🙏 A Scary Injury Overshadows TNF

D.J. Moore and Baker Mayfield should prolly start eating breakfast together...

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"It's okay to be wrong."

I remember repeating this — through tears.

"It's okay to be wrong. It's okay to make a mistake."

As a child, I was a perfectionist (still am, I guess…), and whenever I reached the emotional dropoff that inevitably comes with perfectionism, my mom would have me repeat those words.

"It's okay to be wrong. It's okay to be wrong."

This is one of our greatest challenges in DFS. We have a general tendency, as humans, to hide our messes. If we're wrong, we run away from it. And if we think we have a chance of being wrong, we often run away from that as well.

But success in DFS is about embracing risk — about being willing to "look dumb" for the decisions we have made, being willing to be different to finish first.

Like most DFS weeks, Week 4 offers something unique. And like most DFS weeks, understanding what makes the slate unique can dramatically boost our chances of finishing in first place.

"JM, what's so unique about this slate?"

I'll show you.

Or rather, I'll let the numbers show you.

Here are some of the offense-vs-offense matchups we have on tap this week, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA:

• #1 offense vs #6 offense

• #3 offense vs #8 offense

• #4 offense vs #5 offense

• #7 offense vs #12 offense

"Okay. Cool. But what's unique about that?"

Of course, this isn't the only week we'll have this year with good offenses playing one another; but when we open the doors and look at the names behind those numbers, we might be surprised by what we find:

• Ravens (1) vs Bills (6)

• Browns (3) vs Falcons (8)

• Eagles (4) vs Jaguars (5)

• Lions (7) vs Seahawks (12)

Yes, the Chargers are playing "the lowly Texans." The "high-scoring Cardinals" are playing the "pathetic Panthers." The Broncos and Raiders are clashing in a potential shootout. And maybe the early-season metrics are lying to us, sure.

Maybe Love Smith's Texans (ninth in pass defense DVOA; 30th against the run — where the Chargers rank 31st on offense) will get trounced this week. Maybe the Cardinals (21st in offensive DVOA) will flip the switch during their cross-country road trip. And maybe the "play for the fourth quarter" Broncos (thanks, Nathaniel Hackett) and the down-bad Raiders (the only 0-3 team in the NFL) will produce fireworks into the evening.

❓ Meanwhile: "Browns vs Falcons? Really!?"

And yet, the defenses in this game rank bottom-10 in DVOA (Cleveland 23rd; Atlanta 27th) and bottom-10 in opponent points per drive (Cleveland 23rd; Atlanta 31st). Each team also ranks bottom-five in both pass rate over expectation (PROE) and red zone PROE, giving us a setup where we can attack a high-total game with unique builds expecting these teams to lean on the ground game when most people think of the aerial attack if focusing on a particular game environment.

It's easy to embrace what feels comfortable to us — to hold tightly to what we "know," and to argue against evidence that supports a different thesis.

We're willing to be wrong "making the right decision" (the offenses/teams we "know" are good), but it's far less comfortable to risk being wrong with the Falcons, Browns, Jaguars, or Seahawks.

But a wise woman once told me it's okay to be wrong.

This is a great week to put that theory to the test.

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🚩 Uh oh, the Saints have a problem. Update on their QB situation.

🚀 The most underrated team in football. Crazy, isn't it?

😕 Trouble in Carolina. D.J. Moore and Baker Mayfield are clearly not on the same page.

⬆️ This rookie WR is set for another big day. It's more than just his air yards this time. 

🕵️ Don't try to spy on the Dolphins. Mike McDaniel is one step ahead of you.

⛪ Elijah Moore truthers are working through it. Lol.

🥪 The only Russell Wilson commercial you need to watch. Let's ride.

⚖️ Will Alvin Kamara be suspended? An update on the timeline.

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💸 Broncos Moneyline (+125)

Nothing confuses me more this week than the line in the Vegas-Denver game. Derek Carr is trending with his worst completion rate of the past five years, despite having faced bottom-five secondaries in Arizona and Tennessee the last two weeks. He’s also produced just a 40% success rate with Davante Adams against those teams.

Meanwhile, Denver’s pressure rate is vastly improved over 2021 and has them in the Top 10 for sacks and sixth in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. 

The Denver offense may be concerning, but Vegas’s pass rush has been a joke. They rank 31st in sack rate through three weeks. The Russell Wilson cooking jokes have also overshadowed the fact Courtland Sutton has been a dominant chain mover. 

The Broncos defense looks like the best unit on the field here by a long shot, and offensively, their top WR has been far more effective than the $140,000,000 man on the other side of the ball. The Broncos stand out as huge value for Week 4.

💸 Zach Wilson over 205.5 passing yards (-117)

Quarterbacks against the Steelers this year have averaged 270 yards and 39.66 pass attempts per game. Those are massive numbers considering the 205.5 passing yard prop on Zach Wilson this week that we can find on BetMGM.

Pittsburgh’s pressure rate has also dropped without TJ Watt in the lineup, and they allowed a 109.5 passer rating last week to Jacoby Brissett. 

Through three weeks, both the Jets and Steelers also rank top 12 in adjusted pace, with the Jets leading the way at an adjusted 25.2 secs per play. Even if Wilson shows some rust, there’s every chance the pace of this game pushes Wilson to the over (on a very soft total) by the game's end. 

💸 Elijah Moore over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)

As for Moore, he’s coming off a 10-target game and gets a quarterback who targeted him on over 25% of his routes last year. This feels like a great spot to buy the overs on the Jets QB/WR duo, and for single-game parlays, pairing Wilson and Moore overs together this week makes for a great way to start off tickets.

💸 Top 3 ATS

• Broncos +3.0 -110

• Colts -3.5 -115

• Jets +3.5 -115

💸 Top 3 Props

• Matt Ryan under 234.5 passing yards -115

• Zach Wilson over 205.5 passing yards -117 

• Carson Wentz under 231.5 passing yards -187

Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!

Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice. 

After Week 3, I’m eating a heaping plate of crow. I suggested you stream Wil Lutz last week, and it was an unmitigated disaster. For that, I am sorry. Although it is more about attempts than makes/misses, it’s still incredibly frustrating, and I’m not going to placate you by saying “process over results.” We just gotta keep moving forward. 

🦵️ Austin Seibert (Linda's Rank: K6)

Week 4 brings some juicy matchups for streaming options. Namely, Austin Seibert, who is rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues. The Lions are currently 4-point favorites against the Seahawks and have the third-highest implied team total this week. Detroit has the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL through three weeks, behind only Baltimore. Plus, Seattle is a bottom-10 NFL team in points allowed. The opportunity will be there for Seibert, but he’ll have to take advantage of that opportunity and split the uprights. I’ve got Seibert significantly higher in my rankings than consensus, but that’s just the way she goes. Seibert has missed the last two days of practice, but he should be on track to play.

🦵️ Jake Elliott (Linda's Rank: K3)

This is like the third week in a row I’ve singled out the Eagles kicker, Jake Elliott. He hasn’t been world-beating to start the season, putting up weekly point totals of 8, 6, and 6, respectively. 

He’s rostered in 39% of leagues on Yahoo! This week, Philadelphia gets Jacksonville at home. Philly is a 6.5-point favorite and has the second-highest implied point total of this weekend's slate of games. The Jags have clearly taken a step forward on offense and defense this season, boasting the sixth-best red-zone touchdown percentage allowed through three weeks. The Eagles are bound to score points, but the Jaguars' red-zone defense should lend itself to field goal attempts for Elliott. 

You can find my Week 4 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.