What in the world?

Like, I understand the in-game benching for Winston vs. the Chiefs. He threw 3 picks and deserved to sit down for a minute.

But how in God’s name are we going back to the well the following week with a QB who has been objectively worse than Winston?

Not only does DTR sink any potential for the passing game—Jerry Jeudy and Co. are not startable this week—but he also threatens to ruin the potential production for the best waiver add of the week in Jerome Ford.

The locker room loves Jameis. Fantasy nation loves Jameis. What do the Browns think they are accomplishing by starting a lesser option?

If they are trying to prove a point, they succeeded …

Assuming the point is reminding us that there isn’t another organization in the league that makes worse decisions when it comes to QBs.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 16

2. Watercooler: Could the Lions get some help back soon?

3. Ian’s Manifesto: More on the DTR situation … and numbers to back it
   

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 16

Here are two of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 16. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) at Cowboys

Since the Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield has 5 INTs over the past four games. For the season, he has 14 INTs in 14 starts.

With Mayfield, there's always a little bit of bad with the good.

The good news is that he has given fantasy investors a baker's dozen's worth of good since joining the Buccaneers last year.

Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has an NFL-best 60 TDs passing, and that doesn't include his 6 in the 2023-24 playoffs.

Even with his 5 INTs over the past month, Mayfield also has 1,112 yards and 8 TDs passing in that span as well as 11-74-1 rushing.

In 11 games this year with No. 1 WR Mike Evans, Mayfield has had a positional fantasy finish outside the top 10 just twice.

I love the matchup for Mayfield against the Cowboys, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.8).

For the game total, I bet over 47 in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have this game projected at 50.0 in our Fantasy Life Game Models. 

This season, the Buccaneers and Cowboys have both been strong over teams in the betting market (per Action Network).

• Buccaneers Overs: 9-5 | 22.5% ROI | +6.54 Margin

• Cowboys Overs: 9-5 | 23.0% ROI | +2.61 Margin

I expect points in this game, and that should benefit Mayfield as the facilitator of the Bucs offense.

Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for daily guidance, best bets, and more.

Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Saints

Since the Week 10 bye, Josh Jacobs has had an Offensive Player of the Year-like run with 559 yards and 9 TDs on 107 carries and 14 targets in five games while edging out presumed OPOY Saquon Barkley in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (8.6 vs. 8.5, per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Over his past five games, Jacobs has a TD and 18-plus opportunities in each one, and 100-plus yards in four of them. That's some bona fide league-winner stuff right there.

For the season, he leads the league with 18 goal-line carries.

I expect Jacobs to have similar usage and production again this week: The Packers are at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 32-19 ATS (20.3% ROI) and 39-12 ML (17.0% ROI). They're massive favorites and likely to have a run-heavy game script. And the Saints are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (4.6%).

This is a total blowup spot.

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:

• WRs for Week 16: Ja’Marr Chase is out of this world.

• QBs for Week 16: Can Josh Allen keep his MVP run going against the Patriots?

• TEs for Week 16: Is this the week Trey McBride hits paydirt?

😎 Start Your Holiday Shopping at Knockaround

Start Holiday Shopping by heading over to Knockaround.com to pick up a pair of polarized shades for you or as a gift for less than $50. With over 25 frame styles and dozens of colors, you’re guaranteed to find sunglasses that look good and protect your eyes with full UV400 protection. And be sure to check out Knockaround’s officially licensed NFL collection, so you can rep your team all week, and—hopefully—all the way through the playoffs. Visit Knockaround.com and use code: LIFE for Free Shipping on your order!

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🤝 A changing of the guard in Atlanta. No longer a left-handed complement.

 🧐 Ian and Dwain analyze Utilization Report data and identify players to target.

🤔 Could the Lions be getting help by the Super Bowl? Bold claim.

📆 There’s a tripleheader on Dec. 28. Decent slate.

🤹 Week 16 playoff scenarios. Knock yourself out.

🙈 The Week 16 QB picture is bleak. Woof.

🔥 Need a defense for Week 16? Top streaming options.

💓 We love you Randy. Justin Jefferson with the classy celly.

Week 16 Ian’s Manifesto

• By Ian Hartitz

Who should fantasy managers want under center between Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

Jameis and it's not particularly close, but sadly the Browns are making the switch to DTR.

Look, I understand how bad the Deshaun Watson experience has been in Cleveland. He's objectively been one of the worst QBs in the NFL over the past three seasons.

And yet, DTR is one of the VERY few QBs who you can make a compelling argument has certifiably been worse.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson among 64 QBs with 125-plus dropbacks in 2023-24:

• EPA per dropback: -0.284 (62nd)

• Completion percentage over expected: -12.8% (63rd)

• Passer rating: 42.6 (64th)

• Pass TD rate: 0.7% (64th)

• INT rate: 4.8% (62nd)

• Yards per attempt: 3.7 (64th)

That last number is particularly egregious: DTR's 3.7 yards per attempt is the single-worst mark in the SUPER BOWL ERA among all QBs with at least 125 career pass attempts.

The offense-wide results have accordingly been miserable. Thompson-Robinson led the Browns to 13, 12, and 3 points in three spot starts last season, failing to clear 165 yards in any of them. His lone extended appearance in 2024 featured 82 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INTs on 11-of-24 passing (45.8% completion) … against the same porous Bengals defense he might face this Sunday.

Look, Winston is clearly capable of dragging this Browns offense into the dumpster himself, but at least he's provided glimmers of hope in addition to his ever-electric pregame speeches. If the Browns' goal at this point is to simply tank, then yeah, go with DTR, but fantasy managers of Jerry Jeudy and company NEED Jameis under center in order to have any level of confidence in an upside scenario.

Jeudy would be the upside WR2 he's been for the better part of the last two months if Winston were under center; shoutout to the 25-year-old talent for being one of just five pass catchers with 1,000-plus receiving yards this season. Fantasy managers could also feel relatively optimistic about Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman (concussion), and David Njoku (hamstring), again, if we could avoid the DTR experience.

But sadly that's not the world we live in. So, as Pete mentioned in the intro, largely avoid all associated pass catchers at all costs in Cleveland for the time being. A similar sentiment is true for the team's newfound starting RB as well.

First order of business, we have the answer to yesterday’s Trivia Quiz. There are five QBs who have surpassed Aaron Rodgers’ 14 seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards and 20 TDs: Tom Brady (20), Peyton Manning (16), Philip Rivers (15), Drew Brees (15), Brett Favre (15). Did you get them all?

Now for today’s question: Saquon Barkley will be looking to become the ninth player in NFL history with at least 2,000 rushing yards. How many of the other eight can you name? (Answer in tomorrow’s newsletter)

Win your leagues. Win your bets. Get 12 months of fantasy football and sports betting coverage with FantasyLife+. 

Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY