🏈 TNF: The Bet You DON'T Want to Make

It’s never too late to bet against a team you hate in the win totals market…

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In the Week 2 Thursday Betting Life newsletter, I talked about power ratings in general and highlighted the market-based ratings of Mike Beuoy at Inpredictable and Ben Baldwin on social media.

(The Cowboys are still No. 1, by the way. Ridiculous.)

With these ratings, we have a strong sense of how the market values all the NFL teams right now relative to each other.

If we notice a market valuation that we strongly disagree with, there are two main ways we can look to exploit it.

• The weekly spread market

• The continually updated futures markets

One futures market that has my eye right now is NFL win totals.

🔧 Adjusted NFL Win Totals

Years ago, sportsbooks used to set win totals in the offseason, and then once the season kicked off, that market was taken off the board.

Now, all the sportsbooks leave up win totals throughout the regular season and adjust them regularly based on win/loss records and market perception.

And that provides us with an opportunity to attack some new win totals that might be too high or low based on the market’s reaction to how teams have looked in just a couple of games of action.

Each week, I update my power ratings and model to project out the remaining games, so — like the sportsbooks — I have new win totals for all 32 teams.

Based on my season-long projections, these three bets stand out to me right now in the win total market.

📉 49ers Under 12.5 Wins (-105, Caesars)

This number was 10.5 in the offseason at some sportsbooks, and while the 49ers have looked good to open the year (2-0, +30 point differential), I don’t think they’ve done enough to justify this big of a move up.

They still have two divisional matchups left with the Seahawks, and they have losable games coming up against the Cowboys, Browns, Vikings, Bengals, Jaguars, and Eagles.

And at the end of the year, they might be in a position where it makes sense to rest players in Week 18.

I know they won 13 games last year and might be better this year — but 12.5 is such a high number that it’s hard for any team aside from the Chiefs to hit that mark in consecutive seasons.

Even with “only” 12 wins this year, the 49ers could be a Super Bowl contender.

Projection: 11.1

Side note: If you like the 49ers to win Thursday Night Football at home against the Giants, then you might want to wait to bet this until after that game.

✈️ Jets Under 7.5 Wins (-130, DraftKings)

I don’t think the market has adjusted enough to compensate for the radical difference between QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR) and backup Zach Wilson, who has a league-high four INTs and league-low 3.5 AY/A.

Even with 23 starts on his record, Wilson is probably the league’s worst starting QB — and that’s comparing him to a handful of young guys with not even five NFL games played.

The Jets have an elite defense, but this is an offense-driven league.

Projection: 6.5

🐏 Rams Over 7.5 Wins (+115, DraftKings)

On the Tuesday Betting Life show with Fabian Sommer, we talked about how the Rams have outperformed all reasonable expectations most people had for them entering the season.

At their best, I thought they could be a league-average team with HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and DT Aaron Donald. And I think we’re seeing that right now.

Even without Kupp, they’ve been remarkably solid on offense thanks to the contributions of WRs Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell and RB Kyren Williams, ranking No. 10 in EPA (per RBs Don’t Matter).

And with all their young players, the defense has been respectably subpar (vs. atrociously abominable), ranking No. 24 in EPA.

You put all that together, and they’re a team that could compete for a playoff spot with Kupp tentatively slated to return in Week 5. The Rams have inherent injury risk given their top-heavy stars/scrubs roster construction, but if they stay healthy, I think they offer great value at 7.5 wins.

Projection: 8.4

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Introductions are for people who have time. But you and I (Matthew Freedman, of course) -- degenerate sports bettors who pretend to be busy -- we don’t have time. So no introduction, let’s get to the best bets of Week 3.

As a reminder, this is what you should expect from this article each week.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).

2. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).

3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).

4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).

5. The five games I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).

✍️ Cardinals +12.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, BetMGM)

This is another disgusting position. I actually recommend not even watching this game. And it also might be wise to wait on this bet until closer to kickoff, because I can imagine the number moving even more toward the Cowboys, who have scored more points (70) and allowed fewer points (10) than any other team in the league.

But the Cardinals have been feisty and competitive this year. They lost in Weeks 1-2 yet still covered both games despite entering the season as the presumed worst team in the league. With RB James Conner, I expect the Cardinals to attack a Cowboys run defense that has limited big plays (No. 1 in rush EPA) but consistently allowed positive plays (No. 23 in rush SR).

With a run-heavy attack, the Cardinals could slow the game down just enough to get the cover.

As I mentioned in the Monday Betting Life newsletter, 0-2 underdogs are 59-42-2 ATS (13.0% ROI, per Action Network) over the past 20 years.

• Personal Projection: +7.8

• Official Projection: +9.6

• Cutoff: +10.5

✍️ Steelers +3 at Raiders (-115, DraftKings)

The Steelers have been terrible on offense (No. 32 in total DVOA, per FTN). QB Kenny Pickett is No. 32 in QBR (per ESPN). OC Matt Canada’s system has been unwatchable through two weeks.

But the offense has also had tough matchups against the 49ers and Browns. That’s not the case this week: The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive EPA, SR and DVOA. The Steelers have a chance to get going in this spot, and their defense is good enough to keep them in the game, especially against a Raiders offense that might be without WRs Davante Adams (concussion) and Jakobi Meyers (concussion).

Finally, there’s a massive difference between Steelers HC Mike Tomlin (No. 3 in our Fantasy Life unit rankings) and Raiders HC Josh McDaniels (No. 26). Under Tomlin, the Steelers as underdogs are 54-31-4 ATS (23.5% ROI). They almost always keep games close.

• Personal Projection: -3

• Official Projection: -0.3

• Cutoff: Pick’Em

👀 Week 3 Games That Have My Attention

🐎 Colts +8 at Ravens

I don’t think the injury status of Colts QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) matters all that much to the spread, but this line could move if we see any practice report progress from Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley (knee), C Tyler Linderbaum (ankle) and CB Marlon Humphrey (foot).

Check out my Week 3 injury report for more information on the guys I’m monitoring.

🐶 Browns -3 vs. Titans

This line has moved from -4.5 to -3 — but I lean toward the Browns, who have been great on defense this year (No. 1 in SR, No. 2 in EPA).

If this line happens to move below -3, I might act.

🐴 Broncos +6.5 at Dolphins

My projections show theoretical value on the Broncos: They are 0-2 but have just a -3 point differential. But they’ve had an easy schedule, and I’m conservative in adjusting my priors early in the season, which means that I fear I’m projecting their defense to be a better unit than it actually is (No. 30 in EPA and DVOA).

🚀 Teamwork makes the making money dream work! How to level up the sports betting profits.

😢 If you’re a Jets fan, don’t you almost hope that Zach Wilson becomes the next Sam Darnold? The saddest graph I’ve ever seen.

📈 True sports bettors know the difference between 10.1% and 11.9% is MASSIVE: More teams should try two-point conversions when down seven points.

📺 Sides, Totals, Props, and more for Week 3. Freedman calls in the experts for their takes.

🤯 That which makes you weird might also make you wildly successful? The Falcons are hard to game plan for. 

🦸 Not every longshot parlay is a degenerate bet. An intelligent, risk-taking hero who won big.

🤝 When the right hand hates the left hand. ESPN calls out…themselves?

🤷‍♂️ There’s a non-zero chance that both teams got worse with this trade. On the plus side, the world might not even be around whenever they swap draft picks.

🐎 The Broncos and Lions — they’re not our friends. They killed 14.6% of Week 2 survivor entries. 

😯 What a surprise, Freedman is taking an under! Find out which player he’s fading on Thursday Night Football!

Week 3 kicks off TONIGHT with an intriguing matchup between the Giants and the 49ers. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

Who’s ready for some more football?

After two games on Monday, the NFL is back in swing with the start of Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. This week, the Giants will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.

These two teams have had wildly different starts to the season. The 49ers are 2-0, and they’ve looked like an absolute juggernaut at times. They completely embarrassed the Steelers in Week 1, and they would’ve covered the spread in Week 2 if not for an unnecessary late field goal vs. the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Giants apparently didn’t realize that the season started in Week 1. They were outscored 60-0 through their first six quarters before ultimately storming back for a comeback win vs. the Cardinals. Still, the fact that the Giants struggled so much with a team expected to be the worst in football is a major cause for concern.

Let’s dive into all the betting angles for Thursday Night Football.

🍎 New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -10.5 (-110; BetMGM)

• Total: 44

• Moneylines: Giants +425/49ers -600

The 2023 Giants were always bound for some regression this season. They vastly outperformed most of their expected metrics in 2022. They were 24th in yardage differential and had a negative point differential.

Brian Daboll received a lot of the credit for what he did, taking home the Coach of the Year award in his first season. Now, he’s going to have to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.

Unfortunately, things don’t figure to get any better for the Giants in Week 3. Not only are they facing one of the best teams in football, but they’re also going to be without their best offensive player. Saquon Barkley suffered an injury in Week 2, and while he avoided disaster, he’s been ruled out for Thursday’s game.

Running backs don’t matter nearly as much towards the spread as other positions, but Barkley isn’t your typical running back. He’s capable of producing on the ground and in the passing game, and he was responsible for a big chunk of the team’s yards last season.

That could spell disaster vs. the 49ers. Their defense completely handcuffed the Steelers in Week 1, limiting them to 239 yards of total offense. They weren’t as dominant vs. the Rams, but the Giants don’t have Matthew Stafford playing quarterback.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers’ offense remains the picture of efficiency. Brock Purdy is still undefeated as a starting quarterback in games where he doesn’t get injured, and Christian McCaffrey is generating some MVP buzz. The team is absolutely loaded, so all Purdy has to do is get the ball in the hands of his playmakers.

Unsurprisingly, the public loves the 49ers. They’ve received over 80% of the spread bets in this spot (per the Action Network), even though this line has entered double figures. The 49ers were favored by just six on the look-ahead line, but that’s not enough to dissuade most bettors.

However, there has been some sharp activity on the Giants. That doesn’t surprise me.

Daboll was outstanding at covering the spread as an underdog last season. The Giants were 11-3 ATS when getting points (including the playoffs), so they routinely outperformed expectations.

The Giants also enter Week 3 at 0-2 against the spread, and those teams tend to become undervalued. Teams that have failed to cover in the first two weeks are 77-58-0 against the spread in Week 3 dating back to 2005. When facing a team with a 2-0 record, they’re a sparkling 25-15.

It feels scary to fade a team like the 49ers, especially with how shaky the Giants have looked to start the year. That said, I think they’re clearly the right side in this matchup.