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How Far Will Ty Simpson Fall?

The NFL scouting combine begins in just a handful of days (Feb. 23), and that will give us our first real inflection point of draft season.

At the combine, we'll get official biophysical measurements for players (size, speed, agility, explosiveness). We'll get reports on which teams are meeting with which players. And we'll get rumors about which players are generally high or low on team big boards across the league.

So now feels like a decent time to highlight some of Freedman’s prospects whose draft stock has gone up or down over the past month (since the College Football Playoffs National Championship).

📉 QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

In the first round of the College Football Playoff, Ty Simpson had his best game in months (232 yards, two TDs passing, 9.4 AY/A) and looked like someone who might solidify his Round 1 status with a strong postseason.

But in the quarterfinals, he was timid and terrible (67 yards on 16 pass attempts) as Alabama suffered a 38-3 loss to Indiana.

Since then—even with how thin this QB class is—Simpson's draft stock has slipped.

Most mocks still have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but right now I'm planting a red flag: By the time we get to April, I expect Simpson will be viewed as a consensus Day 2 selection.

For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.

On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

For good reason, Simpson's draft stock has fallen, and I believe it will fall farther still.

Glass Half-Full: Not Too Many Holes To Fill In Chicago

Year 1 of the Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams partnership produced the Bears' first NFC North title since 2018, along with countless thrilling late-game comebacks. While the clock struck midnight on Chicago's Cinderella season in overtime against the Rams, it was still a pretty great step in the right direction for a team that had the NFL's second-fewest wins from 2021 to 2024.

• 2025: 11-6 (+26 point differential, preseason win total: 8.5)

• Points per game: 25.9 (9th)

• EPA per pass: +0.12 (9th)

• EPA per rush: +0.01 (6th)

• Points per game against: 24.4 (23rd)

• EPA per pass against: +0.09 (20th)

• EPA per rush against: -0.04 (21st)

The glass-half-empty view entering 2026 would center around the regression gods waging war against a squad that finished 8-5 in one-score games and will now have to face a first-place schedule. The glass-half-full view would focus on a rising young roster that doesn't have too many holes to fill—especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Need 1: Secondary

This already meh defense has four starters in the backend hitting unrestricted free agency:

• S Kevin Byard: The veteran ball-hawk picked off an NFL-high 7 passes in 2025. Byard will be 33 next August.

• S Jaquan Brisker: Showed out during the Bears' season-ending loss to the Rams and provided plenty of physicality as the defense's primary box safety.

• CB Nahshon Wright: The defense's highest graded corner via PFF, Wright's 5 interceptions were tied for the most at the position.

• DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson: The physical veteran spent most of his time as the defense's slot corner after being signed in October.

Hell, even backups Jonathan "Simone Biles' husband" Owens and Elijah Hicks are free agents, leaving the Bears without a single safety under contract ahead of 2026. Cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon will be back, but plenty more work around them needs to be done.

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

👀 Speaking of draft risers and fallers, here’s how the entire first round is shaking out.

💡 Fun trade ideas. Kyler to the Jets?!

🚛 What other QBs could be on the move? Let the QB carousel begin.

🍼 There’s a youth movement in Las Vegas … with the coaches.

🌟 How will George Pickens' free agency play out with Cowboys? Good breakdown.

🚀 Did late-season surges influence early rankings? On some players.

❤️ The consensus 1.01 in 2026 Dynasty drafts is …

🤔 And how about redraft mock drafts? More than Bijan at 1.01.