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Using The Touchdown Crystal Ball
More touchdowns, or less?
The positive and negative regression talks come around every single year. We did it with Baker Mayfield after his incredible 2024 season, where he threw a touchdown on 7.2% of his pass attempts. Last season, many conversations also focused on James Cook after he scored 16 touchdowns on the ground, scoring on 7.7% of his attempts.
Now, we’re going to do it again. You know I like to stay a little optimistic, so let's dive into some players that could score fewer touchdowns than last year in 2026, and some that could outperform based on our season-long projections.
Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND
2025 Touchdowns: 20
2026 Projection: 15
It was a tale of two halves for Jonathan Taylor last season—fantasy managers of Taylor felt like they were cruising to a fantasy championship after he averaged 24.8 points per game from Weeks 1-13 (RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey). Then Daniel Jones got hurt, and the whole offense fell off. Taylor was the RB22 in fantasy points per game the rest of the way. The concern here is what the offense will look like in 2026 and what version of Jones we are going to see. The scoring offense went from first in Weeks 1-9 (31.4 points per game) to 14th in Weeks 10-18 (22)!
Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI
2025 Touchdowns: 11
2026 Projection: 5
Yeah, this feels like a layup to point out, because who really expected Dallas Goedert to show out last season like this?! Former OC Kevin Patullo was pretty bad, but Goedert thrived, scoring 13 touchdowns in 16 games (including playoffs) last season. When we look at Goedert's career, he has never scored more than five touchdowns in a season. I don't think he's a bad pick in fantasy, just remember he averaged a career-low 9.9 yards per reception, and 8 of those 13 scores came from inside the five-yard line.
Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL
2025 Touchdowns: 11
2026 Projection: 13
I’m just here to say nice things about Bijan Robinson! I actually think he could even outperform our incredible projections in the touchdown department. Tyler Allgeier is no longer here to snipe Robinson. Fun fact (JK, it's not that fun), Robinson handled just 48% of Atlanta’s inside-the-five-yard-line carries. YUCK! This offense isn't as inviting as one like the Lions, where Jahmyr Gibbs is mostly going as the 1.01 in drafts right now. Robinson is lethal on the ground and through the air and will see a monster 2026 season.
Mike Evans | WR | SF
2025 Touchdowns: 3
2026 Projection: 8
I know this is a layup, but who doesn't want to imagine Mike Evans going back to his old ways on a new team?! Sounds pretty fun to me! Evans' 2025 season was injury-filled, hence why we didn't see him hit the 1,000-yard mark or find the end zone much. Now, he goes over to the 49ers with a solid Brock Purdy as his quarterback and a receiver room that is otherwise pretty lackluster. The risk here is clear. Evans will be 33 years old when the season starts, and you're betting on an aging receiver coming off an injury. Still, he's projected to finish as the WR18 with 114 targets, 73 receptions and 985 receiving yards with a current WR23 price tag on Underdog—seems like there's some value there.
Get Draft Ready This Summer
It’s summer, which means that your fantasy drafts are right around the corner. That also means some really good spreads to enjoy with your friends as you pick your teams. Before you indulge, there’s another way to get ready for those drafts.
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Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
Your favorite football nerds are back and bringing you the latest news, content and memes from the NFL universe …
📈 These rankings are WAY higher than ADP … and you should still smash draft.
⚡️ An electric offense and a third-year breakout on tap? Draft this WR ASAP.
🔮 Is the NFL MVP favorite the best bet on the board? There’s value there.
🆚 Nico Collins vs. George Pickens. A WR1 vs a WR2, but who’s the better click?
1️⃣ How are you drafting from 1.01 this year? The only way to do it.
Fantasy
Editors’ Picks
Only nine more Sundays until football is back. Time to lock in! We have you covered with our Fantasy Life Draft Guide, as well as our rankings and projections. And ICYMI, here is some more great content.
Try not to overthink it when it comes to Derrick Henry. Kendall Valenzuela’s weekly mailbag answered this and other pressing questions. |
Just how impactful was Ben Johnson on the Bears? Adam Pfeifer dug into the Utilization Report and team styles to uncover important trends. |
It’s hard to imagine, but Patrick Mahomes really could be undervalued in 2026. Justin Carlucci dove into auction talk, specifically how to tackle the QB position. |
Proceed With Caution With Potential 2026 Busts …
We don’t dislike players.
We dislike ADPs.
That’s really what it comes down to when breaking down fantasy football bust candidates. Identifying players who may not live up to their draft position, especially with similarly projected players coming off the board a few picks later. It’s not fun to be a pessimist, but here are Adam Pfeifer’s top bust candidates for the 2026 season.
❌ Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR
Look. McMillan is an awesome player coming off a very impressive rookie year. And as crazy as it is to say about a 23-year-old sophomore wide receiver, I actually question the fantasy ceiling.
70 catches, 1,014 yards and 7 touchdowns is a very strong season, especially for a rookie. But it didn’t exactly translate to a ton of fantasy upside on a weekly basis.
McMillan finished as WR16 overall and WR20 PPG. He finished as a top-12 wideout just twice all year long, while ranking outside the top-24 receivers in 12 of 17 weeks. Of course, to no one’s surprise, McMillan operated as the clear alpha in Carolina, sporting a 26% target share, while his 43% air yards share ranked fifth among all wideouts with at least 100 routes. Entering 2026, McMillan will once again lead this team in targets, while his 56% catch rate should improve.
But can this overall passing attack improve?
The Panthers aren’t going to air the ball out very much. Last year, Carolina ranked 27th in pass rate over expected (-4%), while its 66% pass rate when trailing by four-plus points ranked 22nd. And while he’d occasionally show flashes, Young failed to reach 200—not even 300—passing yards in 12 of 17 games. And among 37 qualified quarterbacks, Young’s metrics didn’t exactly wow anyone:
30th in EPA/play (-0.03)
33rd in YPA (6.3)
22nd in CMP% (63.6%)
Again, no one should expect McMillan to struggle for targets in this offense. But it is also fair to wonder what the target share might look like with a fully healthy Jalen Coker, who made his season debut in Week 8. And following Carolina’s Week 14 bye, which included Carolina’s playoff game against the Rams, the usage was eyebrow-raising:
McMillan: 23% target share, 18% TPRR, 25% EZ targets
Coker: 22% target share, 19% TPRR, 32% EZ targets
On draft day, I’d prefer Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson and Terry McLaurin over McMillan, all of whom are being drafted after him.
Luther Burden Is Among The Best Dynasty Startup Picks
Dynasty fantasy football startup drafts remain one of the single-best events in all of fantasy football. You have your entire future ahead of you, and you can build your roster however you want. As we approach mid-July, here are my current favorite targets in single-QB dynasty startups based on current dynasty fantasy football rankings.
🔥 Luther Burden | WR | CHI
It sure seems like everyone in the fantasy space is excited about Luther Burden, and it's becoming incredibly easy to see why.
Currently valued as the WR17, Burden has the profile and trajectory to be a WR1 by this time next year, and I don't think that's even that hot of a take. Now that DJ Moore is in Buffalo, the path to becoming the No. 1 option for a Ben Johnson-led offense captained by Caleb Williams is wide open.
To be sure, the end-of-season numbers don't jump off the page. Burden appeared in 15 games and tallied:
60 targets
47 receptions
652 receiving yards
2 TDs
In fact, his single-best performance came in Week 17 (fantasy championship weekend) when he erupted for 8/138/1 on nine targets.
But this is how you know the fantasy community is getting smarter. Despite the outward numbers being pedestrian at best, his underlying metrics hint at elite upside. In a piece he penned earlier this offseason, Dwain McFarland showed how Burden compared to guys like Rashee Rice and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the year before each of them broke out.
You're going to want to read his analysis.
In fact, if you want more pro-Burden propaganda, make sure to check out his player page on our website. There's a ton of useful tools, insights and projections that are sure to keep you clicking "Draft" on Burden as often as you can.
The obvious concern for Burden is the talent around him. Fellow wideout Rome Odunze and rising star TE Colston Loveland are going to demand their own share of opportunities on this offense. In fact, our projections have four different players topping 190 PPR this season.
The Bears are going to feast for their fantasy managers this year, and Burden is going to be at the center of it.
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