🎲 The most unlucky players from 2022

Fun fact: It’s always a great day to be great.

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Athletic:

The 2023 NFL Draft is near, and the Fantasy Life crew has you covered. We’ve got all sorts of dynasty rookie profiles and a rather awesome mock draft on tap to get you through the next week.

But today, we’re going to reminisce about some of the more sheeshful moments from last season in an effort to not forget about the year’s most unlucky events.

🤦‍♂️ Examples of sheeshes include:

• TDs that were taken off the board due to penalty

• Ball carriers who managed to get all the way to the one-yard line but didn’t score

• Pass-catchers who could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass

• Other random sh*t that tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes

😞 The All-Sheesh Team

Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson

Led the NFL with not one, not two, but three TDs nullified by penalty. Nothing is more “sheeshful,” especially when C-Patt busted some rather awesome moves to find paydirt in the first place.

Steelers RB Najee Harris

Nobody was stopped at the one-yard line more than Harris (seven) on drives that did not end with said player scoring a TD. He finished the season as the overall PPR RB14 but would have been the RB8 had just four of those aforementioned stuffs gone just three feet further.

Steelers WR Diontae Johnson

Recorded an NFL-record 147 targets without a TD — the previous NFL-high mark was only 109. Madness. Johnson was so close to scoring on multiple occasions and more than doubled the next-closest WR in terms of most fantasy points below expectation.

Saints WR Chris Olave

Finished second in unrealized air yards (660) behind only Gabe Davis (678). Olave gets the nod due to being part of one of the season’s more confusing “incompletions” while also providing us with a peak Jameis experience game.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

Easily led all TEs in unrealized air yards (411.2). Many of his incomplete targets were of the uncatchable variety, which is especially annoying when you consider Pitts boasts the largest measured wingspan of any NFL TE or WR of the last 20 years.

💀 Top-five sheesh moments

5.) Hunter caught it

Patriots TE Hunter Henry had a short TD taken off the board due to his inability to maintain control of the football while going to the ground.

And yet, further replay sure seemed to show that the football never even hit the ground — Henry’s left hand was under the ball the entire time. Sheesh.

4.) The man did not step out of bounds

Justin Jefferson posted an electric 11-223-0 receiving line against the Lions in Week 14. But, to this day, I have no idea why he didn’t get rewarded with an additional 32 yards and a TD on this long catch and run.

3.) The selfish “stop at the one-yard line to ensure victory but not score a TD” thing

OK, fine. It’s not actually selfish. But nothing causes more PTFD (post-traumatic fantasy disorder) than a ball carrier pulling an old-school Brian Westbrook/Todd Gurley move and falling down just short of the goal line with minimal time left on the clock to preserve the victory.

This happened on three occasions last season:

• Saquon Barkley: Shame he had to waste such a cool spin move

• Antonio Gibson: Hilariously didn’t even get the first down

• Devin Singletary: Warranted, but sheesh

2.) Easy monster TD … dropped

Both Christian Watson (on the first offensive play of the season!) and Mike Evans (on the third play of the game!) were guilty.

Sheesh.

1.) The Washington screw job

Commanders RB Brian Robinson appeared to get the team just a two-point conversion away from tying the Giants on Sunday night in Week 15 after punching the ball into the end zone from the one-yard line.

Plot twist: Flag for an illegal formation on Terry McLaurin. 

He wasn’t on the line of scrimmage … although McLaurin quite literally asked the ref if the star WR was set, and the official seemed to indicate McLaurin was. McLaurin himself clarified after the game that this was what happened.

Sheesh.

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🐆 Pittsburgh RB Israel Abanikanda

• Rookie Super Model: 63rd percentile

• Rookie Ranking: 24 (RB10)

📈 Pros

Abanikanda has been one of the fastest risers throughout the draft process. Back when the season ended, he was the 234th-ranked prospect on consensus big boards, but now he currently sits at 108.

Abanikanda's athletic prowess is truly remarkable. Standing at 5'10" and weighing in at 216 pounds, this former track star blazed through his pro-day with an impressive 4.45 40-yard dash, showcasing his exceptional speed. Additionally, his 97th percentile burst score is a testament to his explosiveness. This tremendous athleticism is evident in his game tape, as he consistently demonstrates an ability to accelerate quickly and evade defenders, rarely getting caught from behind.

He is a dynamic one-cut runner who has the build to be a workhorse back. Pittsburgh fed him the rock 239 times last season. Not only did he put up impressive raw numbers, but his efficiency was equally noteworthy, averaging an impressive six yards per carry and 57 breakaway yards per game.

Furthermore, his ability to break through tackles and make explosive plays was evident, with a total of 19 carries of 15-plus yards. Abanikanda's tough and determined running style is exemplified by his refusal to be denied the endzone, resulting in an impressive 20 TDs.

📉 Cons

Lance Zierlein compares Abinkanda to Isiah Pacheco, and I couldn’t agree more. Abinaknda is a big, fast runner who sometimes feels like he has no idea where he is going but is excited to get there.

He needs to develop patience and vision as a runner. His inability to press the line of scrimmage will become more prevalent at the next level.

Where he differs from Pacheco is Abinkanda doesn’t have the finishing ability through contact: He averaged just 2.67 yards after contact which is a below-average mark, and his 644 yards after contact ranked just 67th in the nation last season per PFF.

While some may point out his lack of production prior to his junior year, he is so young that it worries me far less than most.

🏆 Fantasy Outlook

Abanikanda has been moving up fantasy boards faster than NFL draft boards. Perhaps the leader of the hype train, Pat Kerrane has been singing his praises for months.

If he goes on Day Two of the draft, get excited. However, if he falls to round four, where he is currently projected to go, let's slow down the hype train. In the last 10 years, 13 rookie RBs have produced top-12 seasons, just two didn't go in the first three rounds of the draft.

Abanikanda is a great example of pressing an advantage early. He was a perfect swing in the later rounds of best ball leagues. But now that he is pushing his way into round 12, you are drafting a guy who will most likely fall to round four of the draft.

🏈 Pretty, pretty, pretty exciting best ball news. It’s almost time!

❓ A second-year WR who flashed high-end rookie-year efficiency. Is that something you might be interested in?

🎢 Pete can’t stop drafting this rising third-year TE. BUY THE DIP.

📡 Which vets will make the leap? These Vikes should be on your radar.

🦅 The Eagles made another splash offseason move. Darius Slay probably isn’t a fan.

🐬 Tom Brady was asked about the possibility of joining a certain AFC East squad. So you’re saying there’s a chance.

🚑 Underwhelming update on a certain stud rising third-year RB. Will God turn off injuries already?

💘 The Chiefs might not be done adding to their RB room. Stop! In the name of LOVE.

😟 A potential GIANT problem in New York. No news isn’t good news.

Dwain McFarland has put in all kinds of work developing Super Models at RB, WR and TE alike. Below he breaks down his top-three picks for rookie drafts.

🥇 1. Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas

The phrase generational talent has taken heat recently. However, don’t let that keep you from attaching that label to Robinson. The former five-star recruit is 100% deserving, given he is the only RB in our Rookie Super Model to earn a 100th-percentile score since 2017.

The list of backs to reach the 90th percentile or higher will make your palms sweat and lips tingle:

• Saquon Barkley: 95th

• Christian McCaffrey: 91st

• Jonathan Taylor: 91st

• Dalvin Cook: 91st

• Leonard Fournette: 91st

• Javonte Williams: 90th

Those backs posted a combined six top-six finishes in their first three seasons. The only back from that crew without a top-12 finish is Williams, who was on the verge of taking over the Broncos backfield last year before injuring his knee.

Bijan belongs in a tier all by himself, and if any of your dynasty league mates want to pry the first pick away from you – MAKE THEM PAY!!!

🥈 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State

You are on the fast track to superstardom when your resume includes balling the hell out as a sophomore while battling for targets with two future first-round NFL Draft picks. That is precisely what JSN accomplished in 2021 when he locked down a 23% target share and led Ohio State with 3.22 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) on an offense with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

His 90th-percentile Rookie WR Super Model grade is No. 1 in the class, and his Power Five comps since 2017 are pretty, pretty dope:

• Ja’Marr Chase: 94th percentile

• CeeDee Lamb: 93rd percentile

• DeVonta Smith: 93rd percentile

• Rashod Bateman: 90th percentile

• Jaylen Waddle: 89th percentile

• Jerry Jeudy: 89th percentile

• Marquise Brown: 89th percentile

Six out of seven WRs have registered a top-24 finish in their first two to three seasons, with only Bateman completely whiffing (and he has battled injuries). Four guys have notched a top-12 finish, while Lamb and Chase both have top-six season’s on their resume.

Scream it with me, y’all: J-S-N is a fantasy win, win, win!!!

🥉 3. Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama

We love RBs that can demand targets and create big plays – it is a recipe for success, as we have seen with Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler.

So does anyone care to guess who comps the closest to Gibbs in the Rookie RB Super Model?

Jahmyr friggin’ Gibbs, ladies and gentlemen.

While some will worry about Gibbs’ lack of a substantial rushing workload and his size at 199 pounds, the best path here is not to overthink things. Remember, Ekeler weighed 198, and CMC was 205 coming out of college.

Gibbs has a lot of outs that can play out well in a variety of situations, making him one of the few names in the class where I am willing to get most of my chips in the middle.

Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V2.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his Nos. 18, 19 and 20 pick with an assist from Dane Brugler and The Beast.

18. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

📣 Summary From The Beast 

A one-year starter at Oregon, Gonzalez was an outside cornerback in Lanning’s man/zone scheme, also seeing time inside versus the slot. After two promising seasons at Colorado, he joined the Ducks for his junior year and led the team in both passes defended and interceptions (he and Utah’s Clark Phillips III were the only Pac-12 defenders with 11-plus passes defended and 4-plus interceptions in 2022).

Coming from a family of diverse athletes, Gonzalez has the frame to match up with NFL size and the speed to keep stride vertically with burners at the next level. His tackling skills and ability to turn and restrict passing lanes are ascending parts of his game, but there is still room for improvement in both areas.

Overall, Gonzalez needs continued work in zone coverage, but he offers strong man-cover talent with speed, fluid movements and body length to blanket outside receivers. With his high-end traits (similar to Jeff Okudah) and trust in his talent, he has the skill set of a future Pro Bowler.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

Selecting Branch in the upcoming draft would be a step in the right direction. While he may not play a premium position, he fills a major need at both safety and slot corner and is currently the second most consistent player mocked to the Buccaneers.

This pick not only helps the team immediately but also gives them the opportunity to start over in 2024 if they choose to do so.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Van Ness dominated with his strength in college, consistently relying on his bull rush. The Iowa pass rusher will need to add finesse to his game at the next level. His 80th percentile 3-cone time suggests he has the athleticism to do just that.