👀 Week 18 Motivation Tiers

Those college football games were pretty, pretty, pretty cool…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Your fantasy football league is over by now (unless you are wild enough to have a Week 18 championship).

No judgment if so – the Fantasy Life crew remains committed to providing you with the rankings and content needed to conquer fantasy endeavors of all shapes and sizes!

Of course, the monster that is Week 18 presents a unique problem relative to the other 17 weeks of regular season football degeneracy: There are varying levels of motivation around the league due to many teams already having their postseason fate decided, for better or worse.

Lucky for us, The New York Times has a cool interactive playoff picture feature that can help us access every team’s motivation level heading into Week 18.

Scholar Anthony Amico also has an awesome column on the subject over at Establish The Run. Some coaches have additionally helped our cause by already speaking out about their team’s playing time intentions.

Let’s start with the teams with nothing to play for (in a good way).

😎 Clinched a first-round bye

• Ravens (13-3)

• 49ers (12-4)

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh didn’t give much away when discussing the team’s focus this week, simply noting they are focused on the Steelers and also planning for the next step in the playoffs. He did note that the team is “not going to keep it (personnel) a secret” and will “let you know what we’re gonna do once we start practicing.”

History (2019) says Lamar Jackson and a handful of other key starters will rest. Expect 2022 Pro Bowl QB Tyler Huntley to lead an offense filled with plenty of backup talent against a Steelers team fighting for their playoff life.

And then there’s 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, who confirmed Christian McCaffrey (calf) won’t be suiting up in the regular season finale and also noted, “We’ll definitely try to rest some guys, but you can’t rest everybody.”

It’d make sense if the team’s key skill-position weapons see little to no meaningful usage ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Rams.

There are a few more squads that have essentially locked things up at this point…

😃 The division is clinched and life is good

• Lions (11-5)

• Chiefs (10-6)

Kansas City has the tiebreaker over both the Dolphins and Bills, so they are locked into the No. 3 seed. Andy Reid proved willing to rest his starting QB and Travis Kelce with similar certainties already secured in 2017 and 2020.

Technically the Lions could snag the No. 2 seed with a W and losses from both the Cowboys (-13 vs. WSH) and the Eagles (-5 vs. NYG). But that’s really beside the point. Do you really think noted kneecap biter Dan Campbell would ever have any intention other than taking this game as seriously as possible?

Maybe things change, but for now, expect Jared Goff and the starters to have their usual full-time roles while their Week 18 matchup against the Vikings is competitive.

👍 Playoff spot is all good with minimal upside to play for

• Browns (11-5)

• Rams (9-7)

Both teams happen to exist in the same division as their conference’s No. 1 seed, but a playoff spot is at least already secured.

The Browns are locked in as the No. 5 seed and expected to rest starters, while the Rams can drop to the No. 7 seed if they lose AND the Packers win (playing at the same time).

Head coach Sean McVay has been open in the past about resting starters; tentatively expect the Rams’ usual key parties to play their typical roles but stay tuned to late-week updates.

🥊 Still fighting for either a divisional title or a playoff spot

The following teams are still actively fighting for their divisional crown:

• Dolphins (11-5)

• Cowboys (11-5)

• Eagles (11-5)

• Colts (9-7)

• Texans (9-7)

• Buccaneers (8-8)

• Saints (8-8)

• Jaguars (9-7)

• Falcons (7-9)

And then there are a handful of additional squads looking to secure a victory to help out their varying – but mathematically possible – playoff and/or divisional odds:

• Bills (10-6)

• Steelers (9-7)

• Packers (8-8)

• Seahawks (8-8)

• Vikings (7-9)

Expect the same sort of utilization that has been occurring lately to keep on keeping on with all of these squads still very much having plenty to play for in Week 18.

☠️ Eliminated from playoff contention

• Bengals (8-8)

• Broncos (8-8)

• Bears (7-9)

• Raiders (7-9)

• Jets (6-10)

• Chargers (5-11)

• Giants (5-11)

• Titans (5-11)

• Cardinals (4-12)

• Commanders (4-12)

• Patriots (4-12)

• Panthers (2-14)

It’s not a given that these teams will choose to ride with the status quo at various positions.

Be especially cautious when expecting full workloads from injured parties, but many of these teams (Jets, Titans, Chargers, Patriots, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers) have already been eliminated for weeks and haven’t exactly stopped playing their starters in their usual capacities.

Note the Bears, Broncos, Bengals and Raiders have just recently been eliminated and hold just a bit more uncertainty surrounding their starter’s usage. 

We’ll know more as the week goes on and coaching staffs reveal their plans.

For now, let’s control the controllables by embracing our tried and trusted weekly fantasy routine. As a wise man once said: It’s a great day to be great.

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Fantasy football championships were sadly lost this past weekend. Four months of blood, sweat and tears were put into these teams — it’s more than understandable to feel some heartache over the unfortunate final result.

One problem: Fantasy Life Resident of Sheesh Ian Hartitz has made it his life’s mission to break down all of the week’s near-miss moments featuring beyond-the-box-score plays that were oh so close to producing SERIOUS fantasy production … only to not. You know, the sort of moments that simply make you say, “Sheesh!”

Presenting: The Week 17 Sheesh Report.

🐬 It would have been a lot cooler if Tyreek Hill caught this

There were roughly seven clear-cut dropped TDs in Week 17, which sucks because, you know, football is pretty cool when players make great catches and score points:

• 49ers FB Kyle Juszcyk (potential 34-yard TD)

• Bears WR Tyler Scott (his 33-yard score was brutal enough, but Scott also failed to get two feet down earlier on what probably should have been an additional four-yard TD)

• Dolphins WR Chase Claypool (30 – it was in double-coverage to be fair, but then again the football was in Claypool’s lap)

• Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (24 – the all-22 tape revealed that it was very unlikely anyone would have cut him off before the end zone)

• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (8 – seemingly because the sun got in his eyes, but still: SHEESH)

• Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (5 – although there’s a chance he wouldn’t have gotten both feet down anyway)

Also note that the likes of Titans WR Treylon Burks (potential 50-yard gain), Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (40), Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (35) and Chargers WR Keelan Doss (35) dropped what would have been big gains, albeit weren’t likely to go for scores.

The same is true for Ravens WR Rashod Bateman, who had a potential 35-yard gain down the sideline be ruled incomplete – but honestly, a better throw might have led to a 75-yard house call after Bateman utilized a SICK double-move to spring wide-open downfield on the Ravens’ first offensive play of the game.

🙃 Najee Harris: C’mon, man

Getting all the way to the one-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling – particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.

Here’s the full list of Week 17’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:

• Bills RB James Cook

• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

• Raiders RB Zamir White

• 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

• Dolphins RB Jeff Wilson

• Bengals RB Joe Mixon

• Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr.

• Broncos WR Brandon Johnson

• Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell (did throw for a TD on the same drive)

Also note that Steelers RB Najee Harris committed the cardinal fantasy sin by pulling a Brian Westbrook/Todd Gurley and sliding down at the five-yard line upon picking up the game-sealing first down to set his real-life team up for the win … at the expense of his loyal fantasy football managers. Credit to Harris for posting an awesome 27-122-2 rushing line anyway, but still: Sheesh.

Another example of nobody being above the law of sheesh goes to Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, who looked to be on his way to scoring his second TD of the evening before fumbling the football through the end zone.

Possession: Lions — and social media engaged in another heated debate on whether or not this is the worst rule in sport (I’m fine with it – hold onto the damn ball near the most important area of the field if you’re so worried about it).

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 18. For you sickos who still have a Fantasy Football Championship on the line this week, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 18 rankings set here!

💰 Did you win your fantasy league? Congrats! Consider donating to your MVP’s favorite charity!

🎧 If only there was an entertaining Week 17 recap podcast you could check out. Ian and Dwain to the rescue!

🏆 The moment you’ve all been waiting for. The top 10 memes of the 2023 season.

🎉 2024 is a brand new year. Focus on the positives.

🤴 “The Prince Who Was Promised” is hopeful to return this week. C’mon, Injury Gods.

😬 Mild calf strain for the arguable fantasy MVP. Cya in the playoffs.

✍️ Tired: the Fantasy season is officially over. Wired: Pivoting to early Week 18 lines to bet.

🐻 The Bears have officially locked up the 2024 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick (via the Panthers). But what do Bears fans want?

🐏 What fantasy players provided the most value relative to ADP? The Rams offense was a helluva drug.

📊 ICYMI: yes, we have Week 18 rankings. And yes, the first run is live.

⭐️ Big-time players make big-time players in big-time games. The fantasy playoff’s best performers.

If you think Professor Dwain McFarland is resting now that most fantasy football leagues are decided then you are sorely mistaken, my friend.

Why? Well, whether it’s Week 18 DFS, playoff best ball, or simply placing a good old-fashioned sports bet: Player utilization remains the skeleton key to making any well-informed decision in fantasy or gambling land.

Presenting: The Week 18 Utilization Report.

🌻 Zay Flowers is closing his rookie campaign with a bang

Since the Ravens lost Mark Andrews in Week 11, Flowers has averaged 17 fantasy points. The Round 1 NFL Draft pick has led Baltimores' receiving corps with a 22% target share, and in Week 17, he registered his fourth finish inside the top 13 WRs in that five-game span.

Flowers leads the team in endzone targets and third- and fourth-down targets, and a juicy 42% of his looks come against play action. Over the last five seasons, a play-action target has been worth 20% more than a non-play-action target when it comes to fantasy points.

Flowers could have had an even bigger day against the Dolphins but was battling a calf injury that kept him out of practice most of last week. The Ravens didn’t give Flowers his usual workload, limiting his route participation to 54%.

The Ravens have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, securing home-field advantage and a first-round bye. We might not see Flowers in Week 18 if the Ravens want to get him healthy, but the rookie WR could be a significant factor in playoff best ball tournaments if Baltimore makes a Super Bowl run.

Outlook: Flowers UPGRADES to low-end WR2 status.

🧀 Aaron Jones is healthy but stuck in a three-way committee

Jones has averaged 14.5 fantasy points over the last two games, averaging 20.5 attempts and two targets. Jones could have had an even bigger day in Week 17, but his services weren’t needed in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand for the Packers.

AJ Dillon also battled a wrist injury, making it hard to decipher the potential workload split in Green Bay moving forward. Still, Jones certainly deserves the edge after the last two games.

Dillon remains a nuisance inside the five-yard line, and Patrick Taylor is stealing the passing down work that would send Jones’ fantasy stock to the moon.

The Packers will punch their ticket to the playoffs with a victory over the Bears in Week 18, and Jones looks like a mid-range RB2 heading into that matchup. However, we know the ceiling is much higher based on history – Jones is capable of putting up RB1 performances as the lead option in a time-share situation.

Outlook: Jones is a mid-range RB2 who offers high-end RB1 upside if more of the passing game work comes his way.