👋 The Star QB Who Almost Retired

Mock drafts vs. mock turtlenecks, who ya got???

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by 360 Wall Street:

It really shouldn’t come as a surprise that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa considered retiring from football after the 2022 season. And yet, it still is jarring to hear him say it in his own words:

Tua ended up playing just 13 games last year due to numerous head injuries and concussions that occurred in Week 3 vs. the Bills, Week 4 vs. the Bengals, and Week 16 vs. the Packers. But yesterday, he told reporters that he was medically cleared to play after seeing multiple specialists.

The Dolphins, clearly aware of the chances that he might hang it up, went out and secured a very capable backup in Mike White as insurance during free agency. However, White will only be insurance, and nothing more if Tua sticks to his word.

He seems pretty steadfast in his intention to play in 2023:

Miami would be very wise to beef up Tua’s protection in the draft, but there’s no reason to think he can’t replicate what he did last year when he vaulted himself into the MVP discussion while finishing third in QBR.

I’ve been scooping up a ton of him in early best ball drafts especially when I can pair him with an early-round selection of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I think he should be in the QB7-8 range along with Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, which means we are getting a nice discount at his current QB11 price tag:

Like so many players in the NFL, Tua is one hit away from never playing again. That’s the sobering reality of the game of football. But it’s impossible not to be excited about seeing him out there in 2023, and I’m drafting accordingly.

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With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, Dwain has been hard at work building out the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model to help us identify the best prospects based on historical collegiate data and expected draft capital. Today, we dive into RBs.

Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. Therefore, we tested several advanced data metrics to see how they correlated with fantasy points and integrated the top options into our model.

While this limits our college data set to prospects since 2017, our model is also rooted in established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.

Of course, this combination doesn’t make our model perfect (no model is perfect), but we think it does make it pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.

Data and metrics utilized:

• Projected draft capital (Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database)

• Career adjusted total yards per team attempt (ATYTA): rushing + receiving yards *2 / team attempts

• Best season adjusted total yards per team attempt

• Career explosive rush rate (10-plus yard carries)

• Career missed tackles forced rate

• Career average yards after contact

• Rookie-season age

• Weight

🥇 Tier 1

Bijan Robinson | Texas | 5’11 and 215 lbs

• Fantasy Life RB Super Model: 100th percentile

• Underdog ADP: RB5

• Rookie Rank: RB1, No. 1 overall (Per Fantasy Pros Rookie Rankings)

No other RB since 2017 has ranked higher in the RB Super Model, with Robinson garnering a 100th-percentile score. Even when removing projected draft capital from the model, Robinson has the No. 1 score on record. Every back who has eclipsed the 90th percentile has delivered at least one top-12 fantasy finish.

While RBs might not matter in 2023, most teams have a very high grade on the junior back, and the only debate about his first-round status is how high he might climb. Daniel Jeremiah has Robinson graded as his No. 3 prospect overall, and Dane Brugler has him at No. 6.

The former five-star recruit’s 2.51 adjusted total yards per team attempt (ATYTA) for his career rank in the 80th percentile, and his best season (2.82) ATYTA comes in at the 70th percentile. He averaged 136 total yards over his three seasons at the University of Texas. Since the 2017 class, the list of backs to average reach 135 total yards over at least 20 games reads like a Who’s Who list of fantasy football studs.

• Jonathan Taylor: 160

• Aaron Jones: 151

• Kareem Hunt: 142

• Dalvin Cook: 142

• Leonard Fournette: 135

• Christian McCaffrey: 135

The 21-year-old was a nightmare to bring down, thanks to a unique blend of agility and power. Per PFF data, he delivered a 0.29 missed tackle per attempt rate — the best career mark on record. His 4.40 career average yards after contact is the third-highest in the class and ranks in the 70th percentile overall. Lance Zierlein compares Robinson stylistically to Josh Jacobs.

Although much of his damage came via the run game, Robinson was also a plus in the passing attack. His career 49% route participation is the third-best mark in the class.

Robinson is the consensus No. 1 dynasty selection for good reason — he is a generational talent. He checks all the boxes as a runner, receiver and playmaker, which gives him a 400-touch upside as early as Year 1. Best ball drafters aren’t shy about their feelings towards the young stud, with Robinson already locked in as a Round 2 selection as the RB5.

🥈 Tier 2

Jahmyr Gibbs | Alabama | 5’9 and 199 lbs

• Fantasy Life RB Super Model: 83rd percentile

• Underdog ADP: RB18

• Rookie Rank: RB2

  No. 3 overall (prospects to rank in the 80th percentile or higher have generated a top-12 RB season in their first three seasons. Gibbs’ projected draft capital has fallen some since the end of the 2022 season, but he still projects in the early second round as the No. 2 back in the class.

The former four-star recruit began his career at Georgia Tech before transferring to Alabama for his final season as a junior. While he never established himself as an every-down back, Gibbs was a very good all-around option with a 2.41 career ATYTA (76th percentile).

He created a 10-plus yard rush on 15% of his carries, which is right around the average, but his 0.22 missed tackles forced rate falls in the 69th percentile. He is a real problem at the second and third levels of the defense, where he creates extra yards with his elusiveness.

While his career route participation was slightly lower than expected at 44%, he was a target magnet. His 25% career TPRR ranks No. 1 in the class and is the fifth-highest mark recorded for backs with at least 250 routes.

• Alvin Kamara: 33% career TPRR

• Taquan Mizzell: 30%

• Christian McCaffrey: 27%

• Jaylen Samuels: 27%

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 25%

Gibbs’ 2.47 career yards per route run (YPRR) also ranks in similar company, behind just McCaffrey (2.81) and Kamara (2.48). Like McCaffrey, he also operated at a positive average depth of target (aDOT) at 0.9 yards, and 20% of his targets went for 15-plus yards – well above the 15% average for qualifying RBs.

Zierlein comps Gibbs to Kamara — a name we have already mentioned a couple of times when reviewing his data profile. Dane Brugler echoed the Kamara comp in The Beast draft guide, as did Daniel Jeremiah. Gibbs might not be a between-the-tackles grinder, but he carries plenty of upside, thanks to his viability in the passing game.

The RB Super Model compares Gibbs closest to McCaffrey on the high-end and Kenneth Gainwell on the lower side of the spectrum when excluding draft capital. When including Gibbs’ current second-round projection, Gainwell falls out of the comp group.

Gibbs has high-end RB1 upside and should be the No. 2 back off the board in rookie drafts. In best ball, he has Year 1 top-12 upside in PPR and half-PPR formats, but his landing spot will matter. Preferably, he lands somewhere without an established passing-down back.

🔥 The Nuk trade rumors are heating up. Here’s another big clue.

🚀 The QB-WR duo we can’t wait to see in action. Can’t wait.

🏃Rushing QBs are a fantasy cheat code. Who’s No. 1 in the draft class?

🃏 DeAndre Hopkins wouldn't be a good poker player. Sheesh.

🐎 This RB’s ready to dominate in 2023. Good news for the Colts.

🤔 Trouble in Buffalo? A WR no-shows voluntary workouts.

📈 The buzziest rookie WR out there. He’s taking visits every other day.

💥 NFL mock draft with wild deals. Trades for every Round 1 pick via Bill Barnwell.