❓ Week 10's Biggest Question Mark
How to approach the Bengals...
I’ll never forget where I was when I saw the video of Travis Kelce kissing Taylor Swift…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
Ja’Marr Chase is 50-50 today
Morning Download: An entire offense gets an upgrade.
Bets from the Group Chat: All in on the Browns.
The WR set to explode
Hidden Gems: Targeting a sneaky shootout.
It’s 11/12. Take it away Peter Overzet…
What is it about these star WRs this year?
Last week we were trying to figure out whether we could trust Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams with back-up QBs and this week we are trying to figure out what to do with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
Fortunately, we did get definitive news on Jefferson’s status this week–more on him in the Morning Download below–but things are more ambiguous with Chase.
Here’s everything we know right now about the Bengals star pass catcher and how you should handle the Bengals in fantasy today…
🤔 Can you trust Ja’Marr Chase today??
Chase has been dealing with a back injury all week that he suffered during the team’s win over the Bills last weekend.
He took a hard fall on his back after going up for a pass in the second half, which complicated his practice status this week:
Unfortunately, it sounds like we won’t know anything definitive until inactives are released at 11:30am ET:
#Bengals are hopeful that Ja’Marr Chase (questionable, back) will play Sunday vs. Houston but won’t know definitively until he does a workout in the AM, per sources.
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN)
Nov 12, 2023
All in all, I’m optimistic that Chase plays today and delivers a high-end fantasy day.
Even if he’s at 85-90% like some Twitter docs suggest, it’s impossible not to start Chase in this shootout spot vs. the Texans. Not only does this game have a 47-point total, but the Bengals have recently become the pass-heaviest team in the league.
The other thing going for Chase is that the team ruled out Tee Higgins yesterday and elevated two WRs from the practice squad for depth insurance.
Chase’s target shares have been absurd when Higgins is out of the lineup over the past two years:
I know it always feels shaky to start a player who seems legitimately questionable, but the reward here far outweighs the risk.
Even with Matthew Freedman conservatively ranking Chase as his WR8, he still checks in as our consensus WR3 on the week.
As weird as it sounds, fire up Chase with confidence if he is active. You can even toss Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin into lineups in a pinch.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 10
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Cardinals offense, Justin Jefferson, and Keaton Mitchell.
For everything else you need for Week 10—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
📈 Arizona's Offense is Up…
The Cardinals’ offense was nothing short of a disaster last week. Clayton Tune was clearly not ready for the NFL level, and they managed just 58 yards of total offense vs. the Browns.
Fortunately, things should look significantly better in Week 10.
Not only will Kyler Murray make his season debut, but James Conner has been activated from the IR. Even Michael Wilson is expected to play through his questionable designation, making them as close to full strength as they’ve been all season.
It’s not the best spot for Conner to make his return — the Falcons are first in the league in rushing EPA against – but it’s a phenomenal spot for Murray. They’re merely 25th against the pass, so Murray should be able to start hot.
The big question is just how limited Murray will be in his first game back. Our rankers have Murray as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback for Week 10, so he’s a viable starter in all but the shallowest one-QB leagues.
The over in this matchup has also been a preferred target for the sharps, so this game has some sneaky fantasy upside all around.
📉 Justin Jefferson is Down…
The Vikings opened Jefferson’s 21-day practice window, and while he was always a longshot to return in Week 10, his questionable designation on Friday provided a bit of optimism. Unfortunately, he’ll miss at least one more week.
With Cam Akers also landing on IR, the Vikings’ offense is going to be as thin on skill-position players as it has all season.
Josh Dobbs was a great story last week, and Jordan Addison has provided some huge value with Jefferson out of late. That said, I’m not particularly interested in anyone on this squad vs. the Saints. T.J. Hockenson will play today, but reports indicate that he won't play as many snaps as normal.
New Orleans has had a fantastic defense all season, so it’s tough to get behind anyone in this matchup. You probably don’t have the luxury of benching guys like Addison and Alexander Mattison, but if you do, it’s something you should strongly consider.
🤔 Can Keaton Mitchell Do It Again?
Mitchell was one of the hottest waiver pickups for Week 10, and he’s expected to play despite dealing with a questionable designation. However, can you trust him enough to start him?
There are a lot of strong offensive teams on bye this week, so you might need to replace some starters at running back or flex. Still, Mitchell is nothing better than a desperation option. We have him ranked 117th among flex plays, and only Ian Hartitz has him ranked inside his top 100.
Despite his big day last week, Mitchell only played on 17% of the snaps. He has upside, but it remains to be seen how involved he’ll be on a weekly basis.
Taking a wait-and-see approach is probably best for the time being.
📺 Fantasy Life on LG Channels: LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!
Get all of your last-minute news from the best in the business!!
Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz get you ready for all of the day's action on Fantasy Showtime Live exclusively on LG Channels!
When: TODAY at 11:00 am EST
Where: LG Channels on LG Smart TVs, WebOS-enabled devices, and the LG Channels App (Link Tune In Tweet)
Who: The Fantasy Life team of Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela & Ian Hartitz
Why: Because they are going to get you ready to win your dominate your fantasy matchups before kick-off including:
Kyler Murray is back...so is James Conner.
How will Monty's return affect Jahmyr?
Ian's Bold Prediction!
Welcome to Week 10 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from his Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
Another winner! If you’re tailing our group parlays, we’re now 2-2 after hitting again last week (+8.92 units overall, if betting one unit). The New Orleans Saints SGP came through as did my D’Andre Swift rush attempts over.
You can find a bigger overall recap using the link at the bottom, but for now, let’s get right into the Week 10 plays.
Play to: +100
This is a play we are aligned on (in some way or another) in the free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
The Cardinals are getting Kyler Murray AND James Conner back, but they are also facing a failing Atlanta defense that isn’t great at getting to the QB (10th fewest sacks).
Trends also favor a bounceback. Per The Action Network, teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%). If Arizona covers they’re likely going to win, so going moneyline makes sense.
Deshaun Watson over 28.5 pass attempts was one of the first bets I made this week so an over on his yards is something I endorse.
Watson was solid last week (7.3 yards per attempt) and the Browns should be looking to attack through the air after the Ravens stifled them on the ground in Week 4. Our projections love this one, giving a near-20-yard edge to the over.
Play to: 13.5 (-115)
Aggregate projection: 13.2 attempts
Alvin Kamara is now dealing with competition for carries from three different sources (Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill, Kendre Miller) and has seen his carry percentage drop in four straight games.
Despite that, he’s still got a line in the low to mid-teens for carries. The Vikings are a tougher run defense (5th best yards per carry against) and make Kamara being a better receiving target in Week 10.
Cardinals ML (+105)
Deshaun Watson o188.5 passing yards (-115)
Alvin Kamara u13.5 rush attempts (-105)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
📈 Week 10 Ladder Bet: Amari Cooper, WR - Browns (BetMGM)
75+ rec yards (+166) - play to +150
100+ rec yards (+410) - play to +400
Let’s build on our Watson prop from above. Despite having gone for 80+ yards in five of eight starts this year, we are still able to get Amari Cooper to go for 75+ yards at odds above +150 on BetMGM.
Further, the Ravens’ ability to start quickly (scored first in eight of nine games) means it’s more likely the Browns take to the air quickly. Baltimore has allowed two 100+ yard games to opposing WRs and ceded 75+ yards in a game five times.
Cooper has averaged 17.6 yards per catch and has a massive 43% air yards share. With Baltimore suppressing his odds, it’s a good time to “ladder up” on the Browns WR1.
😆 If Arthur Smith had the flu…sounds about right.
🤯 The Panthers tried to trade for two star WRs at the deadline. This would have been interesting.
🔥 +20.5 units over the last 30 days and all for free? Yes, please.
👎️ Michael Thomas was arrested on battery charges. Full details here.
🔨 Time to break out the toolbox. Week 10 bets to hammer.
🙏 Awful news out of Texas. RIP.
📈 The new-look Titans are explosive. Take advantage of a market that hasn’t adjusted.
🍼 Tommy Devito lives with his mom. And he’s not ashamed.
💋 I never thought I’d have to share “The Kiss” in the Watercooler. But here we are.
Everyone knows the best plays. Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Stefon Diggs. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
Week 10 sets up as a much better slate than last week, with four games featuring totals with more than 45 projected points. Two of the games are pretty picked over ADP-wise (Chargers/Lions and Bengals/Texans), but the other two games present us with multiple sneaky plays that could result in a big payday…
💎 Seahawks vs. Commanders
QB Geno Smith (ADP: 35.4)
WR Tyler Lockett (ADP: 34.9)
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: 35.9)
QB Sam Howell (ADP 35.7)
We attacked this porous Commanders' secondary last week and we are going back to the well here again.
In Week 9, they squared off against a Patriots team that fields a collection of WRs that more closely resembles an XFL squad than an NFL one. This week they’ll face a much tougher test vs. arguably the best WR trio in the NFL.
DK Metcalf (ADP: 19.1) is going fairly high in drafts, but Geno (QB7), Lockett (WR19) & Smith-Njigba (WR29) are often going undrafted in my early Battle Royale drafts.
This dynamic is eerily similar to last week when Stroud was going just outside the Top 6 QBs, Nico Collins was going in the Metcalf range, and Dell and Schultz were going largely undrafted.
This is the exact dynamic we should be looking to exploit in this contest:
Despite having very similar projections, one player is being drafted 100% of the time, and the other is being drafted less than 20% of the time.