Saints and the NFL. When asked about the potential of Kamara retiring, head coach Kellen Moore stated he was “not going to get into all that stuff.” And by essentially saying nothing, to many, it was solidified that Kamara’s time with the Saints was over.

Not so fast.

A Running Back Committee In New Orleans?

When speaking about Kamara at the NFL’s league meeting on Monday, Moore stated that he will be part of the running back room and that he can envision ways to utilize both running backs in the Saints' offense. That would be interesting, but also a potential headache for fantasy football purposes.

The Saints are now paying Etienne like a top-9 running back in the league, giving him $13 million per season. One would believe that would mean he’d be the starter right out of the gate. But Kamara is one of the best players in franchise history, who is also finishing a two-year, $23.5-million extension. If Moore means what he says about Kamara remaining involved, it could be in a particular role.

Once a lock for at least 4.5 yards per carry, Kamara’s efficiency has plummeted as of late. Since 2021, he has averaged just 3.8 YPC, while his ranks in yards per touch have left much to be desired:

  • 2025: 4.0 (54th)

  • 2024: 5.0 (21st)

  • 2023: 4.5 (37th)

  • 2022: 5.0 (25th)

  • 2021: 4.7 (29th)

His tackle-breaking metrics have also fallen off, ranking below league average in rush attempts per broken tackle for four consecutive seasons. Now approaching age 31, perhaps Kamara is better suited as someone who gets 10-12 touches per contest, while handling a large chunk of the passing downs. Of course, that would obviously put a dent in Etienne’s fantasy ceiling, especially following a season where he ranked third among running backs in screen routes (21), first in targets (12) and second in receptions (9).

Throughout his time as a playcaller, Moore hasn’t really used multiple running backs all that much. But to be fair, he coached prime Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas from 2019-2021, as well as MVP candidate Saquon Barkley with the Eagles in 2024. Perhaps we could see Etienne and Kamara on the field together some this season. The Saints need more help at wide receiver after Chris Olave, so giving Kamara some slot snaps could be an intriguing idea.

If this does become a committee, at least the play volume will be there. Moore’s offenses have always been fast-paced, and that didn’t change in his first year in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints ranked second in no-huddle rate (22.7%), while no team averaged more plays per minute (2.2).

Fantasy

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