We're Back

Get Ready for Packers vs. Vikings

Packers vs. Vikings Is Week 1’s Featured National Game

The NFC North takes center stage Week 1! Stream the NFL on CBS to catch all of the action from Packers vs. Vikings live on Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Fantasy

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from your favorite football nerds …

🙌 Matthew brought in a special guest to talk wide receivers: Adam Thielen.

😭 Brock Bowers is out 1-2 weeks (at a minimum). The fantasy fallout.

🏆 Survivor picks for Week 1. The road to winning it all starts now.

🚀 Kyler Murray top-five QB in Week 1? The upside is insane.

👀 What sharp money is telling us for Week 1 fantasy football. A sneaky TE to start.

🍋 Join a league and get a shot to win $25K. Play Harder & it’s Free.

💰 Picks, props and predictions for TNF. Smash the Blake Corum over.

⚔️ The best and worst DvP matchups for Week 1. Garrett Wilson time.

🔮 The next Puka? 3 things to watch for dynasty managers to watch in Week 1.

💥 Young RBs break out? The betting community says they will.

🤩 JSN picked up where he left off. Still, get well soon, Darnold.

Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Week 1 is here, which means it is time to turn draft-day takes into actual start 'em, sit 'em decisions for Week 1 fantasy football. This column uses the Fantasy Life Projection Model, Freedman’s Game Model, projected roles, injuries, depth-chart changes and matchup context to identify the players whose Week 1 outlooks are better—or worse—than their ADP and usual reputation suggest.

A “sit” is not always a must-bench. It means that player is a downgrade relative to expectation and may be worth fading for a similarly ranked option in a better role, matchup, or scoring environment.

Happy Week 1, y'all!!!

QB Start of the Week: Jared Goff

• Confidence: Low-end QB1 with Mid-Range QB1 Upside

• Lineup Call: Start in all 12-team formats. Viable low-end QB1 in 10-team leagues, especially if you are choosing between him and another pocket passer in a lower-scoring environment.

The Lions carry the second-highest team total of Week 1 at 27.5 in Freedman's Game Model, against a Saints secondary that lost its best defensive back, slot corner Alontae Taylor, in free agency. That will make life easier on Amon-Ra St. Brown, who aligned inside 47% of the time last season.

Detroit’s backfield situation adds another reason to be bullish. David Montgomery is no longer behind Jahmyr Gibbs, while Isiah Pacheco is on IR, leaving Jacob Saylors as the No. 2 option. The Lions no longer have the proven two-back setup that helped them lean on the run last season. With fewer established answers behind Gibbs, Detroit could put more of its Week 1 offense on Goff’s right arm.

The Fantasy Life Projection Model forecasts Goff for 263 passing yards and two touchdowns. That projection aligns exactly with the market, where his aggregate passing-yardage prop sits at 263 yards (the model is pretty good at this projection thing, y'all). Goff cleared that mark 47% of the time last year—a very high rate for a number that high in this era of passing.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 17.8

• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 21.9

• Floor: 14.2

Goff was drafted as the QB16 but ranks ahead of multiple names he was drafted behind this summer, including Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, and Patrick Mahomes. This week he is the No. 10 QB in our consensus ranks. His floor is slightly lower than balanced, dual-threat options, but confidence in his median outcome is high.

Goff is my QB10, and I am not even the most bullish of our rankers—Zain Dhanani and Alex Cupps have Goff ranked 8th and 9th, respectively.

Bold Predictions For Week 1

Every Thursday here at Fantasy Life, Adam Pfeifer will provide some bold predictions for the week ahead in fantasy football. As we progress in the season, this article will feature many more under-the-radar players who can be potential fill-in options for you if bye weeks or injuries are impacting your roster. 

Let’s get bold.

Tyler Shough Finishes As A Top-Five QB

Admittedly, I’d feel better about this call if the Saints had Jordyn Tyson available. But New Orleans had nothing at WR2 last season, and Shough still averaged a healthy 16.4 fantasy points per game from Week 8 on, good for the QB14 in fantasy. Shough flashed some of the things we love from a fantasy quarterback—rushing and deep passes. During that span, 20.9% of Shough’s pass attempts were 15-plus yards downfield (13th), while 12% traveled at least 20 yards. Shough was also pretty efficient during the second half of his first NFL season, ranking:

• 6th in completion rate (68%)

• 7th in passing YPG (238.4)

• 10th in offensive throw EPA (56.4)

Shough was solid as a passer, but also added plenty of production with his legs. From Week 8 on, he handled 8% of the designed rush attempts (1.8 per game), as well as 20% of the inside-the-five carries. Overall, Shough averaged 4.5 carries and about 20 rushing yards per game during the second half of the year.

I love this Week 1 matchup with the Lions. For starters, this game features a total of around 50 points, and we know the Saints will have to throw to keep up. Secondly, the Lions' secondary is a serious issue right now, as starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both open the year on IR. This has been a man-heavy scheme for years now, and that didn’t change in Kelvin Sheppard’s first year as DC. The Lions deployed man coverage over 30% of the time last year, a top-five rate in football. I always look for quarterback rushing upside against man-centric defenses because the defenders’ backs are almost always turned when the quarterback takes off to run. Detroit has ranked top-five in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks in three of the last four years. 

9 Moves To Make Before Week 1: Terrance Ferguson?

We finally had some football! Does that mean you’re done because your drafts are behind you? Not a chance. Kendall, Dwain and Pete join up to talk about players who could be targets on the waiver wire. Subscribe to the Fantasy Life Show and catch every episode during the season.