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Time Is A Flat Circle
In the way back machine
PRESENTED BY
I’ve been writing this newsletter for a long time. And I was writing it two years ago when the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in the “Big Game” (I can never remember if I still can say that or not) for the first time. And let me tell ya, not much has changed since then. Check out the spread and the total from Super Bowl LVII that I shared on Jan. 30, 2023: |
The total—49.5—is literally the same as it was two years ago (our resident betting sharp Matt LaMarca likes the over, btw).
The only difference is the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites this time around as opposed to 2.5-point dogs.
In that same newsletter post, I asked if the Chiefs could win without any viable WRs.
Well, two years later the same question is relevant after Patrick Mahomes leaned on JuJu Smith-Schuster as his second-leading WR in the AFC Championship.
And for the Eagles, I asked if their easy gauntlet to the Super Bowl (Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson—remember Brock Purdy got hurt in that game) had softened them up too much.
Well, this year they got to play a Los Angeles team in the snow and a rookie QB at home.
I’m assuming I don’t have to remind you how this all finished in 2023, right?
It’s going to be a long two weeks, but we’ll get through this together …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
2025 Mock Fantasy Draft: The TEs could come off the board early
WR Awards: Chris Allen triple crowns Ja’Marr Chase
Watercooler: What are the Cowboys doing?
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Are Early-Round TEs Back In 2025?
By Ian Hartitz and Chris Allen
Only 60 minutes of football separate us from the 2025 offseason. And yet, us fantasy football degenerates couldn't wait for the clock to strike midnight on Super Bowl 59 to start drafting.
Presenting: A way-too-early 2025 Fantasy Football 12-team mock draft!
You can check out the full draft board here. Special thanks to the fine folks who participated in the mock: Damian Dabrowski, Lawrence Jackson, Davis Mattek, Adam Wise, Pete Damilatis, Kyle Dvorchak, Zachary Krueger, Denny Carter, Patrick Daugherty, and Rivers McCown.
Here’s just one part of Ian and Chris’ draft overview.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Trends Compared To Last Season
Ian: The EARLY round TE is BACK
Raiders TE Brock Bowers went 12th overall, and Cardinals TE Trey McBride wasn't too far behind at 16th overall. Sure, Travis Kelce was a first-round option a few years ago, but last year's consensus TE1 Sam LaPorta was a third-round pick in more drafts than not. The allure for Bowers and McBride is clear—they are young ballers in passing games willing to feature them as legit No. 1 options. Still, that is a hefty price to pay for a pair of pass-catchers not exactly dealing with the best QB situations in the world (particularly Bowers).
Chris: RB ADP
I think this is where industry mock drafts part ways with the rest of the community. After seeing Saquon Barkley hit 2,000 yards, Derrick Henry run roughshod over the AFC North, and a host of other RBs have strong performances, I expected to see RBs go off the board early and often. 11 through the first 24 isn’t a surprise. Half of them going toward the end of the second round was a shock. Once the lobbies open for ’25 drafts, I’m anticipating the ADPs of those RBs sliding up closer to the 1-2 turn as the rush to secure rushers takes hold of gamers.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🐐 Is Patrick Mahomes in the GOAT conversation? Great discussion topic.
🪓 Spend up on the Super Bowl Guilloteenie waiver wire. You can’t take it with you.
😆 This can’t be real?! What an introduction.
👀 Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders? What do the Titans need to kick-start the rebuild?
🤔 Why did the Cowboys rush to hire Schotty? Everyone is confused.
⌛️ Who will be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft? Here are the current odds.
🪓 The 10 most chopped players from the Championship Round. RIP Josh Allen.
🎭️ The latest on the Steelers QB drama. This is going to take forever to sort, isn’t it?
📆 Curious about the College Football All-Star games? Here’s the schedule.
2024 Fantasy Football WR Awards: The best, breakouts, and more
By Chris Allen
What a year it was for the wide receiver position, and it wasn’t always the greatest. Yet Chris Allen is here with his awards for the position’s most notable performers. In case you missed his RB awards, you can find them here. We’ll start at the top, with a Bengals wideout who joined a storied list in making history.
The Bhagavad Gita Award
Nominees: Ja’Marr Chase
Winner: Ja’Marr Chase
“Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”
Normally, I’d identify a list of nominees and decide on a winner. There was only one answer here.
There were 18 instances of a WR eclipsing 150 receiving yards in a single game. Ja’Marr Chase claimed three of them. Seventy-four receivers were multi-TD scorers during one of their weekly contests. Chase is the most common name on that list, too, at five. I mean, as the latest Triple Crown winner, there shouldn’t be much doubt as to which WR boosted the most teams into (and through) the playoffs. But the best part is: He didn’t do it on volume alone.
Target Share: 28.0%, 7th (amongst all qualifying WRs – min. 250 routes)
Targets per Route Run: 24.0%, 17.0%
Air Yard Share: 33.0%, 20th
To be fair, Chase was up to 10.2 targets per game with Tee Higgins out. And, yes, with or without Higgins, Chase set a career-high rate in snaps played from the slot (33.6%). However, in both scenarios (Higgins in or out of the lineup), Chase posted top-5 marks in yards per route run on the perimeter. On the season, he was fourth in YAC per reception. “Built different,” I think, is the term the kids use to describe such a player.
For my mental health, Cincinnati’s defense won’t require as many heroic outings from Joe Burrow and Chase next year. Accordingly, his 23.7 PPR PPG might dip. However, if I were picking at the 1.01, clicking on the Bengals’ WR1 wouldn’t be a bad idea.
COOTERDOODLE’S FAVE TWEET |
The Bills will be back. We won’t win but we’ll be back
— steven (@snydxr)
3:38 AM • Jan 27, 2025
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