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The TE Hero You Need In Week 16
The week's 'top play'
“Aw shit, they got the beam on me … Playin' defense, tryna draw up a scheme for me.” —Darren Waller
Who knew when Mr. Waller uttered those seminal lyrics on his hit single Top Play earlier this year that they would be so relevant to the fantasy football world in December.
But here we are in Week 16 and Waller is coming off a monster 2-TD game vs. the Steelers.
As we’ve mentioned multiple times throughout the year, the Bengals have a historically bad defense this year and are specifically atrocious against the TE position.
They give up the biggest fantasy boost to opposing TDs by a wide margin—more than 5 points per game than the next worst team (the one he just lit up like a Christmas tree):
And despite all of this, he’s still somehow only rostered on 37% of teams per Yahoo’s data.
You’re obviously starting Trey McBride, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and Harold Fannin (he had 14 targets last week!) over him this week, but … that’s about it.
We technically have Brock Bowers ranked ahead of him in our aggregate ranks, but I—and I can’t believe I’m saying this—can’t imagine starting him over the red-hot Waller (the Raiders have a hilarious 11.5 implied team total this week).
I hate to say it, but he’s a…
“Top play, gotta put this shit on SportsCenter … We gon′ stick a fork in 'em, get it done.”
The Vanicream TRUST-O-METER: Trevor Lawrence
Week 15 was a beautiful thing for those starting Trevor Lawrence in their fantasy playoff matchups. Six total TDs and 44.30 fantasy points to be the QB1 on the week. That makes it 12 TD passes in the last four games for a player who had us scratching our heads earlier this season. That’s great and all, but can you trust him in Week 16 with a trip to Denver to face the ferocious Broncos D? At best, that’s a 4 or 5 on The Vanicream TRUST-O-METER.
And if this were the Vanicream UPSIDE-O-METER? Now that we know how explosive T-Law can be, let’s put him around an 8 or 9, but still, that’s a risky proposition in a win-or-go-home position.
And hey, if you don’t know who Vanicream is—besides being fantasy fans, they’re the #1 Dermatologist Recommended Brand for Sensitive Skin. Celebrating their 50th year, their products were developed with one goal—to create something for people with sensitive skin. The ingredients make all the difference, and Vanicream’s most important ingredient—that’s trust! (thus the TRUST-O-METER!). If you want to give them a try, your skin will thank you.
Fantasy
Guess This Freedman’s Favorite RB for Week 16
This player has a shot to join Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson in posting multiple NFL seasons with 20+ TDs. He’s also alternated 3-TD games with pedestrian efforts—guess what he’s due for this week. And he has a nickname that is quite befitting his speedy skill set. Who is he?
While we’re at it, enjoy Matthew Freedman’s favorite plays for this important semifinal weekend of the fantasy playoffs.
Fantasy
It’s Contract Incentives SZN …
We’re down to the final three weeks of the season, which means it’s officially time for everyone’s favorite season: 2025 NFL contract incentives SZN. NFL players are just like us. It doesn’t matter how much you’re already making; who doesn’t want to pick up a few extra bucks?
Fortunately, all this information is available to us. Which players have the most to gain over the final weeks of the year? Let’s dive in.
Also, this will be updated heading into WeekS 17 and 18, and as we get more information, we’ll know exactly what each player is chasing over their final games.
Sam Darnold
Darnold is the No. 1 QB to watch from an incentives standpoint. He can earn an extra $500k apiece if he gets to 28 passing touchdowns and 4,000 passing yards. He’s currently sitting at 22 passing touchdowns and 3,433 yards, so he’d need to average two touchdowns and 189 passing yards if he plays in his final three outings. The Seahawks are currently tied atop the NFC West standings with the Rams, and those two squads are battling for the top spot in the conference overall. Those teams will meet in Week 16, and the winner of that contest will be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed.
He also has two other incentives related to his on-field performance. He gets $500k if he finishes the season with a passer rating of at least 100 and another $500k for a completion percentage of at least 67.5%. Darnold is currently at 102.1 and 67.4, respectively, so Darnold can finish with an extra $2M if he checks all the correct boxes down the stretch.
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle has been a massive success for the Panthers this season, and he’s already cleared a few statistical hurdles to earn himself an extra $1.75M. That said, he still has a few major marks left to clear that could result in an even larger payday.
The biggest bonus is $1M for getting to 1,350 scrimmage yards. That shouldn’t be difficult down the stretch. He’s already at 1,237, so he needs just 113 over his final three games. Dowdle would earn another $250k by getting to 8 total TDs, and he’s currently sitting at 7. That also feels very doable.
Those are the last two statistical marks for Dowdle to reach, but he can earn a final $500k bonus by earning a Pro Bowl selection. Dowdle ranks seventh in the fan vote at running back (and third in the NFC), so that feels well within the realm of possibility.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs is a veteran receiver with an incentive-laden contract. He has some big escalators built in for receptions and receiving yards:
Receptions: 67 currently; $500k bonuses for 70, 80, 90 and 100
Receiving Yards: 731 currently; $500k bonuses for 1,000, 1,100, 1,200 and 1,300
Diggs probably won’t make it past the first rung of the yardage ladder, but he could rack up a few of the different receptions milestones. That said, he’s going to need to be more involved than he’s been in recent weeks: he has just 8 catches for 72 yards across his past three games.
The good news is that the Patriots are still fighting for a division title, and they have a slim chance at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A big game vs. the Ravens in Week 16 would certainly help Diggs’ cause.
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
It’s December and the fantasy playoffs staring are here! Time for some silliness and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
👀 Is it time to sit Emeka Egbuka, if you’re in the playoffs in spite of him.
🏈 Missed on your FAABs, the Waiver Wire Express Guide has a few more ideas.
📺 Is the Seattle offense slowing down just before rematch with the Rams?
🙋🏼 Jake’s office hours in the Fantasy Life Discord start at 1 p.m. ET. Get those playoff questions in!
🤔 How far did Patrick Mahomes drop in Dynasty QB rankings?
🤣 Wait, who is campaigning for the Pro Bowl? Haha.
🧝 The man who cursed the Dolphins? Many are wondering.
🚑️ Sorry, McVay. I don’t believe you.
🏅 QB WINZ. You won’t believe who is at the top.
🥹 We’ve all had this conversation after getting bounced from the playoffs.
🎯 Jawhar Jordan needs to be picked up if he’s still available.
🤞 Enter for your chance to win a signed Lawrence Taylor helmet. OG LT!
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