Patrick Mahomes practiced in full?! My lean on Tuesday was that he would sit on a short week with a high-ankle sprain, but now it sounds like he will play on Saturday vs. the Texans. We have him ranked as midrange QB2, but this is obviously good news for anyone starting Travis Kelce or Xavier Worthy.

The Titans are turning to Mason Rudolph. The passing game has submarined in the past few weeks with Will Levis, so this can only be a positive for Calvin Ridley and Co.

Our Desmond Ridder nightmare might be over? As someone who could have used a little more from Brock Bowers on Monday, AOC returning is a week late … but good news nonetheless.

Can Drew Lock get Malik Nabers the ball? The musical chairs at Giants QB continue with Lock back at the helm. I don’t care who it is as long as they understand the mission, which is feeding Nabers targets until his hands are calloused.

For other risers/fallers this week, check out Dwain’s piece below …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Dwain’s Week 16 Rankings: A New Overall RB1 In Town

2. Watercooler: Cryptic WR post alert!

3. Trivia: Who doesn’t like a good donut?
   

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Week 16 Rankings: Who’s Up, Who’s Down?

• by Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the week and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 16 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those playoff start-sit decisions. One more win and you are in the championship game!

Note: as you read through the rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Lions

Gibbs stepped into a massive role, delivering 28.4 fantasy points on a 74% snap share, tying a career-high 8.7 Utilization Score. The second-year running back has been money when given 60% or more of the snaps. He has nine such games on his career resume and has averaged a mouth-watering 21.7 points.

The Bears have sanctioned the second-largest fantasy boost (5.6) to opposing RB rooms, and the Lions are 7-point favorites. Detroit owns the fourth-highest team total (27.5). Expect Sonic to gather enough rings to enter a portal to massive fantasy points.

Gibbs UPGRADES to RB1 overall and is a SMASH play.

James Conner | RB | Cardinals

With passing-down specialist Emari Demercado placed on IR, Conner notched his highest fantasy output (30.8) and Utilization Score (9.2) of the season in Week 15. Over the last four games, the eighth-year veteran has an 8.8 Utilization Score, handling 66% of the rushing attempts and garnering a 13% target share.

The Cardinals need a victory to keep their playoff chances alive. Per NFL.com, their chances fall to 3% with a loss this weekend but improve to 15% with a victory. With everything on the line in a winnable matchup against the Panthers as 5-point favorites, we could see another feature workload for Conner.

Carolina has empowered opposing RB rooms to a 7.8-point fantasy boost per game—the most generous mark in the NFL. Opposing backfields have netted 56 yards above their season average.

Conner is a SMASH play—he UPGRADES to midrange RB1 territory in a key week for fantasy managers.

Brian Thomas | WR | Jaguars

Thomas has been impressive all season, but the rookie has ascended to new heights over the last four games with Jacksonville's pass-catching unit in shambles. Over that span, he has the fifth-highest Utilization Score (9.1), averaging 20.4 points per game.

Despite the challenges of underwhelming quarterback play, Thomas has managed WR28, WR15, WR19, and WR4 finishes since Week 11. With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram done for the season, it is hard to imagine Thomas' role changing—he is the centerpiece of their offense. His Utilization Score comps have been WR1s over half the time.

Thomas UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status against the Raiders.

Jerry Jeudy | WR | Browns

You will rarely find a player fall in the ranks as Jeudy has with the announcement of Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting quarterback. In two full games as a starter, DTR has thrown for 121 and 165 yards with zero touchdowns and has a 51% career completion rate. YIKES!

The Bengals' secondary has endorsed the ninth-largest fantasy boost to the WR position (4.1). Still, it is hard to imagine any pass catchers accessing this matchup's theoretical ceiling. The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs, and their mediocre 19.8 team total feels too high.

Jeudy DOWNGRADES to boom-bust WR3 status and is the BRASS BALLS BENCH player of the week.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

😈 It’s fantasy football punishment season. Attacking the body, mind, and soul.

🐬 Can anyone translate this Tyreek Hill post? Feels ominous.

🤝 Kyler Murray is guaranteeing a TD for him? Oh boy …

😡 Here we go again … please no, I can’t.

🚑️ Keep tabs on this DNP. Not great.

🙏 Good news for this Dolphins WR … after a huge scare on Sunday.

🐻 Sure the Bears are a mess … but this revenge narrative has some FLEX appeal this week.

Welcome back! As always, here is the answer to yesterday’s question (Who are the eight other players with at least 2,000 rushing yards in a single season?):

A: Derrick Henry (2020), Adrian Peterson (2012), Chris Johnson (2009), Jamal Lewis (2003), Terrell Davis (1998), Barry Sanders (1997), Eric Dickerson (1984), O.J. Simpson (1973)

Now … onto today’s Fantasy Life Trivia question, with a look back to last week’s TNF game before tonight’s!

Q: The Rams managed to beat the 49ers with zero touchdowns on Thursday Night Football, but that’s not quite as rare as you think. Can you name the other three teams to win games without putting the ball in the end zone this season?

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