👀 Three things to look forward to in Week 18

Sure could have used a “bad” Thursday night game last night…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

99% of fantasy football leagues have concluded at this point. Maybe you just so happen to be savage enough to crown a champion in Week 18 (we have rankings to help!), but otherwise: The only thing remaining is for your league’s loser to complete their fantasy football punishment.

Of course, when one fantasy football door closes, thousands of others open: There are MORE than enough DFS and best ball games still available for managers to get their sweat in for Week 18 and beyond.

Today we honor those still brave enough to venture into the Week 18 fantasy waters with three things to be excited about heading into the final regular season game of the 2023-24 season.

🕶️ Just win, baby

There’s something special about a game that features a team with their back firmly against the wall NEEDING a win to have any chance of getting a playoff spot. Many teams have already clinched playoff berths and are simply attempting to secure their division and/or improve seeding, but it’s the squads fighting for the chance to simply secure one more game that are truly fun to watch.

11 such teams are matching this criteria in Week 18 (playoff probability courtesy of the New York Times):

• Bills (95% chance of making playoffs)

• Jaguars (77%)

• Packers (68%)

• Colts (59%)

• Buccaneers (56%)

• Texans (41%)

• Saints (35%)

• Steelers (28%)

• Seahawks (21%)

• Falcons (17%)

• Vikings (3%)

Texans-Colts and Saints-Falcons are the week’s only matchups featuring two of these teams. Get your popcorn ready for the former Saturday night matchup that (somehow) features C.J. Stroud’s first game all season not kicking off at 1:00 pm ET.

💸 Incentives szn

There are a number of players with MAJOR contract incentives on the line in Week 18. As Peter Overzet highlighted earlier this week, the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Baker Mayfield, among others, could pad their bank accounts in a major way with strong showings this weekend.

Of course, there is the reality that not all parties involved have the same level of motivation to help get these players across the finish line.

Obviously, sports books are well aware of these incentives and have adjusted accordingly, but it’s always cool to see players rise to the occasion at the end of the year and add a few dead presidents to their wallets. Good luck to everyone involved!

🏈 Rivalry football

Whether it’s Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers, or Cowboys-Commanders, there are some SERIOUS inter-divisional rivalry games this weekend that have already produced some rather hilarious sound bites from the involved parties.

Just take Bears QB Justin Fields’ thoughts on the Green Bay community.

WR D.J. Moore has also gotten in on the fun.

These teams have varying levels of motivation this week – the Ravens and maybe even the Commanders stand out from this group as teams likely to rest their starters – but even then: Expect the pads to be popping in matchups featuring two squads who simply do NOT like each other.

You see? Even a mostly fantasy-free Week 18 can still be pretty, pretty, pretty cool. Now let’s dive in even deeper and try to answer the week’s most important questions.

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There are so many moving parts ahead of Week 18. Who is motivated? What teams are currently playing their best football? Will Jalen Hurts ever throw A.J. Brown a TD again?

Good news: Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz is here with five enticing questions and answers that will ideally help you — a scholar — win thousands of dollars and/or at least learn something new about the greatest sport ever invented.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

🤔 What offenses are peaking at the right time?

There are four offenses with playoff spots either locked in or at least attainable in Week 18 that have been playing their best football of the year in recent weeks.

🧀 Green Bay Packers

Skill-position talent of all shapes and sizes have been in and out of the lineup during the second half of the season, but none of it has stopped Jordan Love from really putting forward some consistent high-end efficiency down the stretch.

Overall, this team has scored 29, 27, 22, 20, 33 and 33 points over the last six weeks. Only the 49ers (+0.217) and Ravens (+0.159) have a higher EPA per play than the Packers (+0.158) during this admittingly arbitrary timeline – but still!

🐶 Cleveland Browns

The Joe Flacco stuff was a bit funny at first. He led the team to a couple of wins while posting solid counting numbers thanks to high-end volume, so who cares if he had a worse EPA per dropback than Zach Wilson after his first three starts?

Then something funny happened: Flacco started playing a lot like one of the better QBs in the league.

• Week 13: -0.173 EPA per play (26th)

• Week 14: -0.028 (17th)

• Week 15: -0.371 (31st)

• Week 16: +0.416 (5th)

• Week 17: +0.169 (15th)

Flacco carries the position’s sixth-best EPA + CPOE composite score over the past two weeks. In English: Mr. Elite has been incredibly accurate on his way to leading one of the game’s most efficient passing attacks over his last eight quarters of football.

📈 Pittsburgh Steelers

Mason Rudolph is playing … absolutely awesome?

• EPA per dropback: +0.243 (No. 2)

• Completion percentage over expected: +11.2% (No. 1)

• PFF pass grade: 73.3 (No. 21)

• Passer rating: 115.3 (No. 1)

• Yards per attempt: 10.5 (No. 1)

The longtime backup most famous for being assaulted by Myles Garrett has legit been playing lights out over the past two weeks on his way to leading the team to 64 combined points against the Bengals and Seahawks. Second-year WR George Pickens suddenly looks unstoppable, with 4-195-2 and 7-131-0 receiving lines to his name over the past two weeks. Literally, only the Ravens have averaged more yards per play (7.1 vs. 6.7) than the Steelers during this span.

This won’t keep up. It won’t. It can’t. It could? It won’t. It probably won’t. But a victory over the Ravens, alongside either a Bills or Jaguars loss, will get Mike Tomlin and company into the playoffs … seemingly peaking at the right time behind the right arm of Mason f*cking Rudolph. What a time to be alive.

If you want fireworks: You’re in the right place — and Chris Allen is here to help you get that popcorn ready. Presenting, Fantasy Life’s Matchup of the Week: The Minnesota Vikings at the Detroit Lions.

A Week 18 divisional rematch sounds slow-paced and low-scoring. The teams already know each other, and there are only four quarters left before the offseason. But the stakes are high for both squads, with both teams playing for something in the final week of the regular season:

• Detroit: despite their crushing loss to the Cowboys in Week 17, the No. 2 seed (aka staying at home until the NFC Championship game) is still in play if they get a win

• Vikings: Yes, at 7-9, Minnesota can still get into the playoffs. However, the IF, AND, and OR statements needed to make that happen look more like lines of code than a path to playing more football in January. But, most importantly, it requires a Vikings’ win for any of it to matter.

So, lucky for us, the chance for players to rest is minimal unless it happens late in the game due to a blowout.

✍️ Vikings Week 18 Outlook

With how the Vikings have played recently, it’s hard to see a lopsided matchup occurring. 

HC Kevin O’Connell’s QB problem has affected his playcalling. Minnesota has run fewer plays over the last two weeks, as Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall have combined for three TDs and five INTs over the same span. However, as we saw in their first meeting, the Lions’ secondary can be forgiving to opposing passing games.

In their first game without T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings essentially tried to replace Pro-Bowl TE with Johnny Mundt (career-high seven targets). The results went about as expected. Hall and Mullens (after Hall got benched during halftime) attempted 11 passes in obvious passing situations and got three first downs. But, overall, the volume went to the right players.

Justin Jefferson didn’t record a catch until the second quarter but soaked up 32.3% of the looks and almost 50.0% of the air yards (49.8%, to be exact). 

However, Jefferson was the biggest beneficiary of the switch at QB.

Per PFF, Hall’s average time to throw was 3.51 seconds through the first two quarters of the game. For reference, the only other passers this season who needed that much time to let the ball fly were Malik Willis and Marcus Mariota. Not great! As a result, Jefferson sat at a whopping 20.0 air yards per target on both of Hall’s passes thrown his way.

Think about that. Your best WR (heck, one of THE best receivers) gets reduced to a jump-ball, contested-catch merchant on a couple of deep shots. However, in the second half, Mullens (3.03 average time to throw, almost a full half-second faster) was able to get the passing game back on track.

• Air yards per target: 20.0 (first half), 10.1 (second half)

• Air yard share: 39.2%, 57.4%

• TPRR: 14.3%, 33.3%

• Target Share: 22.2%, 36.4%

For WRs, and specifically receivers like Jefferson (who sits just outside the Top 20 in yards after the catch per reception), where they get targets matters almost as much as how often they earn targets.

Jefferson ran over 40.0% of his routes from the slot with Hall under center but only got the ball thrown his way when he was on the outside. Accordingly, he had -1 YAC after the first half. 

Not only did Mullens look his way more often in the second half, but a quarter of Jefferson’s targets came while he was running from the interior. Combined with his shorter aDOT, unsurprisingly, we saw his YPRR jump to 1.92 over the final two frames. After the Lions just hemorrhaged 227 yards to CeeDee Lamb and Jefferson smoked them for 141 two weeks ago, the former LSU star is in line for another big day to keep the Vikings in the playoff hunt.

Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 18 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Fabian Sommer…

Per Sommer; “Good to -120. The Packers offense has been great but this is a tough test against a stout Bears defense that defends the run and play-action well. On the other side of the ball I don't see Joe Barry's defense will defend the Bears' dual-threat rushing attack. Chicago's offense should be fine and they are well equipped to play spoiler here.”

📜 Ever wondered who the players believe are the best coaches? The results are in!

👨‍🍳 The Ravens add to their banged-up RB room. That first-round bye will come in handy.

🌶️ Looking to spice up your Sunday Night? Pete is here to help (get your mind out of the gutter).

📺 Bold calls, incentives to monitor, lessons from 2023, and more. Every answer you need for Week 18.

🐬 Miami is hurt, dog. Please do something, injury Gods.

😅 He’s burned you all season, but trust us….Week 18 is Tony Pollard week.

🏆 Matthew Berry’s fantasy football trophy is pretty cool. Kings stay kings.

✂️ Last place doesn’t complete their fantasy football punishment? Cut ‘em.

🤣 Who DOES complete their fantasy football punishment? Losers of our Eliminator League. Darkness retreat szn.

😮 Not everyone is pleased about the Pro Bowl results. Count Papa Winfield among them.

Remember that movie “Two for the money”? With Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey? Well, McConaughey finds himself hitting NFL picks better than ANYONE for a while … until the money and fame get to his head leading to him bottoming out after losing his work ethic and process.

Mediocre movie — but the underlying point that one can NEVER get complacent in sports betting applies to, well, sports betting. This is why Betting Life analyst Geoff Ulrich has remained committed to explaining the process throughout the season — and he accordingly has some doozies on the docket ahead of Week 18.

🦁 Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play to: Lions -3.5 (-120)

I bet this early in the week in our FREE bet tracker when the line was at Lions -3 but I would still play this at -3.5.

Dan Campbell has decided against resting his starters this week and seems hellbent on washing the taste of that last-minute loss to Dallas out of his team’s mouth as quickly as possible.

And what better way to move on from that Cowboys loss than with a beat down of a divisional rival (whom you can also eliminate from playoff contention with a win)?

The Vikings still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, but if we’re being honest, this team’s shot at doing anything this season ended last week against Green Bay, a game they lost in undignified fashion 33-10. 

The Vikings' defense, once regarded as a strength of their team, has also regressed of late. They got shredded last week for 175 rush yards by Green Bay’s running backs (5.1 yards per carry) and will now face a Lions offense that is 3rd in EPA per rush since Week 10. 

Indoors is also the place to trust Detroit and, specifically, Jared Goff. Goff is 24-8 ATS playing in a dome for his career and is also 12-4 ATS after a loss when the next game is played at home (per The Action Network). 

Nick Mullens is a turnover machine (6 INTs last two starts) and is now 6-12-1 ATS for his career as a starter. Detroit should handle their business this week. 

🐃 Player prop: Stefon Diggs over 59.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Projection: 65.0

• Play to: 62.5 (-110)

Stefon Diggs started the year with five games of 100+ receiving yards in his first six starts. Then the Bills went through an offensive slump, changed coordinators, and now Diggs limps into this game (figuratively speaking, he’s not injured), having gone for less than 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven starts. 

Still, in a matchup against a regressing Miami passing defense, with everything on the line for Buffalo (Playoffs, Division title), I can’t see Diggs not playing a huge role. Miami has had trouble limiting elite WR1s in multiple spots this season and has allowed Zay Flowers and Cee Dee Lamb to go for 100+ yards in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins will also likely be without top corner Xavien Howard again, making it more likely Diggs will get free for a big play at some point. 

Diggs’ aggregate projection is set at 65 yards on Fantasy Life, and given that his recent production has been so poor, the fact he’s trending as more of an over-target is a good indication of how solid this matchup is. I like playing Diggs for a big finish and would even consider using his over in same-game parlays or targeting his alternate totals at 75+ or 100+ yards this week as well.