✍️ TNF Notes and HUGE Week 4 Questions

Why be a king, when you can be a (Sun) God…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:

The Lions made light work of the Packers on Thursday night, coasting to a 34 to 20 victory after seizing a 27 to 3 halftime lead.

Shoutout to Matthew Berry’s Ride-or-Die Amon-Ra St. Brown (5-56-1) on another stellar performance, while RB David Montgomery (141 yards, 3 TDs) returned from his one-week absence in style — much to the chagrin of Jahmyr Gibbs (51-scoreless yards) managers, of course.

🦁 This is David Montgomery’s backfield

Not to suggest the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick is a complete afterthought, but this is legit bell-cow usage for the ex-Bears RB right here.

• Snaps: Montgomery (53), Gibbs (28)

• Routes: Montgomery (16), Gibbs (14)

• Carries: Montgomery (32), Gibbs (8)

• Targets: Montgomery (2), Gibbs (5)

Gibbs is usually the preferred party in obvious pass-first situations. But those reps haven’t been all that copious on a Lions team that hasn’t trailed by more than seven points all season long.

Credit to Montgomery for cashing in on his chances near the goal line — and you can’t blame the Lions when they continue to deploy one of the game’s highest-scoring offenses — but Gibbs’ early-season usage certainly lags behind what we’ve seen from most rookie first-round RBs drafted within the last decade.

The glass-half-full scenario revolves around Gibbs following in Christian McCaffrey’s footsteps and utilizing high-end receiving usage to post RB2-level production down the stretch; just realize CMC managers still found a way to curse Jonathan Stewart after each and every one of his 206 touches during that 2017 season.

🧀 The Return of Christian Watson

The Packers’ talented second-year receiver made his season debut on Thursday night after missing the first three weeks of the year with a hamstring injury.

Pregame reports indicated Watson could play limited snaps — and that would end up being the case, as his 20 routes lagged behind each of Romeo Doubs (37), Jayden Reed (29) and even Dontayvion Wicks (24). Shoutout to Doubs on his sterling 9-95-0 receiving line, and Reed on hauling in a b-e-a-utiful 44-yard reception with literally no time remaining on the clock at the end of the third quarter.

Still, Watson briefly reminded everyone what the hype is all about, looking explosive on a 24-yard catch-and-run before hauling in an uncovered one-yard TD.

This was hardly Jordan Love’s finest hour; don’t be surprised if the extra rest does Watson and company some good and we see a REAL coming out party two Monday nights from now against the Raiders.

Thursday night football is a helluva drug. That said: We (fantasy managers) still have plenty of work to do. We’re on to the remaining 15 games left in Week 4.

👀 Want to Watch What Miami Does Next??

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1:00 pm ET Kick-Off

• Denver at Chicago

• Miami at Buffalo

• Baltimore at Cleveland

• Pittsburgh at Houston

4:05 pm ET Kick-Off

• Las Vegas at LA Chargers

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Week 3 was great and all, but you know what has the potential to be even cooler? Week 4, baby.

Ian Hartitz’s goal: Break down Week 4 by asking – and attempting to answer – the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.

😞 How low should expectations be for this Desmond Ridder-led passing game?

Pretty, pretty, pretty low. 27th in adjusted completion rate (71.1%) and 25th in yards per attempt (25) among 34 qualified QBs: Ridder has been objectively bad from an efficiency standpoint in an offense that isn’t exactly asking him to do all that much in the first place.

This is not a good list to be on! The lowest completion percentage over expected (CPOE) this season:

• Kenny Pickett (-6.1%)

• Desmond Ridder (-6.3%)

• Justin Fields (-6.8%)

• Zach Wilson (-7.2%)

• Jordan Love (-8.2%)

• Anthony Richardson (-8.4%)

• Joe Burrow (-8.9%)

The lack of rushing upside for a signal-caller possessing objectively elite athleticism has been particularly disappointing in fantasy football land. Overall, Ridder has also taken 12 sacks (tied for the fourth-most) this season, and he’s accounted for just five combined passing and rushing TDs in seven career starts.

Obviously, Ridder himself isn’t a realistic fantasy option outside of two-QB/superflex formats – and even then, you aren’t exactly pumped about starting him.

The sad part is neither Kyle Pitts nor Drake London warrant no-doubt starting treatment either inside of the league’s 32nd-ranked offense in pass-rate over expected.

Pitts and London will probably experience some boom games at some point, thanks to the reality that they are indeed good at football, but posting big-time numbers in the absence of big-time volume and anything close to big-time play under center is wishful thinking at this point.

I mean, c’mon man.

💨 Can Marvin Mims get a full-time role already?

The rookie’s per-route efficiency has been absolutely ridiculous through three weeks of action (min. 25 routes):

• PFF receiving grade: 85.7 (No. 7)

• Yards per route run: 7.22 (No. 1)

• Yards per reception: 27.9 (No. 4)

• Yards after the catch per reception: 7.3 (No. 8)

Throw in constant kick return goodness, and Mims has accounted for a ridiculous eight of the team’s 10-longest plays this season on his 12 touches (h/t Scott Barrett).

So: Can Mims be trusted in Fantasy Land already?

Sadly: No, not until HC Sean Payton, you know, plays Mims ahead of Week 2 hail mary hero Brandon Johnson. Mims is a recommended bench stash thanks to his absurdly good efficiency metrics, but in the year 2023, it’s impossible to score fantasy points without being on the field first (thanks, Biden).

🏈 Will James Cook ever score a TD?

Cook’s current 17-game pace has him racking up 306 touches for 1,893 total yards … and zero TDs.

Overall, Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have combined for six carries and three TDs inside the five-yard line, while Cook failed to punch in his lone chance.

Beggars can’t be choosers in fantasy land – Cook has earned weekly upside RB2 treatment as an explosive pass-catching back inside this ever-potent Bills offense. Still, the lack of goal-line opportunities will prevent him from ascending into the sort of no-doubt RB1 territory that his usage otherwise suggests.

Continue to fire up Cook as a top-15 option at the position in fantasy formats of most shapes and sizes; here’s to hoping he eventually turns a chunk gain into six points, because lord knows Dalvin’s little brother won’t be getting many chances at finding paydirt from inside the five-yard line.

#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 4 NFL slate!

You like betting on football, we like betting on football: Everyone likes betting on football. Especially Geoff, who has some Week 4 best bets to get off of his chest.

👀 Week 4 Spread: Saints vs. Buccaneers -3.0 (-115, BetMGM)

The Buccaneers got exposed in a harsh manner last Monday and now have to travel west on a short week to face a division rival. They’ll almost certainly be without at least one starting cornerback in Jamel Dean, who hasn’t practiced as of Thursday, while their other starting corner, Carlton Davis, sat out last week and hasn’t practiced in full yet, as of Thursday.

Davis and Saints WR Michael Thomas have a history as well.

With Thomas back in form, this could be a troubling matchup for the Buccaneers if Davis is functioning at less than 100%.

The Saints may be without their starting quarterback, but the dropoff from Derek Carr (shoulder, questionable) to Jameis Winston isn’t necessarily a severe one. Winston and Carr were nearly the same in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) on a per-game basis last year – and Winston did move the ball into scoring position against the Packers for a potential game-winning field goal (that was promptly missed).

The three-point spread seems to suggest these teams are relatively even, but coming off a blowout loss, and with both of their starting corners ailing, it’s hard to see that angle from a Buccaneers perspective.

While neither of these coaches has been kind to bettors, I like the idea of going against Todd Bowles more in this spot. For his career as a head coach, Bowles’ teams have been terrible as underdogs, posting a 19-28-3 ATS when getting points (per Action Network).

The Buccaneers are also just 3-7 straight up against New Orleans and 2-8 ATS over their last 10 meetings between each other. A quick bounce-back for the Saints this week seems likely.

😅 Props: Tutu Atwell over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Atwell comes into the week averaging 14.3 yards per catch, with a 13.0 aDOT and a 33% total air yards share on the season. Last week he posted a 28% team target share and a 37% air yards share against the Bengals, both marks which led the team.

Despite the increased usage and great downfield targeting, Atwell’s receiving O/U’s for Week 4 are still 20-22 yards lower than teammate Puka Nacua’s – making him look like the far more undervalued of the two players in the prop market right now.

Until Cooper Kupp comes back, the likelihood is that both Atwell and Nucua are going to continue to produce, but right now, the marketplace is putting a way higher premium on Nucua.

To put a bow on this, the Rams will also face off against a Colts team that has an awfully thin secondary, ranking 22nd in yards per attempt allowed on the season, all while allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing WRs.

Atwell seems so undervalued this week (he’s projected for 5 receptions and 66.4 yards on Fantasy Life) that looking at his alternate lines at 75+ and 100+ yards also makes sense.

Both of these teams are top-10 units in plays per game, and if the game turns into a back-and-forth shootout: Atwell could certainly put in another 100-plus yard day, as he did against another weak secondary in Seattle in Week 1.

🙏 Brutal news for the Packers’ offensive line. Get better soon, man.

🔑 Fantasy nuggets that you need to know. Tips from an all-star cast.

⚡ Things are trending up for this electric dual-threat QB. Fantasy managers, rejoice.

📈 Calvin Ridley’s dominant Week 1 feels like a distant memory. Why he’s primed to bounce back (and 3 other players)

❓ Could this be THE WEEK for Justin Fields? No, seriously, could it?

💰 Pivoting to one of the best QBs in the NFL sounds good to me. DFS picks & plays for the main slate!

🔥 Tank Dell utilization propaganda? Tank Dell utilization propaganda

🧑‍💻 Did you really lose money in fantasy football if you had fun? Boy math rules.

🙌 Big week for Texans legend JJ Watt. Respect.

🏥 The 49ers could be without one of their top playmakers this Sunday. C’mon, injury Gods.

Every Friday, Fantasy Life will highlight our matchup of the week, presented by Paramount+. This week’s pick features a divisional rivalry between a pair of AFC contenders and quite possibly the top two most-lethal offenses in the entire NFL. Chris is here to help you get that popcorn ready…

I know this is just a game preview, but I wonder how many DFS rosters will revolve around this game.

They combined for 107 points last week. The Dolphins rank first in EPA per play, and the Bills are nipping at their heels (fins?) at third. And both offenses are succeeding in the ways we want for fantasy.

After a shaky season opener, Josh Allen is back in the top 10 after dicing up the Commanders in Week 3. The Bills are eighth in pass rate over expectation (PROE), Allen is second in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Everything looks as expected.

On the flip side, Miami looks like they’re going to the Super Bowl. If I could pinpoint any change in Tua Tagovailoa’s game from last year to now, it’s swagger: The man has style — and his demeanor has filtered down to the rest of the team.

It’s not much of a surprise the Bills are favored by slightly less than a field goal (-2.5) at home. Regardless, let’s dive into the Dolphins’ offense (get it? Dive? Because they’re Dolphins.) and see who all we can trust in our rosters.

🐬 Miami Dolphins Week 4 Outlook

OK, start everyone from Miami.

Wait, sorry. I should clarify.

Tua has the lowest pressure rate of any QB through three weeks. As a result, he simultaneously has the fastest average time to throw (2.24 seconds) and the fourth-highest passing aDOT (9.6 yards). But it’s not like the entire passing game relies on explosive plays.

On throws of 10 air yards or less, Tua is averaging 0.54 EPA per dropback. For reference, Patrick Mahomes’ best single-season mark across all throws was 0.33. But Mahomes didn’t have the same juice Tua currently has at his disposal.

Well, Mahomes did have Tyreek Hill. The vet speedster accounts for 34.7% of the team’s targets. He’s everywhere. Hill has generated more first downs (21) than DeVonta Smith’s earned targets (20). And after solid outings from other WR1s (Garrett Wilson 5-34-1, Davante Adams 8-84-1, Terry McLaurin 6-41-0), Hill will garner most of the attention from the Bills’ secondary. However, Hill isn’t the only WR that can threaten a defense for a big gain.

Jaylen Waddle has run the fewest routes from the interior of the primary receivers in Miami. Plus, with his 4.4-40 speed, it’s not shocking to see him with more yards per target (14.2) than Hill (14.1) when thrown to along the perimeter. Seeing Waddle regain his previous share of the offense would be ideal. However, given his downfield usage, it’ll only take a few plays for him to be a fantasy hit in Week 4. But even if he pulls defenders with him, that leaves the short area of the field open for attack from Miami’s backfield.

Buffalo’s defensive front is yet to give up a rushing score, but they’re no stranger to an explosive play or two. Breece Hall got loose for an 83-yard scamper, and Brian Robinson broke free for a 23-yarder on Sunday. It’d be a shame if the Dolphins had runners with speed.

Oh, wait. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert rank in the position’s top 20 for explosive rushing rate.

So, yeah, start all your Dolphins.