Trust Or Bust For This WR?

Go back to the well ...

Fantasy Life
Dec. 11, 2024
PRESENTED BY

Since Week 8, A.J. Brown has finished outside the Top 24 WRs five times.

He has only one Top-12 finish during that span.

Not since his rookie year has he averaged so few targets per game.

On Sunday, he earned a measly four targets vs. the Panthers.

Peter Overzet

Now fantasy managers are left to wonder…can I possibly trust AJB in Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs?

On the one hand, it’s impossible to use the word “trust” when it comes to the Eagles passing game right now. With Saquon Barkley chasing the rushing record, they’ve literally become the most run-heavy team in the league over the past four weeks.

That said, we might be looking at a squeaky-wheel situation with AJB.

Yesterday, Kellen Moore hinted at getting him more looks this week vs. the Steelers.

And it’s worth noting that the squeaky wheel has historically gotten the ball on this squad.

In his early Week 15 ranks, Matthew Freedman slotted Brown at WR7 as part of the Tier 2 WRs.

It doesn’t feel great, but you have to start him this week. The squeaky wheel is going to get the grease.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 15

  2. Watercooler: Bench what big-name players?

  3. Ian’s Manifesto: Everything you need to know for Week 15

FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 15

Here are two of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 15. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

Joe Mixon (Texans) vs. Dolphins

If you had to create the perfect situational setup for an RB to go off, it might be something like this.

  • Favored

  • At home

  • Off a bye

  • Facing an opponent off an overtime game

Done, done, done, and done.

The setup for Joe Mixon is about as good as it could be.

Minus his injury-impacted Week 2, Mixon has been a league winner in his nine full games with 16-plus opportunities in all of them and 20-plus in all but one. For the season, he's No. 2 at the position in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (9.0).

Given the circumstances and Mixon's history of usage and production, it's fair to expect a big performance from him against the Dolphins, who could be without LB Anthony Walker (hamstring).

David Njoku (Browns) vs. Chiefs

In the seven games since the Browns traded former No. 1 WR Amari Cooper to the Bills in Week 7, David Njoku has been a dominant force.

  • Utilization: 85% route rate | 23% target rate | 24% target share

  • Production: 46-350-5 receiving | 72 targets | Two 2-point conversions

And without WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) over the past two weeks, Njoku has leveled up again.

  • Utilization: 88% route rate | 29% target rate | 31% target share

  • Production: 16-94-3 receiving | 30 targets

Tillman is uncertain for Week 15, but I'm skeptical that he'll play given that he's yet to return to practice and still in the league's protocol. If he's out, then Njoku will once again have a strong shot at double-digit targets against the Chiefs, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.1).

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:

Win Real Cash with Bleacher Nation Fantasy

Receive a no-sweat first entry up to $250!

Attention football fans! Want to win real cash playing a fantasy football game? Download the Bleacher Nation Fantasy app today and put your sports knowledge to the test. Dominate the competition and claim your share of real cash prizes.

Use code: SWEATFREE for a risk-free entry up to $250. Download Bleacher Nation Fantasy from the app store now and don't miss out on this incredible offer!

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🚑️ Bad news for the Steelers. Big matchup to miss.

😬 Big-name players to BENCH for the playoffs? Matthew Berry chimes in.

😭 The 5 Stages of Missing the Fantasy Playoffs. I felt this.

🍝 A new QB in New Orleans. He beat Schefter to the punch.

🚑️ A brutal injury for Dallas. Awful stuff.

🍿 Week 15 playoff scenarios. Things are heating up.

👀 Mark Gastineau wants his sack record back. Lol.

IAN’S MANIFESTO

Week 15 Ian’s Manifesto

  • By Ian Hartitz

Who has the best and worst schedules for the fantasy playoffs?

I've put together the best and worst schedules in terms average PPR points allowed to each position on a few occasions this year, so why not one more before the biggest home stretch of the season?

Feel free to click the hyperlink on each position for a full chart.

  • Best schedules: Titans, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Panthers

  • Worst schedules: Lions, Patriots, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers

  • FocusCardinals QB Kyler Murray, who gets the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams to end the season. Things haven't gone great for the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to keep Kyler out of the top 10 in each of these respective potential smash spots. The pint-sized franchise QB does deserve credit for clearing 250 pass yards in five of his last six games after surpassing that threshold just once in his first seven contests; a boom or two on the ground could result in a top-5 finish here.

  • Best schedules: Jets, Lions, Titans, Vikings, Cardinals

  • Worst schedules: Steelers, Chiefs, Texans, Bears, Bills

  • Focus: Titans RB Tony Pollard, who gets the Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars in Weeks 15-17. The Titans spoke all offseason about Pollard and Tyjae Spears being interchangeable, but that simply hasn't been the case—the ex-Cowboy is truly the workhorse and should have every opportunity to end the season in style with three straight smash matchups. This is also a good reminder that Spears remains one of the better handcuff stashes out there (same with Trey Benson and to a lesser extent Cam Akers).

  • Best schedules: Raiders, Giants, Bears, Packers, Titans

  • Worst schedules: Jaguars, Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Rams

  • Focus: Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers, who will face the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints to close out the fantasy season. The reality that Aidan O'Connell (knee) reportedly avoided major injury definitely helps here, and accordingly Meyers should have every chance to stay hot. Consider: He's posted PPR WR20, WR16, WR48, WR7, WR25, and WR27 finishes since returning from injury; don't be surprised if more upside WR2 goodness is on the way for this potential sneaky league winner.

  • Best schedules: Titans, Browns, Texans, Vikings, Saints

  • Worst schedules: Rams, Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Colts

  • Focus: Browns TE David Njoku, who has a chance to end 2024 in style against the Chiefs, Bengals, and Dolphins. The TE5 since Jameis Winston took over in Week 8, Njoku is serving the "F*ck it" role for Winston when all else fails, leading to plenty of contested-catch opportunities. Fun fact: Only Ja'Marr Chase (12) and Demarcus Robinson (8, lol) have more end-zone targets than Njoku (7) since Winston took over. I'm comfortable firing up Njoku as THE TE1 in fantasy for this stretch run.

  • Best schedules: Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, Raiders, Packers

  • Worst schedules: Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Jets, 49ers

  • Focus: Colts DST, who don't exactly have a layup this week in Mile High against the Broncos, but we're talking about two potential SMASH matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 against turnover-prone QBs Will Levis and Drew Lock

FL+

GET PREMIUM FANTASY FOOTBALL, DFS, AND SPORTS BETTING TOOLS WITH FANTASYLIFE+

Win your leagues. Win your bets. Get 12 months of fantasy football and sports betting coverage with FantasyLife+.