Week 4's Secret Stats

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About Last Night …

For most of Thursday Night Football, the Seattle defense was suffocating the Cardinals, holding the Redbirds without a touchdown until over nine minutes had passed in the fourth quarter. That’s when Marvin Harrison Jr. high-pointed a pass from Kyler Murray in the end to cut the deficit to 20-13. Murray would throw another TD to Emari Demercado with 33 seconds remaining to tie the game. But the Seahawks marched down and set up Josh Myers for a 52-yard field goal as time expired for a 23-20 win.

Sam Darnold passed for 242 yards and a score. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 4 balls for 79 yards. Kenneth Walker IIl led the Seahawks with 110 scrimmage yards. Here’s more that happened:

• Darnold to … AJ Barner for the score. Sigh. At least the TD celebration was fun.

• This Zach Charbonnet TD. Just can’t be fun for KWIII owners to watch.

• It was looking rough there for a while for Cards fans, and Kyler owners.

• MHJ got the Cardinals back into it with this amazing TD catch. It was so pretty, it could be a painting.

• JSN showing out with his old Ohio State teammate on the other side.

• OK, kickers are people, too. For the win!

  TREY BENSON’S UTILIZATION AFTER HIS FIRST GAME AS THE AZ LEAD BACK

Editors’ Picks

OK, Week 4 is underway. The shine is off the new season. We’ve got some data to work with, as well as rankings and projections. And this great content helps, too.

Your Start/Sit Guide To Week 4

We’re close to the quarter mark of the season. This is just another reminder of how fast the NFL season flies by. Hopefully, you are enjoying your fantasy season. If there is anything that you should take away from this column, it is never to be afraid to be bold.

Keep in mind that you should not take our “Bold Start 'Em, Sit 'Em” as the place to start, but more as the place to land for a start and a place to give further examination for a sit. They are bold for a reason, but they are always backed by logic and explanation …

START: Nick Chubb, RB, HOU vs Tennessee Titans

Few players in the game today come across as more infectiously likable than the Texans Nick Chubb. Once widely recognized among the NFL’s very best pure runners, the former 35th-overall pick posted insane underlying metrics through his first +500 carries—0.03 EPA/attempt, 5.3 yards/rush, 3.8 yards after contact/carry, 12.7% explosive rush rate, 102.7 scrimmage yards/game. Even a piece of that production would feed families right now.

Fast forward to 2025, where a free agent departure plus a handful of serious injuries leaves fantasy gamers wondering just what grade of octane’s fueling Chubb’s tank. If your instinct’s to answer that query with this year’s data (-0.04 EPA/attempt, 4.1 yards/attempt, 2.1 yards after contact/carry, 5.9% explosive rush rate)—well, as my daughter would say, that ain’t it, Chief. The bear case rests right on the surface.

Turn your attention instead to Chubb’s matchups in both directions. The Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars represent a good chunk of the toughest run-stopping units in the league, combining to allow a measly 3.8 yards per rush and just a single +20-yard carry in 36 quarters of play. I’d argue that trio of defenses might make a lot of RBs look old.

Now it’s stoppable force meets movable object, as Houston sets up to face a Titans squad in full tailspin—only the Ravens and Bengals allowed more fantasy points to RBs in 2025. As a touchdown underdog, Tennessee should do its part in keeping the game script positive long enough for the Texans’ backfield to finally produce. I hope.

Queue up Nick Chubb’s first RB1 finish of 2025 with a similar deep-league boost for Woody Marks into flexworthy territory on Sunday.

Week 4 Smash of the Week: Ashton Jeanty

GEOFF ULRICH: I won’t pretend that I was a fan of the Raiders taking Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 overall in the draft. They needed help elsewhere, but especially on the O-Line, where they’ve been a mess to date and rank dead last (32/32) in Run Block Win Rate (via ESPN Analytics).

The poor O-Line has, unshockingly, hurt Jeanty, who has averaged just 3.1 YPC to date and has yet to break a run of longer than 18 yards. For fantasy purposes, he’s now down to RB33 in terms of year-to-date scoring. Gross.

Still, if you’re thinking of benching him for his poor start, I’d recommend some patience because the matchup in Week 4 vs. the Bears is as pristine as it gets for a bell cow back.

Through three weeks, Chicago ranks the following defensively against the rush (via RBSDM.com):

• EPA per play vs the rush: 23rd/32 (-0.028)

• Success Rate vs the rush: 28th/32 (46.2%)

• FP allowed to opposing RBs: 29th/32 (26.5 FP per game)

Even last week, in a poor game script, the Cowboys RB tandem of Javonte Williams and a semi-washed Miles Sanders went for 117 yards on the ground (6.15 YPC) vs the Bears.

If you took Jeanty early and have been struggling, you owe it to yourself to get him in the lineup this week. If he goes off, you can still trade him next week, with his value higher, and if he somehow busts in this A+ spot, well … at least you can go to sleep Sunday night knowing you tried.

Prediction: Jeanty goes for 100+ yards rushing, averages over 5.0 YPC and scores a TD (and you still sleep well). — Ulrich

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

📺 Upgrade Cam Skattebo, downgrade Chase Brown. All the Week 4 rankings you need.

🤔 A vomit stack that won’t leave you so queasy? It’s possible. Plus more DFS plays you want to consider.

😅 Are you still alive in your Survivor pool? Here are some recommendations.

😬 Are you 0-3 to start the season? Hopefully you’ve learned more than this guy.

💪 It didn’t take long for this backfield takeover.

🙌 This RB may be a prime buy-low candidate. League-winner incoming!

🚑 An update on Brandon Aiyuk’s return from ACL surgery.