🔎 Top Dalvin Cook potential landing spots

Let Dalvin cook?

In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

One of the biggest offseason storylines has been whether or not the Vikings will move on from longtime stud RB Dalvin Cook.

While the team is currently 24th in effective salary cap space with roughly $9.8 million available, pending contract extensions for WR Justin Jefferson and DE Danielle Hunter have made the idea of the Vikings saving $11 million against the cap with a post-June 1 trade a distinct possibility.

Senior NFL Reporter Albert Breer added some information Monday over at SI.com, noting the Vikings and Dolphins, “came very close to a trade that would’ve made Cook a Dolphin back in March.” However, that deal fell apart, and Breer notes that Miami’s desire for a big-play back was, “at least to some degree, addressed in the third round of the draft, with ultra-explosive Texas A&M back Devon Achane coming in.”

Over the weekend ESPN’s Adam Schefter quoted Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert, noting: “All that remains is for the Vikings to formalize (Dalvin) Cook's exit, a denouement that seems likely if not completely certain.”

The wait continues, but there’s certainly been enough smoke to doubt the idea that Cook will once again function as the Vikings’ lead back in 2023. The public has certainly taken notice, as both Cook and next-man-up Alexander Mattison have been two of the biggest movers in Underdog ADP over the last month.

Mattison would immediately surge into low-end RB2 territory at worst should Cook be released or traded, making his rise up the ranks plenty reasonable to chase.

The bigger question:

What would be the most fantasy-friendly landing spot for Cook if not in Minnesota?

The following three teams make a whole lot of sense based on both their current RB room and available cap space. Note that the latter variable is why relatively RB-needy teams like the Buccaneers, Rams, Broncos, and Bills aren’t included.

🐬 Miami Dolphins

Whoever winds up working as Mike McDaniel’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside simply by existing in the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense, although no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.

Ultimately, this Dolphins offense figures to continue to flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle before anyone else. That said, Cook would immediately profile as the lead early-down back at worst and would be tough to keep out of the position’s top-20 players on a week-to-week basis.

Projected 2023 fantasy rank: RB19

🤠 Dallas Cowboys

Only the Lions, Broncos, Panthers and Eagles have more available carries than the Cowboys in terms of offseason roster turnover. This is your reminder that Ezekiel Elliott (248) was somehow given more touches than Tony Pollard (232) in the year of our lord 2022.

Adding Cook to the Cowboys wouldn’t lead to a featured three-down role – Pollard received the franchise tag for a reason – but sliding into the same spot that helped Zeke produce the league’s third-most carries inside the five-yard line certainly wouldn’t be all that bad for fantasy business.

Projected 2023 fantasy rank: RB29

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The ADP landscape is already shifting in best ball contests. Today, Pete summarizes some of the major trends we are seeing on Underdog Fantasy and shares recommendations on how to capitalize on them in drafts.

Underdog Fantasy’s massive fantasy football contest with a $15,000,000 total prize pool, Best Ball Mania IV, has now been live for over a month.

In previous strategy pieces, we outlined how to attack the unique structure of the tournament, recommended players to target, and explained why you need to focus on Week 17 matchups if you want to take down the $3,000,000 top prize.

Today, we are going to analyze different ADP shifts we’ve seen in the contest since it opened and how you can take advantage of these trends in your future drafts.

💪 Underdog QB ADP (Early May vs. Early June)

When Underdog’s way-too-early contest dropped in February–yes, well before the combine, Free Agency, and the NFL Draft–I was stunned to see how high the elite QBs were going in drafts.

Initially, this early QB love carried over to BBMIV with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts all mainstays in the second round, but the market is starting to walk back some of the signal caller enthusiasm:

Why it’s happening: Recency bias slowly fading away.

After Elite QBs smashed in 2022, drafters initially decided to stop kicking the QB can down the road and lock up an elite option early in drafts because of their ability to separate from the rest of the position.

There are simply only a handful of QBs who can realistically clear a 35-point ceiling in a game and they are being drafted accordingly. But drafters have also been quick to realize that their teams suffer at other positions–mainly WR–when they make an early detour for QB. This ADP movement feels like an implicit acknowledgment of that dynamic.

How to play it:

It’s tough for drafters who select Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown in Round 1 to not click on their QBs in Round 2, but it’s time to start pushing it. Instead, see if you can sneak in an additional star player while waiting to complete the stack in Round 3.

For all of the movers, check Dwain’s tweet.

🏈 Underdog TE ADP (Early May vs. Early June)

Why it’s happening: Drafters are wisely either prioritizing Elite TEs and/or all of the cheap, punt options available at the end of drafts.

That has resulted in what I’m now going to call the TE Dead Zone in the middle rounds. There just isn’t much of a difference in talent from the Daltons of the world and the Dawson Knox’s (Kincaid’s teammate) and Trey McBride’s (another starting TE on a bad team) going much later in drafts.

How to play it: Make sure you aren’t reaching for any of the TEs going in the middle rounds.

You don’t need to remove this pocket of the draft from your player pool entirely, but you should be prioritizing ADP values and/or QB/TE stacks with these more dicey selections. If you have Justin Fields at QB, try to push it with Cole Kmet (who the room will often give you at a discount).

I don’t mind targeting a discounted Dalton Schultz either, especially if you need to set up a back door stacking option with CJ Stroud.

For all of the movers, check Dwain’s tweet.

You can start taking advantage of these ADP movers and double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up for Underdog Fantasy using promo code LIFE!

🎰 The NFL is investigating another NFL player for possible gambling violations. Feels like this won’t be the last time.

🔫 Baltimore signed another weapon for Lamar. More like a squirt gun tbh.

🥁 More reports on who will start under center for the 49ers in Week 1. The constant drumbeat of good news continues for this QB.

👀 This RB said “a lot of balls coming my way” in the passing game this season. He’s pretty cheap in fantasy land!

😲 Jerry Jones gave updates on potential roster additions. So you’re saying there’s a chance?

🏥 This stud QB is getting healthy and plans to work into OTA drills this week. People forget how banged up the man was last year.

💨 Giving Justin Herbert a legit deep threat sounds like a great idea. This rookie believes he is that guy, pal.

🤑 Surprisingly splashy free agent signing in Buffalo. The rich just got richer.

🏈 Everybody loves a pass-catching RB. This rookie is set up to make an immediate impact.

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Buccaneers, who sure look to be in a rebuilding year after losing a certain GOAT under center…

💨 WRs

• Chris Godwin (Ian’s WR30)

• Mike Evans (WR31)

• Russell Gage (WR99)

• Trey Palmer (WR128)

The idea that Godwin and Evans might be this year’s Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf comes down to two simple qualifiers:

1. Godwin and Evans, just like Lockett and Metcalf, have proven capable of putting up big-time fantasy numbers over the years.

2. A change at QB has essentially single-handedly dropped their ADPs into WR3 territory, whereas they would likely be consensus top-24 options with continuity under center.

Adding fuel to the fire: New Buccaneers OC Dave Canales served as Geno Smith’s QB coach last season.

Yes, Baker Mayfield has spent the better part of the last two seasons being an objectively bad QB.

Also, yes, Jarvis Landry posted WR25 and WR21 production in PPR points per game in 2018 and 2019 with Mayfield as his starting QB. Even Odell Beckham Jr. posted WR33 and WR38 numbers in 2019 and 2020.

Things weren’t as pretty over the last two seasons, but it’s not like Mayfield has zero history of helping enable some fantasy-viable receivers.

Both Evans (77-1,124-6) and Godwin (104-1,023-3) managed to post top-15 production in PPR points per game despite last season’s turmoil. Fantasy managers certainly weren’t thrilled that Evans took until Week 17 (10-207-3) to really boom, but I’m not a fan of “take away a player’s good games and look they were actually bad” analysis.

These dudes have posted top-16 PPR production on a per-game basis in four consecutive seasons. Relative to the rest of the league, you probably don’t need to take off both pairs of shoes in order to count the number of more productive WRs in recent history.

I’m giving Godwin the slight lean over Evans because the dreaded age cliff is here for the latter receiver. The former receiver also figures to look a bit more explosive in 2023, an extra year removed from his 2021 season-ending ACL injury.

Enhanced efficiency on top of last season’s volume-hog, PPR-friendly workload. Is that something you might be interested in?

Ultimately, Evans and Godwin are going in a perfectly acceptable range of drafts given their uncertain (AKA likely shitty) offensive environment. I haven’t made a habit of drafting either over similar-ADP guys like Jordan Addison and Brandon Aiyuk, but their availability in round six of best-ball drafts speaks to the depth at the position this year. My favorite rosters have typically included four to five WRs by the time round eight rolls around; both Bucs pass-catchers are in play at their drastically reduced costs.

Meanwhile, Gage was reduced to a part-time player down the stretch in 2022 and never seemed to rediscover his Atlanta-level comfort in this offense. He’s an injury away from being someone on the waiver wire who you still don’t feel good about picking up.

Unless … maybe Gage is the real Buccaneers QB1?! I’m just kidding.

Then again, maybe I’m not.

For more, listen to Ian Hartitiz and Dwain McFarland break down their thoughts on the biggest QB competition in the NFL 😅