👿 A Star RB Is PISSED!

We need a podcast with Lamar and Ekeler...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Fantasy Life Store:

"Punched in the face"

"Disrespected"

Those aren't, in fact, the words of a boxer. Those are from Chargers star RB Austin Ekeler, who appeared on Sirius XM radio yesterday to vent about his current contract situation with the Chargers.

Long story short: he's pissed.

This dynamic has been developing over the past few weeks after his contract extension talks stalled out with Los Angeles and he received permission to seek a trade (a request the team granted).

Listening to Ekeler talk, it's clear that in addition to feeling like he's earned a big contract, he feels hurt with how the Chargers have handled this. You can tell he wants to move on to a team where he feels more wanted:

Ekeler certainly deserves a raise for how well he's performed for the Chargers since signing a 4-year, $24,500,000 contract in 2020. He's improved each season, including a career year in 2022:

The problem for Ekeler, though, is that he's in his late twenties and year-after-year the NFL continues to put less of a value on RBs, especially older ones.

He should be earning more than what the top free agent RBs like Miles Sanders and David Montgomery received (around $6,000,000 per year), but it's probably not in the Charger's best interest to back the Brinks truck up in this spot with a constant stream of cheap RBs available in FA and the draft.

Nothing seems imminent on the trade front right now, although maybe something heats up during the NFL draft. We'll keep you posted...

What follows is the first edition of Ian's 2023 fantasy football WR tiers. The players are ranked in order inside of the specific tiers; just realize the disparity is far wider between tiers than individual rankings. Current Underdog Fantasy ADP and specific pick number are also noted.

Yes, the NFL season doesn’t start for basically another six months.

Also yes, fantasy football never sleeps and it’s always a great day to be great.

Check out Fantasy Life’s ADP tool for updated average draft positions throughout the offseason.

🏆 Tier 1: Griddy

⚓ WR1: Vikings Justin Jefferson

• Underdog ADP: WR1 (1.1)

Key question: Just how special have Jefferson’s first three seasons been?

Pretty, pretty, pretty special. Arguably the best in NFL history:

• Receptions: 324 (No. 1)

• Receiving yards: 4,825 (No. 1)

• Receiving touchdowns: 25 (tied for No. 25)

• PPR points: 973.3 (No. 1)

• PPR points per game: 19.5 (No. 3)

The NFL’s reigning king in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809), Jefferson has the requisite combination of high-end volume and elite talent to stand tall as the overall fantasy WR1 entering 2023.

Seriously: How is any mere mortal supposed to guard this guy?

🐅 WR2: Bengals Ja'Marr Chase

• Underdog ADP: WR2 (2.3)

Key question: Is Chase’s volume okay when Tee Higgins is also involved?

Absolutely. While things were virtually dead even from a pure target perspective through 20 full games together, Chase really took the lead in a major way in 2022.

Overall, Chase has posted a 174-2623-21 receiving line on 258 targets in 30 full games alongside Higgins (151-2179-14 on 227 targets) since entering the league in 2021. Hell, Chase nearly had as many targets in 15 total games last season (162) as he did in 21 contests back in 2021 (163).

Chase has an elite workload and ranks fifth in PPR points per game since entering the league behind only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. I’ll happily roll with the Bengals’ 23-year-old stud as my overall WR2 thanks to his objectively superior QB situation compared to each of those aforementioned fellow top dogs.

🥈 Tier 2: Certified kings

🐬WR3: Dolphins Tyreek Hill

• Underdog ADP: WR4 (5.1)

Key question: Is Hill due for more touchdowns?

The legit track star set career-high marks in targets (170), receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710) alike in his first season with the Dolphins; the only “problem” was a relatively middling seven receiving scores.

Hill’s game-by-game route trees look like a maze from one of those old National Geographic magazines you’d scan at the doctor’s office; it’s not like head coach Mike McDaniel isn’t doing enough to maximize the talent here.

Still, Tua Tagovailoa just led the NFL with a 6.3% pass TD rate, plenty of research suggests this rate will dip in a potentially meaningful way in 2022. Overall, 83 QBs have posted a TD rate of at least six percent with a minimum of eight starts since 2000.

Among those who again started eight games the following season: A whopping 62 of 68 signal-callers (91%) saw their rate decline during their encore campaign.

The median (-1.7%) and mean (-1.65%) demonstrate that not every high-efficiency QB completely falls off a cliff the following year, but it’s still tough to be overly optimistic about Tua finding even more success filling up the stat sheet in 2023.

Don’t get it twisted: Hill deserves to be in any conversation surrounding fantasy and real life’s single-best WR, but I’ll take my chances on the former LSU teammates at the top of drafts thanks to their slightly higher scoring ceilings.

🏅 Top 50 prospect rankings. Check out that RB at No. 3.

😴 A sleeper WR prospect who shouldn't be a sleeper. The name is elite, too.

🎯 QB accuracy isn't just about the QB. Check this out.

📈 What happens to ADPs after the draft? Nice piece by NBC Sports Edge's Zachary Krueger.

😎 This rookie WR could be a slot weapon. He's going too late in rookie drafts.

⁉️ No more questions about Lamar Jackson! The Ravens have had enough.

🤩 Look Good, Feel Good, Draft Good

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The NFL Draft is fast approaching, so it's time to dig into the 2023 rookie class. Today Chris Allen profiles a beast at the TE position...

👑 Darnell Washington

• Rookie Draft ADP: 24 (TE3)

• Underdog ADP: 221

Admittedly, I’m a “process over results” guy. It’s not just an ethos for me but also a clothing style. And the process would have me shy away from any TE. But then I saw Darnell Washington at the NFL Combine.

Athletic outliers like Washington should always pique our interest. Despite only accumulating 454 yards in his final collegiate season, he generated the second-most first downs per target (0.51). I have concerns about Washington’s ability to demand looks, but with Day 2 draft potential, his situation may lend itself to fantasy success.

📈 Pros

💪 Monster after the catch

Washington (literally) stands tall at 6’7” and 264 lbs but blazed across Lucas Oil Stadium with a 4.64 40-yard time. He’s a natural at creating after the catch. And his innate ability to flow through traffic (or perform his best Juggernaut impression) earned him 7.6 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception per PFF (second-most in the class). However, there’s more to his YAC-ability than just athleticism.

The #process points us toward WRs with a TE designation. Routes and targets are our strongest indicators, but so is alignment. TEs placed in wide receiver positions (like in the slot or out wide) perform like, well, wide receivers. But Washington found his own way.

Washington had the fifth-highest rate of in-line snaps for his class (66.9%). He (respectfully) asked pass rushers to rethink their assignment (third-highest PFF grade) while having a higher forced missed tackle rate (12.8%) than consensus TE1 Michael Mayer (11.9%). With Washington already proficient as a blocker, his versatility as an explosive receiver should net him snaps regardless of landing spot.

🚀 Converts opportunity into production

Washington being an efficient receiver feels like an obvious leap after I just highlighted his YAC potential. But Georgia’s TE2 played behind Brock Bowers while tethered to the line of scrimmage. Luckily, Washington was productive when Stetson Bennett looked his way.

The former Bulldog was one of just two TEs in this class that was top seven in average depth of target (aDOT) and yards per route run (YPRR). Washington’s final-season 10.7 aDOT shows the exceptional athlete could get open downfield, while his 1.84 YPRR emphasizes a target-to-target consistency to his game. So, even with a limited role, Washington can put up spike weeks for fantasy managers.

📉 Cons

👻 Couldn't stand out

Ironically, a player like Washington, at 6’7”, couldn’t stand out on the field. Hopefully, that joke didn’t go over your head. Fortunately, Darnell’s too tall to miss a bit of dad humor, but coaches and GMs won’t miss the 60 targets on his collegiate resume. And, as I mentioned before, his teammate in the same position outplayed him, so he lags behind the rest of the class.

In a packed TE class, Washington’s inability to separate from his teammates makes breaking away from his peers hard. The disparity between the two and his scant portion of the Georgia offense may cause some front offices to focus on what he can’t do (yet) compared to his current skillset.

👑 Fantasy Impact

At first glance, Washington’s inability to earn targets and in-line usage makes him a better real football player than a fantasy asset. However, we can’t overlook his efficiency and knack for creating big plays with the ball in his hands.

Ultimately, Washington’s landing spot will determine his value in fantasy drafts. He doesn’t even have an ADP and sits in dart-throw territory if you prefer three TE builds. He would be best fit on an offense with at least two established receivers but could earn snaps in-line while developing his route running.