👀 Week 16 Waivers and HUGE Utilization Takeaways

Rule No. 76 of fantasy fantasy: No excuses, play like a champion…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Hugo Boss:

Monday Night Football didn’t feature a ton of fireworks early, but at the end of the day, those who benefited from the outcome in terms of real-life fandom, fantasy success and/or betting-related shenanigans had a good time – and isn’t that ultimately what it’s all about?

Initially, it looked like the lasting storyline here would be of the Jalen Hurts flu game variety after his two tush push TDs helped build a 17-13 lead late in the 4th quarter.

Enter Drew Lock.

Despite uncertainty surrounding whether or not Geno Smith (groin) would start seemingly up until game-time, Lock shined late by making some fearless downfield throws during an incredible 10-play, 92-yard drive that culminated with an absolute dot to rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to take the lead with just 28 seconds remaining.

Lock’s emotional postgame interview was an awesome encore – this was truly an incredible moment for the much-criticized ex-Broncos signal-caller. Hats off to the 27-year-old QB for winning his first start since December 13, 2020.

Those late-game heroics helped salvage previously underwhelming fantasy performances from both D.K. Metcalf (5-78-0) and JSN (4-48-1), but otherwise, Kenneth Walker (19-86-1 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving) was the only real fantasy star.

Credit to the stud RB for making more than a few runs that undoubtedly must have had Chris Berman squealing, particularly this exhilarating 23-yard TD jaunt that featured a b-e-a-utiful lead block from his QB.

The lack of high-end production from Eagles stars A.J. Brown (5-56-0), DeVonta Smith (5-50-0), Dallas Goedert (4-30-0) and D'Andre Swift (18-74-0 rushing) certainly wasn’t ideal for fantasy managers hoping for big-time performances; just realize all will remain recommended starts with MASSIVE bounce-back upside in Week 16’s matchup against the Giants’ 24th-ranked scoring defense.

Fantasy Life Resident Sheesh Expert Ian Hartitz has made it his weekly mission to provide the sort of beyond-the-box-score juice that will not only help inform you of integral details you may have missed but also provide PT-Fantasy-SD — because why not?

Presenting: The Week 15 Sheesh Report.

🐻 “Sheesh.” - Justin Fields

The government would like you to believe that Fields threw for just 166 yards with one TD and two INTs during the Bears' Week 15 loss to the Browns.

And guess what? That technically happened – but it serves as a good example of why it’s important to watch the ole’ film before overly criticizing someone.

Overall:

• Fields hit TE Robert Tonyan for what should have been at least a 50-plus yard chunk gain – if not a 73-yard house call.

• His first interception was simply a Hail Mary at the end of the first half.

• Fields’ second interception was a Hail Mary at the end of the second half that was in Darnell Mooney’s lap … before he somehow kicked the ball to the defense.

We’re talking about a swing of 13.72 fantasy points if those former and latter bullets were simply caught. I’d bargain that difference ended the fantasy season for hundreds if not thousands of squads around the globe. Sheesh.

😬 DeAndre Hopkins should have had a MUCH bigger afternoon at the office

Titans QB Will Levis BADLY under threw a WIDE-open DeAndre Hopkins on what should have been a relatively easy 82-yard score.

Overall, there were roughly 12 instances where I subjectively believe pass-catchers didn’t receive catchable passes on what would have otherwise been TDs, although differing levels of openness, difficulty of throw and pressure hardly made all of these near misses of the layup variety.

As Benjamin Franklin once said: Not all sheesh is created equal.

• Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (potential 82-yard TD)

• Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks (71 – maybe just a big gain, but he was open)

• Bengals WR Charlie Jones (56 – this miss was BRUTAL)

• Vikings WR K.J. Osborn (27 – and the pass was thrown by Justin Jefferson lol)

• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (15 – at 53 seconds in this video)

• Colts WR Alec Pierce (14)

• Broncos TE Adam Trautman (11)

• Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (7)

• Cardinals WR Rondale Moore (5)

• Bears WR Darnell Mooney (5)

• Packers WR Jayden Reed (4)

• Broncos WR Brandon Johnson (3)

Also, note that 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk had a pair of 40-plus yard gains that were just missed by Brock Purdy. Probably not TDs due to a safety coming over the top late, but Purdy’s first underthrow and second overthrow demonstrate the reality that Aiyuk’s 3-37-0 receiving line was hardly all his fault.

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“Fantasy football usage moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” - Dwain McFarland

👨‍🍳 James Cook moves into RB1 territory with Joe Brady calling plays

In Week 15, Cook exploded for a season-high 36.1 points. Since Brady took over the play-calling duties in Week 11, Cook has been dominant, averaging 24.1 points per contest. While the Bills' run-heavy game plan against a Cowboys defense that wants to rush the passer was a significant factor, Cook registered his best utilization marks since Brady took over.

In seven drives with the starters, Cook had even better numbers than the game log shows. He accounted for 62% of snaps and 60% of the attempts in seven drives with the starters. 

While it is hard to know if these numbers will hold moving forward – one thing is for sure: Cook is now a primary option in the passing attack with a 31% TPRR over the last four games. And we aren’t just talking dump-off passes. Cook averages a 3.4 aDOT with Brady as a mismatch weapon on downfield targets.

Latavius Murray and Josh Allen continue to poach carries inside the five-yard line, which holds Cook back from elite utilization. Still, the former Round 2 pick averages 17 attempts and 4.8 targets per game under Brady and has a STRONG comp group, even after accounting for his limited role around the goal line.

Cook’s closest comps based on his role since Brady took over:

• 2011 Fred Jackson (21.3 PPG)

• 2012 Ryan Mathews (17.2)

• 2013 Reggie Bush (17.7)

• 2014 Andre Ellington (15.2)

Based on the last 12 years of data, the average finish is RB11, with 16.6 points per game.

Outlook: Cook UPGRADES to low-end RB1 territory and offers high-end RB1 upside.

🔓 Joe Flacco has UNLOCKED David Njoku

Njoku has been a solid fantasy producer since Week 7, finishing as a top-12 option every week except Week 13. His 22% target share ranks fourth in the NFL, but the Browns' run-first mentality and QB accuracy woes have kept the talented TE from accessing ceiling games. 

However, since Joe Flacco took over the reins, the Browns have morphed into a pass-first operation with a +7% DBOE.

Cleveland ranks No. 1 in time of possession (55%) for the season, and now those plays are pass plays more often than not, with a dropback rate of 68% with Flacco under center. While the 38-year-old QB hasn’t been hyper-accurate, his 58% completion rate is a sizable upgrade over P.J. Walker (49%) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (54%).

In three games with Flacco, Njoku averages 19.1 fantasy points per game with 9.3 targets per contest.

Njoku has always had a solid underlying talent profile, but TE rotations, QB play, and scheme have derailed his path to high-end finishes – all things that have amazingly come into perfect alignment since the Flacco takeover.

Outlook: Njoku UPGRADES to mid-range TE1 status and could challenge for a top-three finish over the final weeks.

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 16. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 16 rankings set here!

🐅 One of the game’s very best WRs is “likely to miss some time.” Why fantasy Gods, WHY?

📺 Win now or build for the future? How to DOMINATE dynasty fantasy football.

🤔 Tom Brady blames … the QB for this hit? Hear him out.

🚀 Expecting a bounce-back in Houston? A Texans WR checks in as the Add of the Week.

🔔 It makes sense when great performances lead to larger workloads. Featured role incoming.

📊 Week 16 early rankings are live. The preseason WR1 reenters the top 10.

📈 Love it when NFL players have fun with fantasy. ONE OF US.

😭 Expected bad news confirmed in Baltimore. Take my eyes but not his ACL.

😀 One of fantasy’s top RBs will be “good to go” this week barring a setback. Hurt not injured.

🦌 The Steelers make a change under center. Why is it between McLovin’ and Muhammad?

⚡ Fantasy Life analyst Golden Tate raised the 12 Flag last night! Electric moment.

🔥 Which teams were most willing to throw the football in Week 15? Let Flacco cook.

Do you realize fantasy championship Sunday is just 12 days away? DO YOU???

Well, it is — and there’s no better time than the present to get the low down on ALL of the Week 13 waiver wire goodness from Fantasy Life resident waiver wire/weather prodigy Chris Allen.

Paraphrasing Bill Belichick here: We’re (hopefully) on to Week 16.

Last week was the first round of the playoffs for most, and it felt like it. The chaos started on Thursday with the Raiders defusing the Chargers, and the excitement picked up momentum over the weekend. Multiple games went down to the wire. The playoff picture got a little clearer. However, we still have to keep our rosters ready for anything. 

But let’s not go overboard.

We need impact players to help us get through the championship run – a.k.a. the guys you’d actually consider starting. So, I kept it tight this week to find the waiver pickups you’ll need to take down your league.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

🍗 Leftovers

• Chase Brown: Team rushing share increased from 25% in Week 14 to 35% on Saturday along with another three targets, but it was all Joe Mixon in the red zone and Brown ultimately played fewer snaps

• Zamir White: Took on 65.4% of the team’s rushing attempts with a 59.5% route rate. For reference, Josh Jacobs had a 79.7% rush attempt mark with a 52.4% route rate

• Jerick McKinnon: 36.1% snap rate and fell behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire in red-zone touches and overall carries

📈 Trey Sermon, Colts

Zack Moss missed the second half with an injury. His status for Week 16 is unclear, but the initial analysis is he’ll be available.

However, if Moss’s ailment lingers and Jonathan Taylor (thumb) remains sidelined, Trey Sermon will be the guy you need.

Sermon was the only other Colts’ RB with double-digit touches after Moss exited the game. Sermon did have a 57.1% route rate but failed to earn a target. All of the RB looks from Gardner Minshew went to Tyler Goodson. But with Sermon holding a 3-to-1 lead on the red-zone touches, look to the former 49er for volume should the injury Gods decide to be dicks with his teammates.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 5%

🧀 Dontayvion Wicks, Packers

We’re now two games without Christian Watson, and Dontavion Wicks has seen his target share increase from 15.8% to 19.4%. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs has become less of a factor, as he only earned three targets this past Sunday. 

Wicks is the only Packers’ WR (other than Jayden Reed) with a TPRR rate over 20%. His seven targets on third/fourth down are the second-most on the team. And all of the rookie’s receptions have gone for first downs. 

Wicks has played 68.2% of his snaps from the slot. At the same time, Love’s passing aDOT has continually declined from 10.8 in Week 12 to 6.4 on Sunday. If anyone stands to benefit from a more conservative offense, it’ll be the short-area route runners with Wicks working behind Reed.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%