😭 The Saga That Won't End

Someone take the checkbook away from Bill Belichick…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Mad Props Madness:

The news is still flying fast and furious (including a big free agent signing of our own!), so let’s dive into it…

😡 The endless Aaron Rodgers saga

Not since LeBron’s “The Decision” in 2010 have we seen an athlete milk a team change to the extent that Aaron Rodgers is making a meal of his impending departure from the Packers.

This is now the third straight day we’ve led the newsletter with Rodgers drama, so maybe in the words of Taylor Swift, “It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me,”
but nevertheless…we did get a concrete update on the situation yesterday after Aaron appeared on the Pat McAfee show to clear the air:

That feels pretty definitive.

That said, we still aren’t likely to get a true conclusion to this endless saga anytime soon. The Packers and Jets are trying to negotiate a trade, and nothing appears imminent.

The Packers want multiple first-round picks (and I’d like my small baby to sleep through the night, alas) but have zero leverage after fully severing ties from Rodgers and publicly acknowledging that Jordan Love is their QB of the future.

In the meantime, everyone had some fun #online yesterday, including the Jets’ social team.

Well, maybe not everyone. Schefter had a rough day:

😆 We couldn’t help ourselves tho…

On sale now!

✂️ The Zeke era is over in Dallas

I never thought I’d see the day, but after seven long years, the Cowboys have officially parted ways with RB Ezekiel Elliott.

Zeke had a great tenure with the Cowboys (10,598 total yards and 72 total TDs) but regressed massively as a rusher in 2022 in a way that was actively hurting the team’s offense.

I know there is a lot of excitement for Tony Pollard’s role to expand post-Zeke, but I actually think this is a slightly worse outcome for him. Instead of wrestling with a washed-up Elliott for carries, he’ll now likely face competition from a more-talented FA or rookie.

Still, I have no problem drafting Pollard where he is currently going in Underdog drafts, although this number could change quickly:

For more fantasy fallout from Free Agency, read below for Matt Lamarca’s piece on Miles Sanders and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and be sure to check out our comprehensive tracker of every move:

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🤔 Are the Broncos cleaning house? Some wild rumors flying.

🏎️ Uh oh, Tampa Bay. This is one way to describe the change at QB.

📺 Free-agency roundup. Ian Hartitz & Dwain McFarland reunite.

❓ Where should Aaron Rodgers go in fantasy drafts? Honestly, this isn’t a bad price.

📈 Largest free-agent TE contracts since 2016. Oh no, Patriots.

🥶 New England did Jakobi Meyers dirty. This honestly makes no sense.

💗 Love Jameis Winston. Respect.

With the Combine behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class. Today Dwain discusses the pros and cons of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a dynasty prospect and fantasy contributor.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Rookie Draft ADP: 2

• Underdog ADP: 55

📋 Summary

Smith-Njigba is typically one of the top three WRs off the board in NFL mock drafts, going in the mid-to-late first round along with Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison.

Despite playing with NFL-caliber teammates, he delivered an eye-popping 1,595 yards in his sophomore campaign, accounting for a team-high 32% of receiving yards. He primarily operated from the slot, where he attacked the intermediate areas of the field and gobbled up yards after the catch (YAC).

Unfortunately, the 6’1”, 196-pound WR was injured early in the 2022 season, cutting short the amount of data and film we can analyze. There are questions about his top-end speed, but most analysts consider him a first-round NFL talent. He will only be 21 this season.

👍 Pros

🎯 High-end Target Earner

As a sophomore in 2021, Smith-Njigba garnered a 23% target share for the Buckeyes. While 23% doesn’t seem significant without context, it takes on new meaning once considering his target competition: Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave – both first-round NFL selections. Plus, it was his age-19 season.

The scouting community consistently lauds Smith-Njigba for his ability to uncover in the middle of the field and make the tough catches for his QB.

💪 Big-Play Ability

There are some concerns about Smith-Njigba’s top-end speed in scouting circles, which the film supports. He doesn’t show the next gear to pull away from secondary defenders and can get caught from behind. However, he hasn’t had a problem creating big plays.

He was electric with the ball in his hands in 2021, with a mind-bending 8.8 YAC. The average YAC for a player with his aDOT is 4.6, which JSN almost doubled. Over his career at Ohio State, he delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of his targets, well above the 22% average.

He might not be a burner, but JSN tested exceptionally well in the agility drills (shuttle and 3-cone). We have seen other slot receivers like Cooper Kupp dominate despite lackluster 40-yard-dash times.

While Smith-Njigba operated primarily from the slot, he wasn’t tethered to the line of scrimmage with a super low ADOT. When studying his film, you quickly realize this isn’t just a dink-and-dunk slot option.

Smith-Njigba can work the seams and deep crossing routes regularly – and come down with the contested throw. He was more of an intermediate option with a 9.3 ADOT, and 16% of his targets came on 20-plus-yard throws. His career yards per route run (YPRR) of 3.32 is in the 87th percentile for prospects dating back to the 2017 draft, per PFF data.

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com sees JSN as lacking top-end speed but making a similar impact to Amon-Ra St. Brown at the NFL level – which is another great slot comp, similar to Kupp.

👎 Cons

🚑 Small Sample

You might have noticed by now that most of the data we are referencing is from 2021. That is because Smith-Njigba suffered an injury in early 2022 that limited him to only 40 routes in three games. Having a larger sample would be ideal because it isn’t uncommon for sophomore breakouts to regress in their junior season.

Ultimately, Smith-Njigba’s draft capital can help ease our concerns here. He should go in the first round of the NFL Draft and has a chance to be the No. 1 WR off of the board.

🔮 Fantasy Impact

While NFL circles might be torn on which WR prospect should go first in the draft, fantasy players have already spoken. Smith-Njigba is the No. 2 player off the board in rookie drafts behind Bijan Robinson. Best ball enthusiasts are selecting JSN in the fifth round (WR30) of Big Board drafts on Underdog. The next closest rookie WR is Addison in Round 7 (WR41).

Smith-Njigba is a high-end asset with long-term WR1 upside in dynasty formats – even if he remains a slot WR, given the successes we have seen from players that aren’t low aDOT options at the position. He is my No. 1 WR prospect in the class.

In best ball and redraft formats, JSN is a value as a fifth-round selection, assuming he holds onto his anticipated first-round draft capital. He has carved out targets in a competitive team environment before. Plus, over the last three seasons, we have seen seven out of 16 first-round WRs average 12.5 or more fantasy points per game.

The Free Agency news was still flying on Wednesday with some key fantasy contributors finding new homes. Matt LaMarca looks at three developments from yesterday…

I’m not entirely sure how the Miles Sanders era will be remembered in Philadelphia. He was a vital part of the team’s rushing attack in 2022-23, which ranked first in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA, and he helped lead the team to the Super Bowl. On the other hand, he never had the truly monster season that was anticipated when the team drafted him in second round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

His final season was undoubtedly his best, totalling 1,269 rushing yards to go along with 11 total touchdowns. He wasn’t much of a threat as a pass-catcher, but his rushing production was enough to propel him to RB15 in PPR leagues.

On the surface, moving from the Eagles to the Panthers feels like a downgrade. The Eagles were one of the best offensive teams in football last season, while the Panthers were 27th in offensive DVOA.

However, Sanders should face far less competition for touches in the Panthers backfield. That starts at quarterback, where he’ll no longer have to share touchdowns with Jalen Hurts. Hurts punched in a team-leading 13 scores last year, while Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott combined for an additional seven.

The Panthers could still shock the world by picking Anthony Richardson with the first overall pick, but C.J. Stroud has moved to a pretty significant favorite to be the first pick. Stroud isn’t a horrible athlete, but he’s much more of a pocket passer than Hurts. The other running backs on the roster aren’t particularly intimidating, either.

The Panthers ground attack was also quietly dominant down the stretch. They rushed for at least 169 yards in seven of their final 11 games, and they had at least 223 rushing yards three times. If Sanders can secure a higher percentage of his team’s carries – and possibly even some pass-catching work – this move could be a positive for him for fantasy purposes.

Meanwhile, this move clears the way for Rashaad Penny in Philadelphia. He’ll face a lot of the same concerns as Sanders did last season, but his outlook just got a whole lot rosier. He still has to prove he can stay healthy, but he’s poised to lead a dynamic Eagles’ rushing attack.

❓ JuJu > Jakobi?

A day after losing Jakobi Meyers to the Raiders, the Patriots have landed a new receiver. They’ve reportedly signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a three-year, $33M deal after spending last season in Kansas City. You don’t need to be a mathematician to break that down to $11M per season; the exact same figure that the Raiders gave Meyers.

Meyers didn’t appreciate that the Patriots were willing to go to that figure for JuJu when they weren’t willing to so for him:

The Patriots are notorious for being unable to evaluate talent at the receiver position, and this move is a bit of a head-scratcher. Smith-Schuster had better counting stats than Meyers last season, finishing with 78 catches for 933 yards, but those are pretty disappointing marks as the top receiver in an explosive Chiefs’ offense.

Meyers wasn’t all that far behind Smith-Schuster with 67 catches for 804 yards, despite his team averaging nearly 81 fewer passing yards per game. Over the course of a 17-game season, that’s approximately 1,375 fewer yards to go around for their pass-catchers.

Ultimately, Pro Football Focus graded Meyers as the No. 27 receiver last season, while Smith-Schuster was No. 43. Both players are primarily used as slot receivers, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense why the Pats opted to make this switch.

However, the one area where JuJu fares far better than Meyers is yards after the catch. He averaged 6.4 yards after catch per reception last season, while Meyers was at just 3.5. Smith-Schuster was also fifth in yards after the catch over expectation, trailing only Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Ja’Marr Chase. That’s pretty good company.

The Pats’ receiving corps is still pretty weak on the surface, but Smith-Schuster does give them a bit more explosiveness at the position. It’s a start.

🔒 Commanders and Buccaneers Get Insurance

The Commanders and Buccaneers are ready to hand the keys of their offenses to young signal callers. Kyle Trask will get the nod for the Bucs after sitting behind Tom Brady for the past two years, while Sam Howell will take over for the Commanders in his second professional season. Neither player has seen meaningful NFL action, so there could definitely be some growing pains.

On Wednesday, both teams made sure to bring in some insurance for their young passers.

The Buccaneers agreed to a one-year, $8.5M deal with Baker Mayfield, and they’ll be his fourth team in the past three seasons. Mayfield came out of the gates strong after being drafted first overall by the Browns in 2018, but he has never been able to recapture that magic. His adjusted yards per attempt dipped to just 6.5 last season, the worst mark of his career, and he finished the year as PFF’s No. 37 quarterback. Only Taylor Heinicke and Zach Wilson were worse among qualified passers.

The Commanders brought in Jacoby Brissett, and he was actually pretty impressive while filling in for the Browns while DeShaun Watson served his suspension. He earned the No. 6 grade at QB per PFF, albeit for a 4-7 squad.

Both players will now be in the unenviable position of “competiting” for a QB job that they are very unlikely to win. They are also going to be expected to mentor Trask and Howell, which is something that not every quarterback is interested in. Both Mayfield and Brissett could see game time next season, but their new teams are hoping that their biggest impact comes off the field.