☢️ The Team Playing A Dangerous Game

Let Jordan Love cook...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Best Buy:

The Jets are really going for it...for better or worse.

On Wednesday, Dwain wrote about the possibility of Aaron Rodgers getting traded and highlighted the Jets as an ideal landing spot.

Well, yesterday, New York made a big move (in their mind) toward landing Rodgers by hiring Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator.

Hackett, of course, is familiar with Rodgers from their time together in Green Bay, and it's literally the only thing on his resume after a disastrous season with the Broncos.

He finished his short tenure as head coach with a dismal 4-11 record and was fired after an embarrassing 51-14 Christmas Day loss to a patchwork Los Angeles Rams squad who was in their "yolo phase" with Baker Mayfield.

Hackett, hilariously, was initially hired by the Broncos to lure Rodgers to Denver, but ultimately ended up with Russell Wilson instead.

I don't blame the Jets for pulling out all the stops to land a top QB this offseason. If I spent a year watching the unholy triumvirate of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White faff about, I'd be desperate for an upgrade too.

Still, it is impossible to sell a Hackett hire as anything other than a recruitment carrot, and there isn't anything concrete to indicate that Rodgers even wants to play with him.

For the sake of Garrett Wilson, I do hope the Jets land Rodgers. But the comedy of another Hackett swing and a miss to land Rodgers would be a pretty hilarious consolation prize.

‼️ Oh Sh*t, The Super Bowl’s On Valentine’s Day Weekend

Does that mean anything to you?

If it doesn’t, get all your Super Bowl necessities at Best Buy.

Nothing says “I love me” like an 85” big screen.

And if it does mean something to you, get your Valentine something at Best Buy— along with all your Super Bowl essentials.

It’s going to be a passion-filled weekend, make sure you’re ready for it.

Oh ya… make sure you’re ready for Valentine’s Day too...

🦶 An update on Mahomes from practice. He'll be doing backflips by Saturday at this rate.

🔒 The Panthers land their head coach. Tough break for Steve Wilks.

🤞 Can the 49ers make it lucky number 13? Hope we didn't jinx it...

🐎 Where will Sean Payton land? Here's a possible clue.

🎀 Who should win offensive rookie of the year? JJ makes a good point.

🤑 Who are people betting on for Eagles-Niners? Some interesting notes here.

🤣 The Colts head coaching search is nonserious. C'mon, Irsay.

The Playoffs are rolling and the Conference Championships are here. In that spirit, Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💰 George Kittle Most Receiving Yards - 49ers @ Eagles (+800)

Kittle has led the 49ers in receiving yards in three of their last six games and yet, curiously, comes in with the largest odds in this market. He’s not the yards-after-the-catch machine that Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel is, but he’s also been the 49ers' best downfield receiver averaging 19.0 yards per target over his last two starts.

Taking a 49er in this category means we also have to fade big games from the Eagles WRs, but the 49ers stand as +2.5 road underdogs and are more likely to be in a pass-heavy game script at some point. Philadelphia has also been regressing against TEs and last week allowed backup Lawrence Cager to post eight catches for 69 yards.

With Kittle dominating the downfield looks and in a plus matchup, he’s worth a flyer at the highest odds available in this specialty market.

💰 Joe Mixon under 85.5 rush/receiving yards (-115)

Mixon was a pivotal figure last week, but his 123-yard game looks to have inflated his props for the Conference Final. Mixon enters this game having gone under this 85.5 total in 10 of 17 starts this season and was on an 0-3 streak against this number prior to his breakout against Buffalo.

Also working against Mixon is the fact the Bengals seem keen on keeping Samaje Perine involved, who played on 44% of the snaps and took 12 touches last week – which was his most in a game where Mixon was healthy all season.

Mixon’s combined rush/receiving projection this week on Fantasy Life has him set at just 73.0 combined yards, giving us a solid 13.0-yard edge. He’s a good fade candidate against a Chiefs defense that should be focused on limiting the Bengals on the ground.

💰 Bengals -6.5 & over 40.5 points (+333) (Parlay)

Cincinnati has won 12 of 13 games and ten games in a row. Five of their last six wins have come by more than a TD, and they’re also 13-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record.

Given the injury issues facing Patrick Mahomes, looking for ways to play for a bigger Cincinnati outcome isn’t a terrible idea. In this scenario, we still get the Bengals under the key number of 7.0 in terms of spread while also getting a much better target for our over. If you think Cincinnati will dominate, the market is ripe with solid offerings like this one that supports our thesis.

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Dwain is here to tackle the Rams...

🐏 Team Summary

The Rams got the fairy tale ending they hoped for with a Super Bowl win after going all-in on Matthew Stafford in 2021. The former No. 1 overall pick helped elevate their offense from 23.3 points per game (22nd) to 27.0 per game (6th), and Stafford and Cooper Kupp drove defensive coordinators mad.

Life sure comes at you fast – that feels like five years ago after watching the 2022 Rams finish 27th in scoring (18.1 per game) and 28th in average scoring margin (-4.5). Unfortunately, the draft capital used to acquire Stafford is one of the primary barriers to improving their roster for next season; they don’t have a first-round pick in 2023.

The Rams are also cap-strapped, projecting to be $11M over the estimated $225M threshold for 2023 due to some huge star contracts and free agency missteps, like giving Allen Robinson a three-year $46.5M contract last offseason. The current iteration of their roster looks like a DFS scrubs and studs lineup, with six players accounting for ~53% of their cap number, leading to rumors that Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and Leonard Floyd are on the trade block.

Without much wiggle room under the cap or firepower to reload in the draft, this feels like an offseason that could be more about addition by subtraction. That means much of how we view the 2023 version of this offense comes down to maximizing what they already have.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

🙏🏻 Pray for Health

This isn’t a creative or hot take, but it is rooted in reality. The Rams ran bad in the injury department in 2022, especially on offense. They had multiple starters miss significant portions of the season.

After the loss of Andrew Whitworth to retirement, the Rams' offensive line woes amplified thanks to extended injuries to their starting tackle and center. In 2021, the team boasted the fifth-best protection unit, allowing pressure on only 24% of dropbacks. However, in 2022, they allowed the eighth-most at 32%.

The passing game was out of rhythm due to the pressure, and they could never get all their complementary pieces on the field simultaneously. Early in the season, they were missing their field stretcher in Van Jefferson, and later in the year, they were without their chain movers, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The glass-half-full view on the Rams’ offense is that the 2023 version will be very similar to the 2021 team that finished sixth in scoring. Kupp will be a high-end WR1 regardless of how the offseason goes, but guys like Cam Akers could drastically outpace ADP in an offense with an elevated scoring ceiling.

👐 Get Something Out of Allen Robinson II

Last offseason, the Rams signed Robinson to a three-year $46.5M contract that doesn’t have an out until after the 2023 season. So the Rams are likely stuck with the 30-year-old WR whose average target share (16%) and yards per route (0.93) fell to career lows.

In the three seasons before joining the Rams, Robinson delivered 26%, 24%, and 17% target shares after adjusting for games missed. There is a chance that Robinson has simply hit a cliff over the past two seasons – it can happen at his age. However, the coaching staff also didn’t do a good job of getting the veteran into a position to succeed.

Historically, Robinson has been a fierce competitor on routes toward the middle of the field. In 2019 and 2020, he delivered 4.76 YPRR on slant routes and 2.99 YPRR on crossing routes. Unfortunately, only 4% of his routes were slants and just 7% were crossing routes.

While there is a chance Robinson is washed, the Rams don’t have many options. To have any chance of resurrecting his career, Sean McVay and company must find ways to play to Robinson’s strengths.

Robinson’s high-end WR2 days are gone, but he will likely be a late pick in drafts next summer, and with the right offensive tweaks, he could find his way back into the WR3 conversation.

💪 Draft Offensive Lineman in Rounds 2 and 3

One of the quickest ways to get this offense back on track is by giving Stafford more time and allowing McVay to unlock portions of the playbook that were off-limits late in 2022 due to protection challenges.

While getting Allen and Noteboom back will help the offensive line, the starting lineup only has two linemen with a PFF grade of 65 or higher. Only one lineman ranks in the top 20 at their position (Rob Havenstein).

Los Angeles must create a more competitive environment. Either the rookies will come in and earn starting jobs, or they will push the veterans to play at a higher level to remain on the field. Whoever doesn’t win the job becomes the much-needed depth the team lacked last season.

Based on the latest consensus big boards, the Rams should have quality options available at Pick 36, with offensive tackles Dawand Jones (Ohio State), Darnell Wright (Tennessee), and Cody Mauch (North Dakota State) likely on the board. Mauch and Wright are the No. 43 and 44 prospects on Mike Renner’s big board. If the Rams like all three players and each are available at their pick, they could trade down and accumulate additional draft capital.

Every Sunday we'll highlight an interesting matchup you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Sam...

🔥 Hayden Hurst @ KC

The Conference Championship games are set, and I think we got it right this season. Each team feels like it belongs.

There will be no shortage of star power, but I’m looking at a potentially underrated option with a strong matchup: TE Hayden Hurst.

The veteran, former first-round pick has played well this year. Courtesy of PFF, Hurst ran routes on 92% of his snaps (TE6). He also finished as the TE3 in contested catch rate and had one of the lowest drop rates among qualifying TEs.

Strong, physical, and making the most of his opportunities. You love to see it.

Hurst is riding his most productive three-game stretch. He’s essentially been the No. 2 option for QB Joe Burrow since Week 18.

It’s a race for second as WR Ja’Marr Chase has racked up a 30% target share in that timeframe. Still, it’s encouraging to see an athletic playmaker like Hurst peak during the most important weeks of the season.

Additional metrics back this up.

Since Week 18, Hurst has run 37.8% of his routes from the slot. That represents a significant jump from his average of 26.5% prior to Week 18. The team’s concerted effort to reduce his inline snaps and get him out over the middle of the field is paying dividends.

The health of QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) will dominate headlines this weekend, and rightfully so, but the Chiefs' defense is going to have its hands full against Cincinnati.

Per our NFL DvP tool, the Chiefs' defense struggled across the board this season. Here’s how they ranked against opposing positions:

• QB - 30th

• RB - 19th

• WR - 26th

• TE - 19th

Having the top scoring offense can mask a multitude of issues on defense.

BetMGM has the Bengals at -1.5 with an over/under of 47.

In his Utilization Report, Dwain McFarland provides additional context about why Hurst is an “upgrade” this week. He’s heating up at the right time, which bodes well for Cincinnati.