Sneak This RB On Your Roster

Guy behind the guy ...

Fantasy Life
Dec. 5, 2024
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By the time you are reading this, it’s safe to assume that Isaac Guerendo is no longer available in your league.

Hopefully you snagged him—it’s rare to get a potential league-winning waiver add this late into the season—but if not, I have a consolation prize for you.

And it’s the guy behind the guy …

Peter Overzet

His name is Izzy Abanikanda and the Niners just signed him in an effort to shore up their depleted RB room.

Guerendo will obviously get the first crack to lead the backfield down the stretch for San Francisco (more on him later), but I think it’s wise to add Izzy for a couple of reasons …

1) Contingent upside. At the very least, Izzy is now one Guerendo injury away from being the lead back on the Niners. A premium handcuff RB should always be rostered and Abanikanda now fits that bill.

2) Ambiguity. Guerendo is a very exciting player (and one of the most athletic RBs in the league), but Izzy is not too far behind him despite the Jets discarding him. He tallied 1,500 yards in his final season at Pitt. He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 216 pounds. He was selected in a similar range of the draft.

Because all of the active backs on this roster (including Patrick Taylor) are largely unproven, I think it would be a mistake to assume one of them is going to vacuum up 100% of the touches.

Instead, embrace the uncertainty and take some stabs on the new guy behind the guy (and Taylor if you are in a super-deep league).

Lord knows it wouldn’t be the first time a backup Niners RB made an impact …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Dwain’s Week 14 Rankings: Two RB Upgrades

  2. Watercooler: Diontae gets suspended

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RANKINGS

Week 14 Rankings: RBs to Upgrade

  • by Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our lineups for the week, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 14 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

Note: As you read through my rankings, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

Since the Zack Moss injury, only Alvin Kamara has a higher Utilization Score than Brown (9.6).

Note: If you have not seen the weekly range slider in the Season Stats view, check it out—we just launched the new feature today. You can now isolate results to whatever range you want to analyze.

Over that span, Brown ranks second to Saquon Barkley in fantasy points per game with 22.4. Yeah, that is a lot of points per game, and now he gets an early Christmas gift with a matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (136) and the most touchdowns (1.5) on the Week 14 slate.

The Bengals are six-point favorites and claim the second-highest team total (28.3), which means Brown should have ample opportunities to tote the rock. A 150-all-purpose yardage game with two touchdowns is within reach for Brown if he runs pure.

Brown is a SMASH play as the RB2 overall behind only Barkley.

Isaac Guerendo | RB | 49ers

Guerendo steps into the RB1 role for San Francisco against the Bears. The last time we saw the rookie in a near full-time role was Week 8 when he took over for Jordan Mason after an early-game injury. Guerendo delivered 19.2 points that game with a 66% snap share and 8.6 Utilization Score.

It's only one game, but his 62% route participation is notable—he handled all of the two-minute offense and notched a 17% target share with Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk missing. Patrick Taylor was available that game, but played only 6% of snaps. The 49ers added Israel Abanikanda to the roster this week, but Taylor will likely be Guerendo's primary competition for backfield touches along with Deebo Samuel in Week 14.

The Bears have been a solid defense this year, but teams have found success on the ground. Chicago has allowed the sixth-most yards per game (125), giving up 18 fantasy points per contest. The 49ers are four-point favorites over Chicago and have the eighth-best team total (24.3).

Guerendo UPGRADES to midrange RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside if the 49ers decide to ride the rookie.

RELATED CONTENT

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 Week 14 Start/Sit Analysis … surviving Bye-mageddon 2.

💸 Diontae gets suspended one game … for not wanting to play?

📊 Rest-of-Season rankings update. Waz has you covered.

🤔 Deebo Samuel has been a massive disappointment … confidence meter heading into Week 14.

📝 Lions/Packers game preview. Freedman breaks it down.

🔒️ No more DeVito for now … the Giants announce their Week 14 starter.

🎁 Fantasy Life’s 2024 Holiday gift guide. Lots of good ideas in here.

📣 Tomlin coaching Pickens. Good stuff here.

⚔️ We got you covered tonight … projections for DET/GB.

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