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Three Tips To Chop Your Opponents
Plus, draft with me...
All week I’ve been grinding the Guilloteenie content, poring over projections, drafting teams and reviewing boards.
Here are my final strategy thoughts for these contests …
By the way, I made a double chop Guiloteenie league for seven other Fantasy Life Newsletter subs to enter. Draft will be today (Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET). Seven spots available, first-come, first-served. Free to enter, and the winner will get a special shoutout/feature in a future newsletter.
👋 Full fade the Seahawks and Broncos. I know, I know. JSN is awesome. He is going to be one of the highest (if not the highest) projected players in the Divisional Round, but at what cost? The bye-week players are literal zeros in this format, where a bench does not exist. If the goal were to get first place every week, the risk would be well worth it. But the goal is the opposite. Let your opponents take on the risk and then enjoy bidding on them next week while your over-eager pals watch from the sidelines.
🦵 Punt QB. I’ve seen multiple drafts where Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye and Jalen Hurts all go in the last round of the five-person drafts. Josh Allen deserves to be the first QB taken, but he doesn’t deserve to go multiple rounds ahead of these other guys. Look at our projections—he doesn’t separate from the rest of the pack enough to justify that cost. And you can’t even make a “multiple games played” argument either—they are barely favored to win vs. the Jags.
🎯 Don’t be afraid of T-Mac and DK. In the drafts I’ve reviewed, I’ve barely seen these guys getting drafted. On the flip side, I’m routinely seeing guys like Rome Odunze and Ricky Pearsall selected over them. Sort by targets on our Wild Card projections and you’ll see that Tetairoa McMillan (7.4) and DK Metcalf (7.0) project for the fifth- and sixth-most targets on the slate. These are the kind of high-floor plays that I want to tack on at the end of my drafts. You’ll be able to backfill them next week via waivers if/when they get bounced.
Alright, happy drafting and I’ll see seven of you at 12:30 today (shoot me a message on social—X / Bluesky—if you get in!) …
Fantasy Football Season Is Not Over
Four rounds. Three chops. One champion. Guilloteenies are now live in the Guillotine Leagues™ lobby.
Fantasy
Undervalued Teams To Target In Playoff Fantasy Drafts
Houston Texans
The Texans’ offense doesn’t offer as much value as the Jaguars’ on paper, but they’re a slightly safer bet to make a deep run. They’ll start the playoffs with a matchup in Pittsburgh, and they’re 3.5-point favorites over the Steelers. Pittsburgh managed to squeak into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth, and they look like an extremely exploitable opponent.
After that, Houston will likely travel to Denver to take on the Broncos, and there’s no reason they can’t win that matchup. They did lose to the Broncos at home in Week 9—their last loss of the season—but it was a three-point loss that was decided as time expired. They had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter, so they’re another underdog who could very easily make a deep postseason run.
Nico Collins is the clear guy to target for Houston, while Woody Marks has emerged as their clear-cut top running back. Dalton Schultz also has some appeal at tight end, while some of the team’s depth receivers (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Christian Kirk) make sense in deeper stacks.
Philadelphia Eagles
The two NFC West superpowers are the favorites in the NFC, but I can’t help but gravitate toward the defending champs. They’re listed at roughly +400 to win the conference, compared to +175 for the Seahawks and +232 for the Rams.
Would it shock anyone if the Eagles turned things around in the playoffs? Their defense is clearly championship-caliber; it’s just whether or not the offense is going to show up. They have more than enough talent on that side of the ball, with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert all capable of posting big fantasy production.
They draw an excellent first-round matchup against a dreadful 49ers’ defense, and the Eagles are listed as 4.5-point favorites in that contest. After that, they will likely head to Chicago for a winnable matchup vs. the Bears. Both of the NFC West teams will likely have to go through each other before even reaching the NFC Championship. That makes Philly my favorite team to target of the bunch, especially since they shouldn’t be quite as popular as the other two.
Fantasy
Fantasy Football Awards 2025: CMC’s Comeback
It’s OK to admit it now. We all had the doubts. Christian McCaffrey was coming off a 2024 season where he missed the beginning of the season and played just four games before ending the season injured. Even with healthy reports from training camp, many fantasy wondered if they might be wasting their first-round draft pick on a 29-year-old RB. Even though that same player compiled 2,023 scrimmage yards and 21 TDs just two years ago. Was CMC still CMC?
Well, those who took the chance were rewarded with a 2025 RB1 season where he posted 2,126 yards and 17 TDs on an ironman-like 413 touches. And for that, Ian Hartitz rewarded him with the 2025 Comeback Player of the Year:
“While McCaffrey's 3.9 yards per carry (lowest since 2020) reflected the reality that we didn't see a lot of big-play fireworks on the ground, it's hard to overstate just how ridiculous the man was as a pass catcher. Consider: CMC would have finished as the overall PPR RB14 without a single rush attempt this season! His 236.4 PPR points from purely receiving production were the eighth most among any player in 2025 and are good for the third-highest mark since 2000 among RBs.”
But Ian doesn’t stop there. He also chose between CMC and Trey McBride for the Fantasy MVP and handed out hardware all over the league. If you had any collection of these players, you likely took home some hardware of your own.
Fantasy
Pretty cool to have Fantasy Life Trivia back, right? Hope you didn’t have to go to the internet to get your answers. And for those who are not sure about whether their answers are correct, here are yesterday’s answers:
Q1: Trey McBride has officially become the fifth tight end in NFL history to crack 300 PPR points in a single season. Which of these stud fantasy tight ends has NOT accomplished that feat?
A: Tony Gonzalez. He topped out at 270.3 with the Chiefs in 2004. Jimmy Graham had 303.5 PPR points in 2013, Mark Andrews had 301.1 in 2021, while Kelce has pulled it off in 2020 and 2022. Rob Gronkowski is the fifth member of this illustrious club, and he has the top PPR season with 330.9 points in 16 games in 2011.
Q2: If Drake Maye takes home the MVP award this season, he will be the fifth QB in NFL history to win the award as a sophomore. The other four players to do it include Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino, and this Hall of Famer.
A: Kurt Warner. Warner went from bagging groceries after going undrafted in 1994, to the Rams’ third-string QB in his rookie season, to the league MVP in 1999. Truly one of the most inspirational “stick with it” stories out there. Manning was the MVP runner-up in his second professional season, while Favre made the Pro Bowl in his second year. Montana didn’t win his first MVP until his 11th professional season, and he followed it up by winning it again in his 12th.
Q3: Chimere Dike has set a new record for NFL rookies, racking up 2,371 all-purpose yards through his first 16 games. He edged out this player, who would go on to have a Hall of Fame career with the Raiders.
A: Tim Brown. Brown’s rookie season was a bit more balanced than Dike’s, who has done most of his damage on special teams. Brown racked up 725 receiving yards, 50 rushing yards and 1,542 yards as a returner. Brown didn’t have a true breakout as a receiver until his sixth professional season, but he then rattled off nine straight years with 1,000+ receiving yards. That’s a bit of reason to be optimistic about Dike’s prospects moving forward.
NOW TIME FOR TODAY’S QUESTION
Q: Matthew Stafford finished 2025 with 46 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. That made him just the fifth QB in NFL history with at least 40 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in a single season. However, only one quarterback has pulled off the feat multiple times.
Lamar Jackson
Tom Brady
Joe Burrow
Aaron Rodgers
Check out tomorrow’s newsletter for the answer.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
Our merry band of football nerds are pumped to do a lot of sitting for the next five days. Playoffs!
👀 It’s January, which means it’s also the kickoff of NFL Draft szn. Ian and Freedman break down the latest mock.
🔪 Here’s a live Guilloteenie draft, to help you get ready for your own.
🙌 Is there a better pick than Puka Nacua as the 1.01 in Guilloteenies?
🎠 Head Coach carousel … lots of rumors and nuggets here.
✌️ Is Colston Loveland the TE2 in the postseason? He has a case.
🤝 The Ravens had to choose between Jim and Lamar … they chose Lamar.
📊 Playoff fantasy football rankings. Dwain has you covered for all contest formats.
💪 A good sign of growth for Caleb Williams.
🍋 Want to a chance to go to that big game in February? Thanks to our friends at Mike’s Hard Lemonade.
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