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I don’t know why, but Friday nights always feel like the calm before the storm during football season. It’s weird how the hours start moving faster approaching lineup lock, always chipping away at any chance to tinker with our fantasy fates.
So little time, so much to do …
Two weeks into a marathon season, team trajectories remain up in the air with the jury still out. But it’s our job not to overreact while constantly making inferences in a game that revolves around incomplete information.
So, here I am. Cross-eyed from hours in the lab with the old digital crystal ball, back from the future with my favorite of Monday’s headlines. 1.21 gigawatts!
Buy The Rip On Green Bay’s Cheese
The Pack welcomed game-wrecker Micah Parsons to town with resounding flair, and the positive effects couldn’t be more in your face. GB’s defense looks like one of the best units in the game today, ranking top three in yards per game (238), EPA/play (+0.10), yards per play (3.7), success rate (59%), average drive distance (23.7), and explosive play rate allowed (4.6%). Look out below.
Cleveland is an 8.5-point underdog after getting beaten by four scores, and I’d honestly be surprised if they find the end zone once on Sunday. As fun as they’ve been in fantasy circles, avoid starting your Browns from Jerry Jeudy to Harold Fannin Jr. and all the way down—unless you can subsist on PPR garbage time.
With that, desperate deep-league and SuperFlex players may want to scoop up QB Dillon Gabriel before the swap from Joe Flacco happens.
Mahomes Big Apple Double Bottom
The highest-scoring roster spot in this tilt could very well be the D/ST. How exciting. Historically, teams starting 0-2 stand just an 11.5% chance to make the dance, but come on … if anyone’s hitting on 9-1 odds, it’s Patrick Mahomes.
Plus, the Chiefs played well given the injuries, taking two one-score losses by nine points combined. The step down from facing the Chargers and Eagles to the (gags) Giants, could be a swift reminder of the KC offense we’ve known and loved.
Our data sample is too small for definitive claims, but Big Blue is objectively on the shortest list for worst defenses in 2025. If I listed the entire catalog of stats NYG ranks 30th or worse in, no doubt it’d earn an editor’s note for too many stats. For real, it’s in the dozens.
Needless to say, any defense allowing 450+ yards a game and just under 40 yards a drive makes the perfect short-term fantasy target. I’ll be the first to admit how jagged the pill’s been to swallow—but you oughta know how overly bullish I’m getting on Isiah Pacheco, and even Tyquan Thornton to post slate-breaking games.
Calling Out Tops On A Hollywood Story
Just three short weeks ago, we were all Googling new-age therapeutic healing trailers that looked like Star Wars space transports—and what chances it gave Matthew Stafford to post a healthy season. Could you blame me for the skepticism?
Fast forward a fortnight, and the Rams sit undefeated with the NFL’s second-highest yards gained per play (6.3). Things seem sunny in California, but Rams backers should pump the brakes—a trip to Broad Street to face the Eagles will present a significantly tougher challenge than the Texans and Titans. Shocker.
I’m already benching my Eagles pass catchers after Philly reverted its offensive strategy back to the time of leather helmets. This week, add your Rams to that same bench where you can.
Every time the Birds line up for 3rd and 1, you can essentially erase minutes off the clock to execute the Tush Push. Outside of a naked Jalen Hurts, look for alternate paths to victory this weekend.
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Fantasy
About Last Night …
It was not the runaway that many expected. The high-flying Bills hosting the floundering Dolphins. But that is why they play the game. With Miami battling to a 14-14 tie at halftime, the two teams traded punches until the Dolphins were driving late for a potential game-tying touchdown when a Tua Tagovailoa pass was picked off. Josh Allen was his usual brilliant self (213 pass yards, 3 TDs and 25 rushing yards), though he spread things around. Here are some highlights:
💪 Tua got into the groove on a pair of TD passes, first to Jaylen Waddle then a perfect throw to Tyreek Hill.
👨🏼🍳 James Cook is, well, cooking up another big season.
🏎️ Khalil Shakir got the wheels going on this TD catch and run.
☝️Ollie Gordon for his first career TD. De’Von Achane’s “quiet” night still saw him put up 91 scrimmage yards.
Fantasy
Editors’ Picks
OK, Week 3 is underway. The shine is off the new season. We’ve got some data to work with, as well as rankings and projections. And this great content helps, too.
 | The talk all week has been centered around the Bengals. Are the star WRs doomed, or is this a manageable situation? Sam Wallace breaks it down. |
 | Is Kyren Williams getting some company in the Rams backfield? Ian Hartitz identifies six RBs you’ll want to stash on your bench, just in case. |
 | The dreaded Thursday injury reared its ugly head for one of the hottest players for fantasy in the early going. Adam Ronis and Jorge Martin go over the injuries having the greatest impact on Week 3. |
Fantasy
Your Start/Sit Guide To Week 3
Week 3 is underway, which means we've got our Start 'Em, Sit 'Em column ready to go ... with one slight adjustment.
For Week 3, Gene and John are thinking bigger ... thinking bolder. These are bold starts and sits for Week 3. You have to risk it for the biscuit, and the same is true in fantasy football ...
START: Troy Franklin, WR, at Los Angeles Chargers
Despite putting up a solid WR7 finish (8-89-1) at Indy, Denver’s second-year wideout Troy Franklin is a popular point of start/sit contention this weekend in a tough matchup at LAC. No one’s clamoring to attach themselves to Denver right now, but it’s too soon to surrender on solid priors.
Sure, most of the normies will avoid targeting Los Angeles’ defense, currently top-5 in terms of scoring, EPA and success rate. The thing is, Jim Harbaugh’s newfound love for throwing the ball creates an interesting fantasy dynamic.
Aside from knowing the Bolts’ offense will push you for four quarters, LAC’s defensive style could spell a huge volume game for Franklin. The Chargers deploy the league’s highest rate of two-high shell coverage (39%), combined with a bottom-5 blitz rate (8.7%)—explaining just how to allow the ninth-most receptions per game (24), but the third-fewest points (15).
Preventive schematics like that often open up space underneath behind the line, precisely what we’ve seen thus far. Opposing slot WRs average 8.5 receptions for 105 yards against LA in 2025. It’s only been two games, Denver’s not going quietly into the night; expect them to come out swinging with Franklin at the center of the action.
SIT: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Won’t have convictions questioned on this sit recommendation, putting a weekly fade on Jacory Croskey-Merritt certainly isn’t making me any friends. Everyone’s favorite seventh-round cult hero rookie flew up late draft boards when the Commanders moved on from Brian Robinson Jr.—but has it been worth it?
A touchdown saved Bill’s excellent adventure in Week 1, only to get flattened as RB64 versus Green Bay’s vaunted defense last Thursday. Now veteran Austin Ekeler’s season is over and once again, Bill appears to hold the pole position going forward. Why am I not sold?
Croskey-Merritt still hasn’t reeled in a single reception this season, and my guess is that Jeremy McNichols secures the pass-game work versus Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders run defense played great two weeks in a row to open the season. Plus, if Dan Quinn’s quote that Chris Rodriguez will “be back in the fold” in Week 3 holds true, it’s just another mouth to feed for Washington’s baseline work. Thanks, but no thanks.
Fantasy
The George Pickens Breakout Week Is Here
Fridays at Fantasy Life mean one thing—Smashes and Stashes with Mark Drumheller are here and this week, he’s targeting a defense ripe for the picking if the first two weeks hold true …
I cautioned everyone to pump the brakes on George Pickens throughout the preseason. The talent is there, the fit with the Cowboys is perfect, but there are always a few games where he disappears. He’s a volatile player who thrives when everything is clicking.
Throughout the first two games, you can see his performance mirror the team's offensive success.
Week 1: 24-20 loss vs. Philadelphia
George Pickens: 3-30-0 | 4.5 FP
Team passing yards: 188
Dropback Success Rate: (28th)
Week 2: 40-37 win vs. NY Giants
George Pickens: 5-68-1 | 15.3 FP
Team passing yards: 361
Dropback Success Rate: 38.5% (t-10th)
Pickens is arguably the most valuable WR2 in all of football, but you still have to pick your spots. And if anyone has watched the Bears this season—this is the spot.
The Bears are still licking their wounds from a 52-21 loss to the Lions where they surrendered five passing touchdowns. More importantly, Jameson Williams (WR2) burned the Bears secondary for 108 yards and a touchdown, good for 17.8 FP. So, a high-end WR2 ate against this defense. Perfect, sign me up for a repeat.
This is an ideal smash spot for Pickens. The vibes should be high as Dak Prescott will face little resistance for the second straight week. Chicago’s defense ranks 29th in red zone defense, 30th in dropback EPA and 31st in dropback success rate. There are only 32 teams, folks. Let’s push Pickens into every possible lineup.
DFS
Underdog and DraftKings DFS Plays For Week 3
Is Jordan Mason becoming too big of a chalk play after Aaron Jones landed on IR? It’s getting increasingly possible as the week winds down, and we head closer to Sunday’s clash with the Bengals.
Pete Overzet offers up his thoughts on how people might be overestimating how dominant Mason could actually be. Our DFS guru delves into the value plays and on both Underdog and DraftKings heading into Week 3.⬇️
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
📈📉 Upgrades and downgrades at every position for Week 3.
🎸 Let’s jam with Pete on the Week 3 DFS slate.
😎 Come in for cooterdoodle’s Tee Higgins haiku, then stay for the rest.
🐬 Pulse check on a WR room—how’re we feeling after three games?
⬆️⬇️ Jameson Williams is rising, as are others. Some, not so much.
🥩 Just say no to bad beats. Same for bad meats.
🧢 A legendary lefty is calling it a career.
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