And our friends at Underdog have already launched a handful of massive contests that include the incoming rookies.

I put the Xavier Worthy ADP under a microscope yesterday and today I want to chew on one of the QB prices, which might surprise you …

That’s right—Jayden Daniels is currently an early-fourth-round pick with an ADP of 37.7 on Underdog.

He’s the QB4 behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts.

And crazy enough, that still might be slightly conservative.

In his Way-Too-Early 2025 ranks, Ian had Daniels as his QB3—ahead of Hurts—and that’s where I’d be inclined to slot him as well.

When you consider what he did as a rookie—scoring 20+ fantasy points per game—with limited weaponry, it’s hard not to think the ceiling is the roof as far as his fantasy potential.

Daniels will only continue to improve, as will the roster.

It’s one of the reasons that the Commanders at +1800 are one of my favorite early 2026 Super Bowl bets.

If the Commanders can make a significant add at WR in either the draft or FA, both Daniels’ ADP and Washington’s Super Bowl odds will move quickly.

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Could This Dart Be A Bullseye?

Speaking of young QBs, Thor Nystrom is head-down in his QB evaluation for the upcoming NFL Draft, and recently weighed in on his current QB3 in the class …

… “Do we credit Dart for a bona fide big-league throw that beat multiple future NFL defenders to move the chains? Do we ding him for flirting with more danger than needed by locking onto his primary read? This is the paradox of the Jaxson Dart evaluation.”

Let’s get into it.

Dart stands 6-foot-2 with a broad-shouldered frame and a thick build. He weighed into the Senior Bowl at 226 pounds, and had the third-longest wingspan of QBs at the Hula, Shrine, or Senior. 

He is a strong athlete who lived up to his dual-threat billing in the SEC. When he tucks, Dart squirts upfield into the second level with surprising burst. He’s a tough kid who would rather lower the shoulder than slide. He has played hurt. Dart could provide Bo Nix-like rushing utility at the next level.

In the pocket, Dart is clever in his subtle movements to buy more space or an extra beat to throw. He throws from multiple arm slots, with a smooth, repeatable motion, and a quick release. One area for development is footwork. Dart’s feet can have a mind of their own, a habit that can skew his accuracy down to the layups.

What Went So Wrong For The Dolphins in 2024?

Shifting gears from looking forward, it’s equally as important to reflect. The Miami Dolphins went from one of fantasy football’s most reliable offenses in 2023, to anything but throughout last season.

So … we asked Ian Hartitz, what happened in South Beach?!

Biggest surprise: TE Jonnu Smith

Smith's YAC-friendly speed and physicality were expected to fit well inside Mike McDaniel's ever-well-schemed passing attack, but even his biggest truthers couldn't have seen the 29-year-old veteran putting up these sorts of numbers.

Smith among 31 TEs with 50-plus targets:

• Receptions: 88 (No. 4)

• Receiving yards: 884 (No. 4)

• Receiving TD: 8 (tied for No. 2)

• Yards per route run: 1.96 (No. 5)

• Targets per route run: 24.6% (No. 6)

• Passer rating when targeted: 123.9 (No. 6)

It would have made sense if Smith managed to turn his limited opportunities into some big plays here and there, but leading the offense in receptions (88) over the likes of Tyreek Hill (81) and Jaylen Waddle (58)? Absolute madness—credit to Smith for the eighth-year breakout, and apologies to Mr. Arthur Smith for ever doubting his 2023 usage!

Biggest disappointment: WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

On the one hand, Smith's breakout was awesome.

On the other, it came in large part because Hill and Waddle failed to live up to their billing as the NFL's best WR duo. The WR30 and WR51 in PPR points per game, the speedsters simply never managed to consistently replicate the sort of fireworks that were commonplace during their first two seasons together.

The absence of Tua during the early parts of the season obviously didn't help, but still: Dolphins WRs went from ranking sixth in receiving yards after the catch in both 2022 and 2023 to 25th in 2024. Targeting either simply wasn't anywhere close to as efficient as it used to be.

Hill and Waddle passer rating when targeted by year:

• 2024: Hill (97.1), Waddle (90.6)

• 2023: Hill (119.8), Waddle (101.2)

• 2022: Hill (103.1), Waddle (122.6)

Hill has the excuse of age (31 in March) and a lingering wrist injury, while it's a bit tougher to figure out exactly why things went so south for Waddle. Here's to hoping the once-formidable duo turns things around in 2025 and beyond.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🔮 How will the first round of the NFL draft shake out? The script has been leaked.

🤝 The Saints get their new coach. The Eagles couldn’t get him to run it back.

😬 Is Year 3 the make-it-or-break-it year for Anthony Richardson? We’ll need to see a lot.

📣 Will Tee Higgins break his news on X? I think so!

📚 The Small School Report—hidden gems for the 2025 draft?

✍️ Speaking of Bengals … the 5 most interesting teams of the offseason.

👄 Who is the biggest trash-talker in the NFL? Fred Warner has a surprising answer.

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