😟 Trouble in RB Paradise

Well, that escalated quickly…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Fantasy Life Discord Channel:

Monday was franchise tag day and another rather massive L for the RB position.

Each of Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley hoped to get a long-term deal done, but none wound up inking an extension with their respective employers.

Good news for Cowboys fans and fantasy faithful: Pollard already signed his franchise tag and is fully expected to work as the offense’s undisputed No. 1 RB in 2023.

Bad news for Raiders and Giants nation: Jacobs and Barkley have yet to sign their tags, meaning they can skip training camp without getting fined since they are not under contract.

This effectively leaves Jacobs and Barkley with two choices:

1. Accept the franchise tag and play football this season for $10.1 million.

2. Hold out for the entire season and make zero dollars.

It’s unfortunate that truly great RBs are having such a hard time getting paid these days; just realize 2018 Le’Veon Bell is literally the only back to receive the franchise tag and decline to play that season.

Assuming Jacobs and Barkley report to the Raiders and Giants before Week 1: They should work as their usual workhorse selves in 2023.

Three of the only four RBs to actually play under the franchise tag without a long-term deal wound up getting force-fed the football (via Over The Cap):

• 2005 Edgerrin James (404 touches)

• 2005 Shaun Alexander (385)

• 2009 Darren Sproles (138)

• 2017 Le'Veon Bell (406)

Jacobs racked up a league-high 393 touches in 2022 and looked good doing it. Only the Titans were more willing than the Raiders to give their lead RB 20- and 25-plus touches last year – this was arguably the single-most fantasy-friendly role in football last season.

The utter lack of additional offseason moves at the position makes it hard to believe Josh McDaniels and company have any intention other than force-feeding the reigning first-team All-Pro again in 2023.

Similarly, Barkley’s bounce-back 2022 campaign flashed the sort of explosive big-play ability that had been lacking during his injury-riddled 2020 and 2021 seasons. While Barkley’s efficiency numbers and pass-game production weren’t on the same level as the first two seasons of his career, the reigning PPR RB5 on both an overall and per-game basis is still firmly inside any discussion surrounding the game’s best fantasy — and real-life — options at the position.

Ultimately, Jacobs and Barkley were already enticing Round 2 and 3 options considering just how far the game’s top RBs are falling down fantasy draft boards this season – now they might just shape up as (wait for it) league-winning caliber assets should their ADP fall even further into Round 4 alongside guys like Najee Harris and Travis Etienne.

There’s at least some level of risk with either RB choosing to stick to their guns and not give in; just realize money talks, and neither Jacobs nor Barkley seems to have the sort of long-term leverage to leave $10.1 million on the table.

Overall fantasy football summary and what to do moving forward: Buy the dip.

The NFL season is quickly approaching and the futures betting market is heating up. To keep us in the loop, Matt McCuen has already broken down betting angles for every division, starting with the star-studded NFC East…

The NFC East has been one of the most competitive divisions in football over the last decade. And we should expect nothing different this year as three of the four teams in the East made the playoffs a season ago.

With most of the division’s teams looking like solid bets to make the playoffs, let’s dig into each squad to find the right bets to make for the ‘23 season.

🦅 Philadelphia Eagles

• -110 to win NFC East (BetMGM)

• Key Additions:

  • D’Andre Swift (RB)

  • Rashaad Penny (RB)

  • Marcus Mariota (QB)

• Key Departures:

  • Miles Sanders (RB)

  • Zach Pascal (WR)

It should be no surprise that the Eagles enter the season as the favorites in the NFC East. Philadelphia was the best regular season team a season ago, and they will attempt to defend their NFC Championship.

The Eagles knew that they would have some turnover on their roster this offseason with multiple contracts expiring. However, GM Howie Roseman may have had the best offseason of any GM as he was able to retain both of the Eagles' starting cornerbacks and multiple starters on the defensive line.

As if that was not enough, Philadelphia landed one of the draft’s best prospects in the form of Jalen Carter, who fell in the first round due to off-field issues, though most are looking at how the offense will perform after a strong Super Bowl run last year.

Jalen Hurts will attempt to continue his success after inking one of the largest contracts in NFL history, as he’ll get back a similar roster on the offensive side of the football with a few new faces.

On top of this, new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson will have an opportunity to work with some special talent to see how the Eagles stack up this year.

💰 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East (-110, BetMGM)

The Eagles will look to repeat and win back-to-back NFC East championships for the first time since 2003-2004. Somehow, the division hasn’t had a repeat champion ever since.

Surprisingly, they somehow have a better roster entering the 2023 season than the one they had last year. Hurts has another year in the NFL under his belt and should be in the MVP conversation all year long for the second-consecutive season.

On top of this, Philly was able to retain multiple key players on defense, most notably Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

This was the number two defense in football a season ago and if they can perform at a similar level this year, this will be an extremely difficult team to beat.

You can tail the Eagles future on BetMGM, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!

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😥 Saquon had a five-word response to today’s events. Max Holloway would be proud.

👑 NFL RBs were quick to come to their position’s defense. PREACH KING HENRY.

😯 Just how close was Josh Jacobs to signing an extension? Pretty close, man.

🤬 The Giants and Saquon Barkley couldn’t quite get things done. They were only apart by HOW much?!

🔥 Alternate helmets are the new cool uniform trend on the block. These are hot.

📈 These ADPs are WAY too low. Target these players (we are too)!

👀 Update surrounding the sale of the Washington Commanders. Things are starting to move quickly.

💯 Madden WR ratings are LIVE. Guess who is the only 99 overall.

✈️ Hard Knocks is BACK on August 8. This should be fun.

It’s pretty difficult to feel overly confident about the players going in the final round, considering just how barren the pickings are at that point – but that doesn’t mean we can’t try to find some value outside of the top-200 picks.

What follows are Ian’s favorite last-round darts he’s made a habit of throwing after completing 100-plus drafts over at Underdog Fantasy. As always: It’s a great day to be great.

💪 Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

• ADP: QB32, pick 213.8

In case you haven’t been watching much Titans football over the past four seasons: Tanne is good.

• EPA per dropback: +0.12 (No. 9 among 39 qualified QB since 2019)

• Passer rating: 100.5 (No. 6)

• Yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 4)

• Adjusted yards per attempt: 8.09 (No. 6)

• Completion rate: 66.9% (No. 10)

• TD/INT ratio: 2.7 (No. 10)

This passing efficiency and ability to rack up rushing scores (20 since 2019 – more than Lamar Jackson!) has helped Tannehill post QB9, QB9, QB14 and QB22 finishes in fantasy points per game during the span. The latter number did occur in 2022, although the veteran deserves some slack for playing with one of the league’s worst WR rooms and dealing with ankle injuries throughout the season.

That specific issue received a recent boost with the signing of former Texans and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, although there’s newfound uncertainty surrounding Tannehill’s stranglehold on the starting job after the team used the 33rd overall pick on Kentucky QB Will Levis.

And yet:

• Reports indicate incumbent backup QB Malik Willis has outperformed Levis in offseason practices.

• Head coach Mike Vrabel said in March “Of course” we expect Tannehill to be our QB in 2023 and added that he’s the first man on the depth chart after the draft.

• Only Patrick Mahomes ($39.6 million) has a higher 2023 cap hit than Tannehill ($36.6 million).

Maybe things get dicey if Tannehill and company simply fall apart and fall out of playoff contention sooner rather than later, but this is a team that managed to go to overtime in Arrowhead with Willis under center and held a late fourth-quarter lead in a must-win Week 18 against the Jaguars with Joshua Dobbs under center.

Does Mike Vrabel really seem like the kind of coach happy to phone in the season and tank? I sure don’t think so – Tannehill is pretty much the only QB available outside of the top-170 picks who has any sort of track record of high-end fantasy success.

Don’t be afraid to add him as your QB2 or QB3, especially on squads that already managed to add Hopkins, WR Treylon Burks and/or TE Chigoziem Okonkwo.

🎯 Ravens TE Isaiah Likely

• ADP: TE27, pick 203.6

The only worthwhile TE handcuff in all of fantasy football, Likely showed what he is capable of achieving in his only three games with a snap rate north of 50%:

• Week 8: 6 receptions-77 yards-1 TD (7 targets), PPR TE2

• Week 9: 1-24-1 (5), TE9

• Week 18: 8-103-0 (13), TE3

Of course, the presence of Mark Andrews limited Likely’s weekly role and made him a non-viable fantasy asset for the rest of the season.

Fun fact: It’s impossible for players to score fantasy points if they aren’t on the field.

Still, Likely profiles as one of, if not the only, player available outside of the top-200 picks certifiably one injury away from working as a potential weekly top-six option at their position. Drafting players purely because of contingency value isn’t ideal, but it’s more okay when using literally the last pick of your entire draft.

The plethora of WR additions in this offense has many envisioning new offensive coordinator Todd Monken centering his passing game around them, although the Georgia Bulldogs did make a habit of featuring both Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington under his tutelage.

Look – you aren’t drafting Likely to be your No. 1 TE anyway, so why not sign up for a lottery ticket?

Guys like Jake Ferguson, Michael Mayer, Jelani Woods and Noah Fant are each probably multiple injuries away from even beginning to sniff the position’s top-12 options – let alone from being someone who needs to be in your starting lineup like Likely.