The Biggest Trap Team Of The Playoffs?

Fade the dirty birds ...

Author

KC Joyner
January 09, 2026

Who says you have to wait until next season to play fantasy football? With our Guilloteenie leagues, you can play fantasy football throughout the playoffs. These operate like Guillotine Leagues™ in that the lowest-scoring team gets eliminated every week. You can join five-team leagues that have one team eliminated per week, or go the Double Chop route that has two teams eliminated each week. The players from those eliminated teams are then available via FAAB bidding.

Since these Guilloteenie teams have eight players, you’ll be in a league with either 40 or 72 drafted players. That means these will be stacked clubs, so what can you do to increase your odds of winning in this highly competitive environment?

The optimal draft strategy is to get someone who can have one of the greatest playoff runs in NFL history. More realistically, you’ll want to stock your squad with impact players from teams that are likely to make it deep into the playoffs. The more players you have of that nature, the fewer you’ll need to replace in later rounds and the more FAAB you will be able to direct toward preferred replacements.

So, how can you determine which teams are most likely to advance deep in the playoffs? One helpful method is to ask, “Does a team from a strong division tend to advance further in the postseason than a team from a weak division?”

To answer this question, I looked at the relative win percentages of NFL divisions since 2002 (more on this on my Substack), which is the year the NFL changed to an eight-division playoff format. I then gauged how well teams in each division fared in each playoff round.

The teams in the strong divisions won about as often as you’d expect. Where the drop-off occurred was in the weak divisions. For example, only three of the 22 teams that were from divisions that finished eighth in division win percentage won a divisional playoff game. Only two of those teams won a conference championship, and the 2018 New England Patriots are the only team from the No. 8 division to win a Super Bowl.

Things aren’t that much better for the No. 6 and No. 7 divisions. Only 13 of the 49 teams at that level claimed a divisional playoff victory. Only six of those won a conference title, and just three of those clubs won a Super Bowl.

That strongly suggests that you’ll want to avoid teams from the divisions that rank 6-8 this season. So, which ones are those? Here are the 2025 divisional win/loss rankings:

  • No. 1 – NFC West (playoff teams: LAR, SEA, SF)

  • No. 2 – NFC North (CHI, GB)

  • No. 3 (tied) – AFC East (BUF, NE)

  • No. 3 (tied) – AFC South (JAX, HOU)

  • No. 5 – AFC West (DEN, LAC)

  • No. 6 – NFC South (CAR)

  • No. 7 – AFC North (PIT)

  • No. 8 – NFC East (PHI)

Most Guilloteenie fantasy managers won’t be prioritizing Carolina players, but these rankings also strongly suggest de-emphasizing Pittsburgh or Philadelphia players. The Eagles certainly have ample offensive talent, but Philadelphia players have largely disappointed in fantasy this season. Combine that with the 2025 NFC East ranking in the bottom 6% of divisional win rates since 1970, and it says you should look elsewhere for better long-term playoff value ...

Fantasy Football Season Is Not Over

Four rounds. Three chops. One champion. Guilloteenies are now live in the Guillotine Leagues™ lobby.

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Dwain McFarland’s Rankings For The 2026 Playoffs

The NFL Playoffs are upon us, and that means another chance for fantasy football fun. To assist you in your pursuit of fun and, hopefully, winning a little cash, I have created playoff fantasy football rankings. Our playoff projection model serves as the baseline for my rankings. The model accounts for player roles and each team's likelihood of advancing in each round, based on Super Bowl odds.

Now, onto some player notes and strategy …

Matthew Stafford | QB | Rams – Josh Allen was the QB1 this season, averaging 22.8 fantasy PPG and offers a nuclear ceiling thanks to his dual-threat ability. Still, Stafford locked down the QB2 spot with 20.6 points per game and provides better Super Bowl odds (+425 vs. +1000). With the second-best Super Bowl odds and the potential to play four games, Stafford is Dwain’s QB1. The Rams' most likely Round 2 matchup is the Seahawks, but the Packers are 1.5-point favorites over the Bears. If Green Bay wins, they would face Seattle in Round 2, while the Rams would play the winner of the Eagles-49ers matchup.

Woody Marks | RB | Texans – Marks hasn't capitalized on his opportunities in a big way, but the team remains committed to him as the clear-cut RB1. In Week 18, before resting with C.J. Stroud in the second half, Marks notched a 70% snap share, 63% attempt share and a 70% route participation rate. The rookie back has reached a 60% or better snap share in five of his last six healthy games. What can I say? I am a sucker for Utilization. I have Marks ranked seven spots ahead of his Underdog ADP.

Zach Charbonnet | RB | Seahawks – Charbonnet has averaged 15.9 points over the last four weeks, leading the Seahawks backfield with a 55% snap share. While the rushing attempts remain closely split with Kenneth Walker III (48% vs. 45%), Charbonnet is the preferred passing-game option (47% vs. 35% route participation) and is gobbling up high-leverage opportunities. Charbonnet has accounted for 95% of the two-minute offense snaps and 83% of the short-yardage snaps. Walker is going ahead of Charbonnet in Underdog drafts, but I have the two ranked back-to-back with Charbonnet in the lead.

Puka Nacua | WR | Rams – Nacua projects for more points than any other player in our playoff model, with 58.9 PPR points. The Rams have been shaky over the last month, but oddsmakers still have them as the second-most likely team to make the Super Bowl. This is a big deal. The Rams offer odds comparable to those of the No. 1 seeds and could play an extra game. Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite over the Panthers in Round 1. Nacua was the WR1 in fantasy with 23.4 PPG this season and is set up well for playoff contests.

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Let’s close out the week with some Fantasy Life Trivia. But first, let’s take a look at yesterday’s question and answer: NOW TIME FOR TODAY’S QUESTION

Q: Matthew Stafford finished 2025 with 46 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. That made him just the fifth QB in NFL history with at least 40 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in a single season. However, only one quarterback has pulled off the feat multiple times.

A: Aaron Rodgers. Who else could it be but Mr. Efficiency himself? Rodgers did it in 2011, 2016 and 2020, and he took home the MVP award in two of those seasons. Jackson did it just last year, and like Rodgers in 2016, he ultimately came up short in the MVP voting. Burrow also did it in 2024, albeit for a subpar Bengals’ squad. Brady is the only one of these passers to crack the 50-touchdown plateau with fewer than 10 picks, which he did in his legendary 2007 campaign.

Now Time For Friday Fantasy Life Trivia

Q: Father Time may be undefeated, but Derrick Henry is giving him a run for his money. King Henry the season with 1,595 rushing yards while averaging 5.2 yards per carry at 31 years old. He also had more than 1,000 rushing yards and an average of at least 5.0 yards per carry last season, which is basically unheard of at his advanced age. Before Henry, the last running back to meet both thresholds at 30 or older was this running back, who also did it while playing for the Ravens:

  • Mark Ingram

  • Jamal Lewis

  • Priest Holmes

  • Willis McGahee

Check out tomorrow’s Watercooler for the answer.

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Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

✍️ There are still open contests for playoff best ball on Underdog … and Pete has your guide on how to win.

🚀 Does any QB have a higher ceiling than Josh Allen in the playoffs?

🦁 Are Sonic and Knuckles headed for a breakup? Say it ain’t so …

👀 Wild Card Weekend DFS is here … Is D’Andre Swift the cheap steal of the week?

🤔 18 of the 32 picks in the 2026 draft are set. Where is your team drafting?

🐬 Another head coach gets the boot … Mike McDaniel is open to work.

🪓 There IS a path to drafting JSN in a Guilloteenie … here’s how.

⬇️⬆️ Who were the biggest overperformers and underperformers at WR in 2025?

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