Two upside RBs hit speed bumps

We went through every practice report and injury situation so you don't have to...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

Week 1 is knocking on the door, and fantasy managers continue to scour the web for any clues that provide an edge.

We all want to avoid a Cam Akers scenario, and the beat reporters and analysts were at it today dropping hints about two backfields and one receiving corps with significant fantasy implications...

😬 The Broncos could use a hot-hand approach at RB.

Javonte Williams crushed every efficiency metric a spreadsheet nerd 🤓 can dream of in 2021. Williams' ranks according to Pro Football Focus (minimum 150 attempts):

• No. 1 in missed tackles forced per attempt (31%)

• No. 4 in average yards after contact (3.4)

• No. 5 in explosive rush rate (10-plus yard attempts)

Only Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt profiled as strong as Williams.

However, Denver brought back Melvin Gordon III, who posted the fourth-best PFF rushing grade (83.4). Additionally, throughout camp, the reports have indicated a closer split than fantasy managers might want.

While we would rather know Williams has a lock on the lead role, one could argue the metrics above make a hot-hand approach the next-best outcome. Williams will have to battle for touches but remains a high-end RB2 and carries league-crushing upside if he can get to 65% of the snaps.

💓 Jets’ OC labels Michael Carter as “the heartbeat” of the offense.

The heartbeat comment makes sense, considering the second-year back’s versatile game. He popped in rushing (27% missed tackles forced per attempt) and receiving metrics (23% targets per route) as a rookie and saw a slight edge in snaps versus Breece Hall this preseason.

Don’t be surprised if we see something more like a 60/40 split early. Hall has the skill set to push for more time eventually, but Carter is the better option in Week 1.

⚠️ Sterling Shepard is back, and Kadarius Toney might be the WR4.

Based on intel gathered by the great Evan Silva from Establish the Run, Toney has fallen out of favor with the Giants’ coaching staff. While we can’t expect Shepard to handle a full complement of snaps off of an Achilles’ injury, he was removed from the injury report on Friday and will suit up.

The most likely scenario is a committee situation with Toney rotating with Kenny Golladay, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Shepard. Toney could play his way into more snaps, but our expectations must be tempered out of the gate despite our excitement around his health. He moves from WR3 to WR4 territory in my rankings for Week 1.

The Fantasy Life Newsletter is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy, and together we must sadly say goodbye to Hot Best Ball Summer.

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• Jaylen Waddle Over 10.95 Fantasy Points

• Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

• Dameon Pierce Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

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RISERS

📈 WR - Deebo Samuel climbs one spot to WR9, with George Kittle listed as questionable after missing practice again on Friday. Samuel sported a 34% target share and two top-eight finishes in three games without Kittle last season.

📈 WR - Brandon Aiyuk climbs three spots to WR35 on the Kittle news, but I already had him slightly ahead of industry consensus to start the week. He is in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy, Christian Kirk and Elijah Moore, with a clear path to the No. 2 role for Week 1 against the Bears.

📈 WR - Marquise Brown was already one of my favorite smash plays for the weekend, and now Rondale Moore is out. With Zach Ertz also questionable, Brown should be the focal point of the Cardinals’ passing attack against the Chiefs in a game with the highest total on the slate at 53.5 per MGM. Brown is my WR12.

📈 WR - Mike Evans averaged a blistering 19.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons in nine games without Chris Godwin – who is a game-time decision.

Godwin isn’t going to be 100% even if he plays, and Russell Gage is also questionable after practicing in a limited fashion all week. Evans should feast against the Cowboys, where the Buccaneers carry the fourth-best implied total on the slate.

📈 WR - Romeo Doubs led the Packers with a whopping 42% targets per route run (TPRR) this preseason. With Allen Lazard unlikely to play, opportunity knocks for the fourth-round rookie. He could push for 80% route participation on a depth chart lacking top-end options. Aaron Rodgers might have to air it out in a divisional game against a high-powered Vikings offense.

📈 RB - Chase Edmonds started the week on the injury report (groin). However, after a full practice on Friday, the newly-minted free agent doesn’t carry an injury designation. Edmonds will share time with Raheem Mostert but should handle the passing-down work and offers explosive playmaking upside – making him my RB17.

FALLERS

📉 QB - Kyler Murray won’t have Rondale Moore, and Ertz is questionable due to a calf injury, pushing him down one spot below Justin Herbert as my QB6.

📉 WR – Chris Godwin is listed as a game-time decision despite a full practice on Friday. If he suits up, we could see a limited workload, and we shouldn’t expect him to approach his typical output, making him a low-end WR3 at best.

🚫 WR - Allen Lazard hasn’t practiced all week due to an ankle injury and is doubtful. I have removed him from my rankings.

🚫 WR - Rondale Moore is out for Week 1.

📉 TE - George Kittle is listed as questionable after missing practice since Monday (groin). If Kittle suits up, he might not be limited. The lack of practice on Friday makes his status closer doubtful than questionable in my eyes.

MONITORING

👀 WR – Michael Thomas is questionable (hamstring) after limited practice participation all week. However, one source said Thomas expects to play, and Dennis Allen indicated he is trending in the right direction. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry become WR3/WR4 options if Thomas can't go.

👀 WR – Drake London is questionable (knee), and we should have a decision by tomorrow. Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson play more significant roles if London can’t go.

👀 WR – Julio Jones is currently a WR4 with upside, but should Godwin or Gage fail to play, he moves into WR3 territory. If both are out, he becomes a WR2 with Tom Brady slinging it in a potential shootout against Dallas. Jones is available in over 55% of ESPN leagues.

👀 RB – J.K. Dobbins is questionable (knee) after practicing in a limited fashion all week. If Dobbins plays, he might not be himself, and the team could look to curtail touches. Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake become low-end RB3/flex options if Dobbins is out.

👀 TE – Zach Ertz is questionable (calf) but practiced in a limited fashion on Friday. The Cardinals play in the late window, so fantasy managers need backup options. Robert Tonyan is only rostered in 16% of ESPN leagues.

 🚀Christian Watson is making the most of his opportunities. He will play Sunday.

💰Looking for DFS stacking options for Week 1? The Chiefs, Titans and Colts are options. 

📊 The Bucs, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Cowboys offenses could explode this weekend. If you love charts, this man has you covered.

🎧 The Fantasy Life Podcast is Live! Dwain McFarland and Marcas Grant discuss the target pecking order in Green Bay and much more. 

❓ Can we expect more from Cam Akers? No. Maybe. At some point. Just kidding. But mostly not. Anything’s possible.

⚠️ The Rams’ offensive line struggled against the Bills. They will be down at least one lineman in Week 2.

👶 Isaiah McKenzie really needed to score this touchdown.  It’s a boy!!!

😩 Did you start any duds like Allen Robinson on Thursday? If you play at the FFPC — you are covered.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what our Director of Content Jordan came up with for Week 1...

Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Jaguars are set to kick off Trevor Lawrence’s sophomore season while hopefully fully cleansing themselves from the disaster that was Urban Myer’s coaching tenure.

This game is very interesting to me from a market perspective, as currently, the Jaguars are +2.5 point underdogs while getting 64% of the total betting tickets and 79% of the total cash. A lot of sharp groups are on the Jaguars this week. I bet the spread at Jaguars +3 earlier this week, but it’s not something I could recommend with confidence at the current number.

I mention all of this to stress that the betting market is high on the Jaguars this week.

Now let’s get into a juicy QB-rushing prop.

I’ll admit, I have a weakness for these props. I tend to bet multiple QB rushing props a week, and you’ll likely see multiple in this column throughout the season from me.

Trevor Lawerence's rushing prop at over 16.5 rushing yards is just simply too low.

Our Fantasy Life projections have him projected for 23 rushing yards, and our friends at Run the Sims have his median rushing projection at 19, with an implied odds of 53.5% vs an actual odds of 56.7%, and via props.cash, Lawrence went over this 16.5 number in 10/17 games last season, with his biggest rushing performance being 39 yards.

Bet this before books adjust in future weeks.

We ran out of space this week, but here are some other bets that I'm on:

• David Montgomery Under 2.5 Receptions(-140 BetMGM)

• Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+130 MGM)

• Jaguars +3 (If you can find it)

These bets and all of our bets are tracked via Pikkit.

Pikkit helps you track all of your action by instantly syncing to your account on all major sportsbooks, and it even works with DFS/Fantasy Pick'em games, sign up and track your picks to become a better player.

Betting lines move quickly throughout the week, so be sure to stay locked on the betting channels in our Discord server throughout the week to get the best numbers!

Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice.

Week 1 has finally arrived, and that means I can fully dive into my kicker monologues. Let’s take a look at my favorite streaming option this week and a guy I’m hesitant to start.

✅ Jake Elliott - Start

According to Yahoo! Eagles K Jake Elliott is rostered in 22% of leagues. Philadelphia gets the Lions Week 1, the team that allowed the most points to the kicker position in 2021. In fact, the Lions allowed double-digit points to the kicker in 11 games last season, which is three more than any other team allowed. Now, you might argue that the Lions' defense got better this off-season, and I’d agree with that, but the Eagles' offense got better, too.

I expect Elliott to see plenty of opportunities in Detroit on Sunday.

🚫 Dustin Hopkins- Sit

Chargers K Dustin Hopkins has a safe floor with XP attempts, but my concerns lie with HC Brandon Staley’s penchant for going for it on 4th down.

If the Chargers come out and dominate the Raiders on Sunday, Hopkins will likely have a strong game. However, my gut tells me that if this divisional match-up is close, Staley will lean into his analytics, keeping the special teams off the field. The Chargers' offense is insane with QB Justin Herbert at the helm so that this one could bite me, but I have to trust my instincts and my instincts lead me to believe this is going to be a close matchup between divisional rivals capping Hopkins ceiling.

Week 1 is always tough to call, having not seen the new offenses and defenses in action yet, but we must prevail.

Check out my full kicker rankings on FantasyLife.com. They’ll be updated each week on Wednesday.