😡 Uh Oh, There’s TROUBLE In Indy

Just say no to invites onto Jim Irsay’s bus...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by AI Tool Report:

If there’s been one overarching theme to this NFL summer it’s disgruntled running backs.

And it’s been an eventful few weeks on that front…

We’ve seen RBs threaten holdouts, cleverly use the PUP to sit out, and even host a big Zoom meeting to figure out a collective plan of attack to earn the money they think they are deserved.

And now we have another angry RB to add to the mix: Colts superstar playmaker, Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor, who will earn $4.3 million this season on the final year of his rookie deal, has officially requested a trade out of Indy with a long-term extension looking unlikely.

Colts owner Jim Irsay hosted Taylor on his luxury bus for an hour on Saturday in an effort to smooth things over (“I can’t offer you a contract extension, but how about some Cliff Bars and a Fiji Water?”).

It doesn’t appear that any progress was made on the bus, though. Irsay delivered this hilariously nihilistic quote after the meeting:

It’s not hard to read between the lines there and conclude that there is no contract offer coming.

In fact, the relationship appears to be further deteriorating with team sources claiming a pre-existing injury could result in Indianapolis withholding his 2023 salary. As you can imagine, Taylor was not pleased with the report.

🔮 So what happens next?

The Colts sound open to listening to trade offers, but it seems very unlikely that there’s an offer out there that would compel the team to actually move him.

As Field Yates notes here, it will be nearly impossible to find a team willing to pay both the trade price and the contract price.

For fantasy purposes, I’ve already seen screenshots of Taylor dropping significantly in drafts. I’m not sure that makes any sense. If a team ponies up for Taylor, they are likely a contending team looking to make a push. Any realistic trade would likely yield an upgrade in QB and offense for Taylor.

I realize we are starting to sound like a broken record on how to handle these situations in fantasy, but let’s say it once more…

Buy the dip.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall gets hyped about training camp all-stars...

It’s the best time of the year! Alright, so that’s probably saved for when football actually starts, but this has to be a close second.

We are talking about TRAINING CAMP.

We’ve already gone over how to decipher the many quotes that we are going to be given over the next few weeks: “Best shape of my life,” “Never seen anything like him,” etc.

While we shouldn’t overreact too much, sometimes it’s hard not to get excited about what we are seeing. Here are some (way too early) standouts that we’ve been talking about the most.

💥 Calvin Ridley

It’s been a long time coming for Calvin Ridley to get back on the field, and damn has he been electric so far. It’s obvious that he is a man on a mission going into 2023.

We have to remember why we haven’t seen Ridley out there in so long. He broke his foot midway through the 2020 season and played through it in all but one game. Then, after only playing in five games in 2021, Ridley stepped away from the Falcons in October for his mental health.

And of course, everything was capped off after he was suspended for the whole 2022 season for gambling.

What I’m trying to say is that Ridley has time he wants to make up for and I think he’s going to do just that.

“I just want my reputation and my name back. That’s what I’m here to do,” Ridley told The Athletic.

In Ridley’s last full season, he finished as a Top-5 fantasy option after collecting 90 passes, 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. It’s understandable to be cautious because his last full season was in 2020, and since then he has only played in five NFL games. Maybe it’ll backfire, but I’m allowing myself to have high expectations for Ridley in 2023.

💥 Bijan Robinson

This one really just seems unfair, but Bijan Robinson looks to be everything we were promised and more.

Look, Robinson was an absolute superstar at Texas and it explains why he was touted as a “generational talent” before the Falcons drafted him. He amassed 1,894 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 12 games in 2022.

HE IS THE CHEAT CODE.

If you see Fantasy Life retweeting (err is it still called that?), liking or commenting on any Robinson videos just mind your business!

💥 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Maybe I am a little biased, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has shown some great highlights throughout the start of training camp and we can’t just ignore them! Quarterback Geno Smith even had high praise for the rookie.

It’s definitely not a given that Smith-Njigba realizes his sky-high upside immediately. Only 12 rookie wide receivers have posted top-24 fantasy numbers (PPR points per game) over the past 10 years, but we can dream!

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🥊 Travis Kelce throws a punch at training camp. In midseason form already.

🚑️ Both Seahawks RBs are injured?? That isn’t good.

🤔 When will Kyler Murray be ready to play? This doesn’t sound good.

🍝 Mac Jones wining and dining a FA RB? Not sitting across from each other?!

🚑️ How Joe Burrow’s calf injury will impact the Bengals. Nice rundown here.

👶 “Justin, sign my baby!” That’s one way to get an autograph.

🐬 Will Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? There may be MVP upside if so…

🚀 A sleeper Chiefs WR is dominating camp. He had time to wipe his hands on the towel at the top of the route!

💼 Frank Gore gets a new gig! He’s putting on a suit.

🍽️ Mack Hollins doesn’t like soft people. Throw away your utensils, everyone.

📈 Brian Robinson is ready for 2023. It’s a new year.

Training camps are officially underway! Sam Wallace analyzes a few players whose stock has increased or decreased as we enter August and explains what dynasty managers should do to stay ahead of the curve.

📈 Dynasty Stock Up: Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson has quickly become one of my most-written-about players this offseason.

Dare I say he’s a leading “my guy” candidate? Perhaps.

The fact remains, his price (in both redraft and dynasty) does not reflect what I think he can bring to both the NFL field and, more importantly, fantasy football rosters.

Once a WR, the converted tailback enters his fourth season after finishing as a top-13 option twice to begin his career. We know the talent and skill set are there, but the missing piece (opportunity) might finally fall into place this season.

First, the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, one of the premier pass-catching RBs of the last few years. Ian Hartitz noted, “Overall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons.”

There could be even MORE opportunity for Gibson to contribute in the passing game. He’s averaged north of 51 targets per year since entering the league. His ceiling is immense.

Fellow RB Brian Robinson is the other key cog of the backfield and his dynasty price is similar to Gibson’s. However, Robinson was an older prospect coming out of college and was one of the least-efficient rushers in 2022.

• PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RBs)

• Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)

• Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)

• Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)

He might be an early-down bruiser but isn’t someone I want to invest in for dynasty formats.

Finally, the Commanders added former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to their staff this offseason and the positive coach-speak on Gibson is already starting.

Commanders HC Ron Rivera said he would like to get Gibson more touches in 2023 and Gibson recently stated he plans on being used in the 3rd-down back, pass-catching role.

With a dynasty ADP of RB32, which is only two picks higher than it was a month ago, Gibson provides the perfect blend of age (25), price, talent, and opportunity that dynasty managers should covet.

📉 Dynasty Stock Down: Dameon Pierce

As a fourth-round rookie, Dameon Pierce was a pleasant surprise during an otherwise forgettable 2022 season for the Houston Texans. He received double-digit carries in 12 of 13 games (he missed the final four weeks) and hauled in 30 of 39 targets.

What really stood out about Pierce was his workload.

Among RBs, Pierce finished No. 4 in percentage of team rushing attempts (76%) and No. 4 in percentage of total team opportunities (37%). That put him in the Derrick Henry/Josh Jacobs/Jonathan Taylor tier of workhorse tailbacks.

The Texans brought over Devin Singletary on a one-year deal to bolster the backfield. In his four-year career, Singletary has never been below 150 rushing attempts, 680 rushing yards, and 40 targets. New head coach DeMeco Ryans & Co. are going to involve both players which could cap the ceiling of both.

Pierce’s dynasty ADP sits at RB19 which is fine for a 23-year-old coming off a stellar season. However, pivoting off of him is a bet I’m willing to make. He likely won’t garner the same share of the backfield opportunity moving forward and his Day 3 draft capital makes him a prime dynasty downgrade.