🌎 A Top QB Is Missing In Action

Move aside Carmen Sandiego…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Mike’s Hard Lemonade:

Where in the world is Aaron Rodgers?

The same dude who spent all of last season telling us that he was just "a week or two" away from returning to the field after his Achilles surgery is now missing in action.

Rodgers had an "unexcused absence" from Jets’ minicamp on Monday, which caused quite the uproar in NFL media circles. 

But then yesterday, Coach Robert Saleh said that he and Aaron are on "the exact same page."

Yes, clearly.

Rodgers wanting to play by his own rules is hardly a surprise, but it's the mystery surrounding his whereabouts that makes this a particularly intriguing subplot to the 2024 offseason.

If Rodgers had a good excuse—like his brother getting married or something—he would have shared it.

Instead, we are forced to speculate on what bullshit he's up to. And by "forced," I mean "blessed with the opportunity."

A few ideas:

• A South American ayahuasca retreat with RFK Jr. is the low-hanging fruit here. "Bro, just give me another crack at VP."

• Recruiting Randall Cobb back to the NFL. "Bro, let's party like it's 2014. I miss you."

• Personally delivering a gigantic fruit basket to Jimmy Kimmel as a peace offering. "Bro, I was just joking."

• On a cruise with Pat McAfee. "Bro." "Bro." "Broooooo."

If you have tips on Rodgers' whereabouts, please contact me post haste.

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💰 ICYMI: We have your keys to winning Best Ball Mania. A special guest weighs in.

👀 The Vikings announce their starting QB heading into camp. How long will it last?

😬 A key rookie RB might not be ready for camp. I’m not worried (yet).

📈 Buzz building in Tampa Bay on a rookie WR. Put him in the queue.

😴 10 sleepers for your Underdog drafts. Fun names.

🍻 Tom Brady’s celebration night. A fist bump with Robert Kraft.

🤢 The QBs you don’t want to see if your team is losing. Oof.

The Falcons have one of the best running back rooms in the league. Today, Ian Hartitz breaks down the backfield, along with his prediction for their entire offense in 2024.

🔔 Running Back

• RB1: Bijan Robinson (RB3)

• RB2: Tyler Allgeier (RB48)

• RB3: Avery Williams

Robinson finished as the RB17 in PPR points per game as a rookie. This improves to RB14 status when accounting for the game where he handled just one touch while allegedly battling an illness. With 1,463 total yards, eight TDs, and countless viral skycam highlights: Robinson's rookie season was filled with plenty of success … unless you were holding him to top-10 overall fantasy expectations.

This is where the "problems" arise.

Robinson "only" handled 47.5% of the Falcons RB carries last season, as 2022 leading rusher Tyler Allgeier handled 204 touches on the year despite not being nearly as efficient as the team's shiny No. 7 overall pick.

The goal line usage also left quite a bit to be desired. Life inside the league's 26th-ranked scoring offense only produced eight RB carries inside the five-yard line in the first place, but it was admittingly maddening to see those carries distributed so evenly between Allgeier (4), Robinson (2), and even the GOAT Cordarrelle Patterson (2). Hell, TE Jonnu Smith even registered a goal-line rush attempt one time.

While fantasy managers always want their RBs to handle each and every touch, Smith's insistence on keeping multiple parties involved was especially annoying because of the reality that Robinson sure looked like one of the league's better talents at the position throughout the season:

Robinson among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2023:

• Yards per carry: 4.5 (No. 14)

• Yards over expected per carry: +0.39 (tied for No. 12)

• Yards after contact per carry: 3.1 (No. 14)

• % of carries with 2+ yards after contact: 71% (No. 4)

• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.24 (tied for No. 8)

• Explosive run rate: 14% (No. 8)

Luckily for Bijan truthers: His relative lack of usage looks to be nearing an end. Just listen to new OC, Zac Robinson:

“Bijan’s such a talented player. He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.”

And head coach Raheem Morris on his vision for Robinson:

"Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can, in as many ideal situations as you possibly can.”

Here's to hoping that Robinson's new look usage doesn't take too much off his plate as a receiver. After all, targets trump carries in full-PPR scoring, and a whopping 52% of Robinson's fantasy production came through the air last season – tied for the fourth-highest mark among the top-36 RBs in PPR points per game.

Ultimately, the name of the game in fantasy land is volume, and Robinson projects for more than just about anyone else at the position.

Most combined carries and targets in Fantasy Life Projections:

• Christian McCaffrey (324)

• Breece Hall (322)

• Bijan Robinson (305)

• Jonathan Taylor (305)

• Saquon Barkley (297)

✍️ Bottom Line

Robinson's elite mix of talent and volume makes him a locked-in top-three option at the position deserving of first-round treatment in one-QB fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes.

Allgeier is more of a pure handcuff play but an affordable one at his current RB48, pick 155.2 ADP. Still, I prefer guys like Ty Chandler, Ray Davis and Antonio Gibson in that range due to their similar handcuff upside and a heightened chance for standalone value.