✍️ Week 8 Waiver Wire Madness

The best thing about the fantasy squad being 7-0 is the chance to go 8-0…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Constant Contact:

The Vikings took down the 49ers 22-17, handing seemingly one of the NFL’s very best teams their second loss in as many weeks.

Your 235-word recap is sponsored by the Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Hub, which is objectively really freaking cool:

Jordan Addison introduced himself to the world with an explosive 7-124-2 performance highlighted by the rookie turning a would-be interception into a 60-yard TD.

And get this: The numbers would have been even bigger had:

1. Addison not been pass interfered with on an end zone shot nor been illegally contacted with on another potential chunk gain.

2. Kirk Cousins not sailed a potential three-yard TD midway through the second quarter.

Cousins was otherwise largely brilliant (378 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), and although he probably would have preferred to not have been Troy Polamalu’d by Fred Warner, give the much-maligned primetime performer credit for earning the W and racking up his fourth game with 300-plus passing yards this season – the most in the NFL.

Both George Kittle (5-78-0) and T.J. Hockenson (11-86-0) got in on the National Tight End Day fun, which simply begs the question: Why isn’t every day National Tight End Day?

Christian McCaffrey played through the pain and put fantasy teams on his back with 15-45-1 rushing and 3-51-1 receiving lines (22.6 PPR points). CMC’s first trip to the end zone made him the first player in NFL history to score a TD in 16 consecutive games (including postseason). Not bad!

Alexander Mattison split more time with Cam Akers in terms of snaps (36 vs. 25) and touches (10 vs. 12) than he has all season. Committees are no fun!

Fun times — but guess what: There are a mere 68 days until New Year’s Eve AKA Fantasy Championship Sunday. What are YOU doing to get better?

Well, let’s start by checking out the critically acclaimed and internationally renowned Utilization Report.

If there’s one thing capable of sending a fantasy football manager from six to midnight in a hurry: It’s positive changes to team’s week-to-week utilization. Lucky for you, Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland is here to break down the BIGGEST usage takeaways from the past week of action and what they mean for Week 8 and beyond.

👀 Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are now a pass-heavy offense?

We heard about Baltimore moving to a pass-friendly offense all offseason under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They backed up the talk by adding Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft and securing Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency.

But over the first month of the season, the Ravens remained reliant on their ground game despite the lack of rushing playmakers outside of Jackson. The team had a negative DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) in each game, and Jackson averaged only 199 passing yards.

Jackson erupted for 357 yards and three TDs via the air in Week 7 against the Lions, and while efficiency was a significant factor, the team registered its highest DBOE of the season at 12%. That marks the second game in the last three weeks where the Ravens qualified as a pass-heavy offense based on historical comps. Deciphering whether these data points are trends or faulty signals is always challenging, but the transformation of Baltimore’s offense might be occurring.

Implementing a new scheme takes time. The quarterbacks and receivers must all be on the same page, and the Ravens might just now be hitting their stride. Beckham, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman have missed time with injuries, and Flowers is only a rookie.

Jackson has always had QB1 overall upside thanks to his rushing prowess, but if this offense is truly moving to a pass-friendly approach, the chances just dramatically improved. Imagine a world where a QB has a 300-plus yard ceiling as a passer and a 100-plus yard ceiling as a rusher – and games where both occur. That is what we could have in Jackson.

Outlook: Jackson is a high-end QB1 who will challenge for the QB1 overall crown if the Ravens evolve into a pass-first operation.

👹 Jakobi Meyers is a target-earning MONSTER.

Meyers averages a 28% target share and ranks No. 13 in the NFL in targets despite missing a game. The free-agent addition is dominating despite QB issues and the presence of an alpha in Davante Adams.

How in the hell did this man get away from the WR-deprived Patriots? HOW?

Meyers is the WR12 on the season with three top-12 performances and he only has one finish outside the top 24.

While it might be tough for Meyers to keep up his WR1 status with Adams around, he looks like a strong WR2 option. Based on utilization data since 2011, Meyers comps averaged 15.1 points per game with a WR18 finish.

Outlook: Meyers UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.

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You know those plays that don’t show up in the box score, but you know they happened? Dropped passes? TDs nullified by a penalty? The sort of things that make fantasy managers jump out of their seats in anticipation, only to realize their player just barely missed their opportunity to rack up all kinds of points?

Well, those sort of near-miss happenings are called “Sheesh!” moments around these parts — and Ian Hartitz is here to help fantasy managers cry all over again by breaking down all of Week 7’s close calls that didn’t include a cigar.

😬 Stefon Diggs had a sheesh-ful Sunday at the office

Diggs' fantasy managers can't be too disappointed with his 6-58-1 receiving line, but the performance could have been so much bigger with just a bit better execution from both himself and Josh Allen.

First, Allen failed to give Diggs a catchable pass on what could have been a 75-yard house call. It’s not fair to expect overly pinpoint accuracy on near 60-yard bombs in a windy Foxborough environment, but that said: Sheesh.

That one was certainly more so on Allen, although Diggs himself was guilty of two additional sheeshes on the afternoon:

• Diggs received a catchable ball in the front corner of the end zone on what seemingly would have been one of those “feet in the end zone, but football out of bounds at the one-yard line” situations … if he hadn’t dropped it. Buffalo had to settle for a field goal shortly after Allen and Diggs failed to hook up on this potential seven-yard reception.

• The Bills had just 12 seconds to try and drive 75 yards for the game-winning TD, but the extremely unlikely comeback effort was essentially thwarted when Diggs dropped an absolute ROPE from Allen that would have been good for a 45-yard gain and positioned Buffalo for one last chance at a miracle around the Patriots’ 30-yard line.

All three instances were sheeshful – and together these plays along with Diggs’ other incomplete targets resulted in him racking up the single-most unrealized air yards of Week 7.

Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) in the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t catchable in the first place, so grinding the ole film helps with identifying those sorts of situations.

The following eight players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 7:

• Bills WR Stefon Diggs (187)

• Lions WR Jameson Williams (136)

• Browns WR Amari Cooper (105)

• Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (93)

• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (87)

• Saints WR Chris Olave (83 – league-high 632 on the season. Nobody else is above 500! Sheesh.)

• Cardinals WR Michael Wilson (73)

• Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley (73 – including this nearly amazing one-handed snag)

🤏 Drake London was so close, yet so far away

Getting all the way to the one-yard line and failing to score is one of the worst sheeshes that a player and/or fantasy manager can suffer.

But getting to the doorstep of scoring courtesy of a gravity-defining flip that ALSO nearly resulted in the football being fumbled through the end zone? Now that’s a serious sheesh.

Take it away, Drake London.

Here’s the full list of Week 7’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:

• Seahawks QB Geno Smith

• Vikings QB Kirk Cousins (and it was crazy)

• Saints RB Alvin Kamara (x2, same drive)

• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker

• Steelers RB Najee Harris

• Bills RB Latavius Murray

• Eagles WR A.J. Brown

• Falcons WR Drake London

Week 7 also saw Desmond Ridder fumble not once, but twice at the one-yard line, with the second being the always sheeshful "fumble through the end zone, defense gets the ball" predicament. Things you hate to see.

Also note that Rams QB Matthew Stafford completed a pass to RB Darrell Henderson down to the one-yard line, only for the popular Week 8 waiver wire pick to score a rushing TD on the next play (sorry Stafford managers). Additionally, Patriots WR Demario Douglas got down to the one-yard line on a short reception, but the team accepted a defensive pass interference penalty to presumably gain a few extra inches instead.

“Congrats” to Murray, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson, D’Andre Swift and Joe Mixon for being the only players with three such instances of this sheeshy affair so far in 2023.

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 8. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 8 rankings set here!

👏 Best team defense celebration of 2023? It’s on the shortlist. 

🤝 Stefon Diggs is a real one for this. One of us!

😮 Eagles GM Howie Roseman added an absolute stud to the secondary. He can’t keep getting away with this.

🐣 The early bird gets the worm. Week 8 games that should have your early attention.

😅 Encouraging injury news on this second-year WR. Crisis seemingly avoided.

🚑 The injury gods strike yet another fantasy RB. 1-2 weeks seems optimistic; here’s the advice you need.

🚨 A Star WR has a run-in with the law. Something to keep your eyes on.

🧑‍⚖️ The NFL wants answers regarding Bijan Robinson’s wonky Week 7 usage. Fantasy football justice must be served!

👀 Josh Allen will be without his longtime trusty TE1. Big-time opportunities upcoming for a certain rookie.

😌 Breece Hall scared the hell out of everyone on Monday. Had us in the first half, not gonna lie.

🏈 “He’s just not there yet.” Primetime football, meet Tyson Bagent.

You don’t have much spare time these days to grind the wire as much as you would prefer. We get it. But you know what you do have? Ace Fantasy Life Waiver Wire analyst Chris Allen, who has some serious Week 8 advice to get off his chest on this fine Tuesday morning.

We knew Week 7 was going to be tough. The byes already put us in a bind. And whether it was the Rams’ backfield or waiting to see if DK Metcalf would take the field, Sunday was going to be a long day. But the top scorers out of the early games made things even weirder:

• D’Onta Foreman: 33.0 FPTS (64% rostered)

• Gus Edwards: 21.4 (65.0%)

• Josh Downs: 23.5 (36%)

At least we get most of our stars back this week. Plus, we only have a few injuries to track throughout the week. Regardless, let’s dive into the usage trends after Sunday and see who’s worth picking up at the start of Week 8.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

🐏 Darrell Henderson, RB - Rams

After a week of analysts and beat reporters attempting to decipher Sean McVay’s press conferences, we got our answer.

Zach “Next Man Up” Evans didn’t play a snap (editor’s note: lol). Meanwhile, Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman hoarded all of the touches. And both are still available on the waiver wire.

But if we’re looking for the RB with repeatable opportunities conducive to fantasy production, look no further than Henderson.

• Rushing Share: 60%, (Freeman) 40%

• Touches Inside the 10-yard Line: 100%, 0%

• Route Rate: 40.6%, 25%

• Target Share: 15.4%, 0%

Henderson even got all of the two-minute work. With work in nearly every phase of the offense, it was like he never left LA. The Rams do have tough matchups before they enter their bye (at DAL, at GB), but Henderson’s volume should make him a priority add for Week 8.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 33%

📈 Josh Downs, WR - Colts

Another week. Another positive day for Josh Downs at the office.

But I know what you’re thinking. It was a free play. Kudos and light golf claps for taking advantage of a defense’s hesitation. Half of Downs’ PPR point total came from that one play.

OK, let’s play that game. You know, the game where we take away big plays to justify why we shouldn’t overreact to big performances. If Downs didn’t catch the pass and didn’t have a TD on Sunday:

• His air yard total would drop from 97 to 78, and he’d STILL lead the team in air yard share

• He’d tie Michael Pittman instead of having more targets than him

• Downs would be second in total yards on the team (66) but still have more than Davante Adams (57), Keenan Allen (55), and D.J. Moore (54)

We now have two weeks of Gardner Minshew being the primary QB and Downs retaining his WR2 role on the team. Let’s get his roster rate up as he continues to shine in a productive offense.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 38%

🐦 Emari Demercado, RB - Cardinals

OK, so maybe I was just a week behind.

Week 6 was a disaster after seeing Emari Demarcado earn just three touches after finding the box shortly after James Conner went down the week prior. Arizona split the workload across three of their RBs, with Demarcado the odd man out.

But things shifted in his favor on Sunday:

• Snap Share: 45.2% (Week 6), 77.8% (Week 7)

• Rushing Share: 20.0%, 92.9%

• Target Share: 2.6%, 15.2%

With the increased workload, Demercado ranked in the Top 12 in rushing success rate with more adjusted yards after contact per attempt than Jonathan Taylor. But it’s worth pointing out there is some systemic risk to targeting Demercado.

The Cardinals’ offense has fallen into the bottom 10 in yards per drive over their last four games, with Dobbs piloting the offense. Kyler Murray could return soon, but we’re yet to get a credible timeline. Regardless, Demercado taking over the majority of the backfield work should keep him in the low-end RB2 conversation for now.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%