Here is everything else you need to know before locking in for today’s action …

The Fantasy Life Thanksgiving prop sheet. Hammer the over on Turducken references, BTW. Broadcasters live for silly words. Here is one other one I’d add to the list …

Who will get the most revenge? We got two RBs squaring off against their former teams today: David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift. Considering the Lions have a 28.5 team total and the Bears like to use Roschon Johnson at the goal line, I have to go with DMont serving up the colder dish.

DFS Guide. Whether you are drafting teams on Underdog, building lineups on DraftKings, or slamming together pick ‘ems & props, I got you covered with a DFS strategy guide. Love that Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush one.

Freedman’s Favorites (Pie Edition). Cherry is a wild choice for Thanksgiving, but Freedman is a wild man, so this tracks. There’s more to him than just pie takes, though. He also has a comprehensive betting breakdown for Giants/Cowboys.

Ian’s Manifesto and 3 bold predictions. We are aligned on Rome Odunze. Today is the day.

Have a wonderful day. We’ll be back tomorrow for a quick pivot to the Black Friday game and Week 13 Main Slate.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Dwain’s Week 13 Rankings: Risers and Fallers

2. Watercooler: Rest-of-Season Rankings Updates
   

Matthew did it again ...

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Week 13 Rankings: Risers and Fallers

• by Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 13 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: as you read through my rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Risers

Nico Collins | WR | HOU

Collins' route participation jumped from 55% to 80% in his second game back, and we could see him closer to his pre-injury range of 90% this weekend. The fourth-year WR averaged 22.7 points per game over the first month in a full-time role and now has less target competition with Stefon Diggs out. The Jaguars defense has signed off on the fifth-largest fantasy boost to the WR position at 5.1 points per game.

Collins UPGRADES to WR1 overall.

Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings

After battling a rib injury for two games, Jones returned to a dominant role in Week 12.

• Utilization Score: 8.9

• Snaps: 78%

• Attempts: 81%

• Routes: 58%

• Targets: 12%

• Fantasy points: 22

The veteran has averaged 18.3 points in five games where he reached a 60% rush share or higher—a number I expect him to clear this weekend. The Vikings offer the seventh-highest team total (24.8) as four-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Jones UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status.

Fallers

James Conner | RB | Cardinals

Over the last three games, Trey Benson has eaten into Conner's rushing pie with attempt shares of 24%, 31%, and 31%. Over that span, Conner has handled only 48% of the team's totes. The veteran back has offset that loss with additional work on passing downs with Emari Demercado battling a should injury.

It is hard to say if either trend will last but my confidence in Conner's workload isn't as strong as it was a month ago. If Benson keeps those carries and Demercado regains passing-down work when healthy that would create a pesky three-way split.

This weekend would be a terrible time for Conner to give up any additional touches. The Vikings have held opposing RB units to 3.8 points below their average, making them the third-toughest matchup. Minnesota allows the fewest rushing yards per game (68) and opposing rushing attacks have collected only 9.3 points per game on the ground.

Conner DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.

Jameson Williams | WR | Lions

Williams has performed well since returning from his suspension, averaging 14.2 points per game. However, he still grades out in the boom-bust range with a 6.3 Utilization Score, which makes him a tougher start in difficult matchups.

The Bears allow only 23.7 points per game to pass catchers—the fifth-lowest mark—and the Lions have the offensive diversity to attack on the ground. Additionally, Sam LaPorta has an 18% target share over his last four games, which is new target competition (compared to early this season).

Over the last two weeks, Williams has upgraded to WR2 status in great matchups but he goes in the opposite direction this week.

Williams DOWNGRADES to the low-end WR3 tier.

RELATED CONTENT

• Rankings specific to the Thanksgiving Day slate.

• Looking ahead to the Black Friday game between the Chiefs and Raiders.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 Could Taysom Hill break fantasy football two games in a row? More risers and fallers in the rankings.

📊 Rest-of-Season rankings update. Waz has you covered.

😍 Love/Hate for Week 13. Matthew has the goods.

🚑️ Bummer news for J.K. Dobbins … but it could have been worse.

💓 Jordan Love has an incredible signature. So good.

✈️ Daniel Jones finds a new home. Dimes back in the playoffs?

🎯 Predicting every winner between Friday and Monday. Let’s do it.

⚔️ We got you covered today … projections for all three games.

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