🔑 Waiver Wire Keys and MNF Debrief

One week until the fantasy playoffs…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Well, that sucked.

The Bengals and Jaguars were tied 28-28 late in the 4th quarter of an unexpectedly awesome Monday night contest when Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his teammate and suffered a brutal-looking ankle injury.

Here’s to hoping the news continues to trend in a relatively positive direction and Lawrence can safely get back onto the football field as soon as possible, but man, that didn’t look good.

Of course, the football went on, and Bengals QB Jake Browning (354 pass yards, 2 total TD) deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to pull out the 34-31 overtime victory. The 27-year-old signal-caller was wildly impressive (9.6 YPA and 86% completion rate) on his way to efficiently attacking all areas of the field and spearheading by far the team’s best offensive effort since Joe Burrow was lost for the season.

Accordingly, the lift under center helped the likes of Ja’Marr Chase (11-149-1) and Joe Mixon (117 total yards, 2 TD) post some big-time numbers for fantasy faithful.

Other than some warranted newfound optimism in Cincy’s offensive attack, the biggest takeaways from the evening lie in the injury department.

📉 C.J. Beathard is the next man up in Jacksonville

The former third-round pick started 12 games for the 49ers from 2017 to 2020 and proved that not everyone is capable of putting up high-end efficiency numbers in a Kyle Shanahan-led offense.

While Beathard has been in Jacksonville ever since 2021 and “knows the system”, his presence under center warrants a massive downgrade for the offense as a whole and thus each of the individual fantasy pieces.

Credit to the veteran for completing nine of 10 passes for 63 yards in relief, but this offense will be projected as one of the league’s lowest-scoring units should he be under center for upcoming matchups with the Browns and Ravens.

Don’t be surprised if RB Travis Etienne is leaned on more than ever during a potential T-Law absence — particularly with another member of this once ascending passing attack also suddenly banged up.

😞 Oh yeah, Jaguars WR Christian Kirk (groin) is hurt too

The non-contact injury happened on literally the Jaguars’ first offensive snap of the game as Kirk caught a 26-yard pass before crumpling to the ground.

The 27-year-old veteran hasn't missed a game since 2020 and has only nine absences to his name since entering the NFL in 2018. Toughness won’t be an issue here, but it’s certainly not the time of the year that anyone wants to be dealing with a lower-body injury of any shape or size.

With a healthy Lawrence under center, Kirk’s potential short-term absence would provide booms to each of Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram (congrats on the first TD btw!) and Zay Jones — but without? None shape up as “must-start” fantasy assets by any stretch of the imagination ahead of miserable matchups with two of the league’s very best pass defenses.

Injuries suck, but like Matthew Berry always says: The most important fantasy matchup is the next one.

Fine, I’ve technically never heard Fantasy Life’s fearless leader say that, but you got to admit, it’s got a ring to it. Either way, it’s time to round the squad into shape before the biggest three weeks of the year. LET’S GET AFTER IT.

Enter Fantasy Life Resident of Sheesh Ian Hartitz, who has made it his life mission to report all of the beyond-the-box-score near-miss moments that happen during any given week of football. You know? The moments that simply make fantasy managers say, “Sheesh!”

Without further adieu: The Week 13 Sheesh Report.

💣 Puka Nacua almost went nuclear

Yes, 139 total yards and a TD qualify as a rather great afternoon at the office.

Also yes, the Rams’ stud rookie WR quite easily could have added another 100 yards and a score to that stat line with just a bit better luck against the Browns.

Fantasy managers are just happy Nacua’s early injury scare didn’t wind up keeping him sidelined. Credit to the stud receiver on yet another great performance: Puka’s 17-game receiving yards pace (1,458) now puts him ahead of Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie record (1,455) in the Super Bowl era.

👀 Don’t say Russell Wilson didn’t try to get Courtland Sutton the ball

Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) in the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t overly catchable in the first place, so grinding the ole film helps with identifying those sorts of situations.

Nine players racked up at least 85 unrealized air yards in Week 13 specifically:

• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (153)

• Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (138)

• Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley (137 - this miss, in particular, was an emotional rollercoaster)

• Browns WR Elijah Moore (125)

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (117)

• Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (108 – this should have been a DPI)

• Browns WR Cedric Tillman (96)

• Patriots WR DeVante Parker (90 – SO close to hauling in this spectacular catch)

• Falcons WR Drake London (85)

The chunk of Sutton’s week-high unrealized air yards came on the very first two plays of the game, as the veteran receiver was first fed a slightly underthrown contested incompletion, while the second sheesh was a flat-out drop instead of a chunk 45-yard gain.

You know who can complain about Russ not getting them the ball? Jerry Jeudy, and head coach Sean Payton went out of his way to do so on his behalf: “Really, if you look at the tape closely and you watch all of it—I know some of you get to do that. If you watch all of it, holy cow, there are about two or three of those plays.”

Challenge accepted, coach. I believe these are the three plays Payton was referring to.

Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.

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Fantasy Football Championship Sunday is literally on December 31st. That means there are just 26 days between you and everything you’ve ever wanted. One moment. Will you capture it? Or just let it slip?

Okay sorry, got carried away there a bit — first things first: Utilization, baby. And Dwain McFarland just so happens to be the master of reporting it.

Presenting: The Week 13 Utilization Report.

📈 Nico Collins enters WR1 territory with an injury to Tank Dell.

Collins erupted for 34.1 fantasy points in Week 13, and with the loss of Dell for the season, he is the clear-cut No. 1 in one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. The third-year WR ranks No. 11 on the season with 17.7 points per game and is on a target tear, averaging 10.7 since returning from a calf injury that caused him to miss Week 10. 

On snaps without Dell, Collins’ target share climbs from 20% to 31%, and his air yards share balloons from 25% to 41%. While he won’t likely sustain a 31% target share, it is in the range of outcomes, and any increase from his current 22% could push him into mid-range WR1 territory.

Based on 12-year utilization and efficiency data, the average for a WR with Collins’ profile is 19.8 points with a WR5 finish – assuming he takes a small step forward in target share. If his target earning doesn’t take a step forward, the comp group average is WR20 at 14.3 points.

Collins draws tough matchups against the Jets and Browns but has two juicy outings against the Titans over the next four games.

Outlook: Collins UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status.

🚀 Bijan Robinson’s three-week workload trend is high-end RB1-worthy.

Every year, there are a few situations where we have to disregard the utilization percentages because a player’s workload is touch-count driven rather than snap-count driven. While Robinson’s underlying percentages have remained turbulent over the last three games, his opportunities have stabilized, averaging 18.7 attempts and 4.3 targets per game.

This hasn’t been a byproduct of games with more plays, either. The Falcons have 65, 62 and 65 snaps over this span – in line with their 65.8 play-per-game average on the season.

So now we have one of the most efficient backs in the NFL, getting the workload we have been waiting for all season. He currently ranks as the RB16 with 14.4 points per game but profiles much more like a mid-range RB1 moving forward. 

The average finish for similar-profile RBs since 2012 is RB6, with 18.7 points per game – precisely in line with his three-game average. The top comp was 2019 Dalvin Cook (21.2 PPG), and the bottom was 2017 LeSean McCoy (16.6 PPG).

Of course, we must exercise at least a modicum of restraint in our exuberance for Robinson because Arthur Smith still roams the sidelines in Atlanta. On any other team, I would upgrade him to high-end RB1 status, but I have been fooled too many times by Smith.

Outlook: Robinson UPGRADES to mid-range RB1 status.

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 14. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 14 rankings set here!

💀 Sean McVay explained his late-game decision to get Kyren Williams a TD. One of us!

😭 This fantasy football season is starting to feel like Final Destination. Can God PLEASE turn injuries off already?

✈️ Can’t figure out who to start on the fantasy squad ahead of Week 14? The Jets can relate.

🤝 The Week 14 Waiver Wire Add of the Week. Is he available in your league?

👍 Sean McVay with an overall good health update on Puka Nacua. Hurt not injured.

📊 The first run of Week 14 rankings is live. America’s QB retains the top spot.

😮 Dean Blandino had thoughts on Sunday night’s brutal missed DPI call. The worst call since WHEN?

🤔 There’s a new NFL MVP favorite. Agree or disagree?

✍️ The Eagles make a splash free agency signing. Howie can’t keep getting away with this.

😅 Derrick Henry (head) didn’t finish the game last week. Luckily he’s not as injured as many thought. 

Even in this market, Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Expert Chris Allen never asks his clients to judge him on his winners. He asks them to judge him on his losers because he has so few. And in the case of this week’s player pool, based on every technical factor out there, Chris believes we are looking at a few grand slam home runs.

The last five days of football action felt like a conventional week.

We got big performances out of most of our top players. There was an upset or two. Five games topped 50 points.

But this isn’t the time for our normal approach to waivers.

For most leagues, it’s the final game of the regular season. Usually, we’re making pick-ups to plan for the future. But for some fantasy managers, it’s now or never.

So, keeping some of the injury storylines in mind, I’ve got the top waiver adds for Week 14.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

💨 Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans

Derrick Henry’s practice participation will be the storyline for Tennessee’s offense. Through the first three quarters on Sunday, Henry handled 65.6% of the carries. However, after the king went down, Tyjae Spears fell into the role we envisioned for him at the start of the season.

The Tulane product took all of the RB carries while tacking on two targets for a 15.4% share of the looks from Will Levis. Going back to our analysis of Spears’s collegiate production, he has the efficiency and explosiveness to operate as the team’s RB1 should Henry miss time. And against the Dolphins in Week 14, who just gave up 11.2 PPR points to Antonio Gibson, Spears should be at the top of our priorities.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 30%

💪 Ezekiel Elliott, RB - Patriots

If I were to tell you a backup RB got this amount of work after the starter got injured, we’d empty the clip to pick up the healthy option:

• Team Rushing Share: 84.2% (no other RB got a carry)

• Target Share: 27.8% (2nd on the team)

This rusher got 20 touches in just three quarters. And with a quick turnaround for TNF, it’s less likely his rule over the backfield gets challenged. Only one problem: he plays for the Patriots.

Ezekiel Elliott took over for Rhamondre Stevenson after a hip-drop tackle claimed another victim. So, despite the unfortunate circumstances, the former Cowboy has a high-end opportunity in front of him but is in a low-end situation. New England is averaging 26.4 yards per drive (25th-most) over the last month and snapped the ball 24 times in their opponent’s red zone (third-fewest). 

And with a tough out against the Steelers on Thursday (defense ranked top 12 in EPA per rush and success rate allowed over their last six games), all we can rely on is volume for the veteran RB.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 30%

🐶 Elijah Moore, WR - Browns 

Let’s start with Elijah Moore’s situation.

With Joe Flacco under center, the Browns’ aerial attack saw its highest amount of passing attempts in any game all season. Flacco threw for 543 air yards. The next-closest mark was 395 by Deshaun Watson back in Week 2. Both marks are (usually) the ingredients for a fantasy-friendly passing game. We just needed most of them to go toward one player. And they did.

After Amari Cooper left for a concussion evaluation, Elijah Moore assumed the WR1 role. Since Moore and Flacco had spent time together in New York, the two reconnecting was a foregone conclusion. But Moore earning nine targets was the result of a perfect storm.

Moore’s 29.3% target share was the third-highest of any WR this season, and he joined Cooper in cresting the 50.0% mark in air yards. With competitive matchups ahead (JAX, CHI, HOU), an aggressive passing game should keep Moore in the WR2/3 conversation, depending on Cooper’s Week 14 availability.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%