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Rough start ...
Remain patient with the rookie RBs
If you thought things were rough at the QB position as we approach Week 3, wait until we unpack the state of the rookie RBs right now …
Ashton Jeanty, who was a top-15 pick in basically every format, is currently the RB27
Omarion Hampton—a top-50 pick—is the RB44
TreVeyon Henderson (RB36) and RJ Harvey (RB43) have also disappointed relative to their lofty price tags
And don’t even get me started on Kaleb Johnson, who literally has negative yards on the year.
So is it time to panic? Not really …
Two things can be true at the same time here:
1) We need to be patient with the rookies—it’s only been two weeks. We have gotten spoiled with some immediate rookie producers the past couple of years, but in general, we should expect rookies to start slow and see their roles increase as the season progresses.
2) When you spend a top-50 pick on a rookie, you are hoping for some early-season production to help justify that cost.
But let’s not kid ourselves … the thesis of the play when selecting rookies is for that late-season surge in production.
Let’s try to keep our eyes on the literal prize. The goal of fantasy football is to build a superteam that can win the league, and year after year, rookies are key ingredients to superteams.
The challenge, of course, is constructing your teams in a way that can survive these early-season dips—either by building a juggernaut at all of the other positions or by pairing the early-round rookies with veterans like J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams who can buoy you at the start of the season.
If the underlying usage is solid, there’s no reason to panic (yet) … unless we are talking about Johnson, in which case you should definitely panic …
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Editors’ Picks
Week 3 is here. It’s time to get right (or stay right). Start by making sure you catch up on some of the latest and greatest content that you may have missed on FantasyLife.com.
We’re two weeks into the long, grueling season, and we’ve got our rest-of-season rankings updated. Geoff Ulrich highlights some buy-lows, sell-highs, and other players of note in the latest ROS update. |
Jake Browning SZN? Is Patrick Mahomes being grossly undervalued right now? These two and more QBs to upgrade from Matthew Freedman. |
We’re witnessing a second-year WR breakout in real-time in Chicago. Is Rome Odunze here to stay? Dwain McFarland breaks down Odunze and more of the biggest trends after two weeks. |
Fantasy
Matthew Freedman’s RB Upgrades For Week 3
Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Bears
As a Cowboys fan and an NFL analyst, I was strongly skeptical of Williams entering the season. But in Weeks 1-2, he piled up 194 yards and three TDs on 33 carries, 10 targets and an 89 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and James Cook: They're the only RBs with top-five fantasy finishes in each of the past two weeks (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix). One of these names clearly doesn't belong in this group … and yet I can't deny that—right now—Williams is a top-tier producer.
And I don't see why he should be anything less than that this week against the Bears, who last year were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%, per FTN) and this week will likely be without LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
Last week, the Bears allowed 52 points to the Lions, and in Week 1 they yielded 27 points to a struggling Vikings offense "led" by QB J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start.
What's to keep the Cowboys from getting 35+ points this week?
Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Bengals
The OL situation is bad for the Vikings, who could be without LT Christian Darrisaw (knee), C Ryan Kelly (concussion), and swing OT Justin Skule … but the offense might actually improve with backup QB Carson Wentz.
And No. 2 RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) is unlikely to play, so Mason could approach 20+ opportunities as a three-point home favorite. The Bengals last year were No. 31 in defensive rush SR (45.2%).
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Steelers
You might not like it, but Stevenson played well ahead of rookie TreVeyon Henderson in Weeks 1-2, and last game he balled out with 142 yards on 11 carries and five targets.
The Steelers have allowed 30+ points and 100-yard rushers (Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker) in consecutive games, and they could have DL woes without EDGE Alex Highsmith (ankle), DT Derrick Harmon (knee) and DT Isaiah Loudermilk (ankle).
Dynasty
Joe Burrow’s Injury Is A Dynasty Manager’s Nightmare
We’ve been talking about the Joe Burrow injury fallout for the rest of this season at length over the last few days. So much so that we almost forgot that this will impact next year, too … sigh. Jake Trowbridge decided to weigh in on his dynasty outlook for Mr. Burrow:
The prognosis on Joe Burrow couldn’t be much bleaker, as he’s apparently going to miss a minimum of three months thanks to his turf toe. That means you’ll be lucky if he’s back in time for your fantasy playoffs.
Look, this next part isn’t easy to say—but I no longer consider Burrow a top-five dynasty QB.
Yes, he’s only 28 years old, but this is potentially his third season-ending injury since entering the league. At this rate, his offensive line and the Bengals' personnel staff should be questioned by Daniel Craig in the next Knives Out movie. They’re basically doing to Burrow what the Colts did to Andrew Luck.
If one of your rebuilding leaguemates is willing to take on the hefty risks in favor of his admittedly elite upside, I’d let them. Because unless Cincinnati makes drastic improvements to their O-line or Burrow significantly changes his play style … this is always a possibility.
Patchwork Pivot: Jake Browning
When Browning replaced Burrow for seven games in 2023, he averaged 267 passing yards and two touchdowns (including some goal-line rushing TDs) per game. That made him the QB7 in points per game during that stretch. Stepping in this past week halfway through the second quarter, Browning put up 241 passing yards and three total touchdowns. Cincinnati’s offense will remain pass-heavy thanks to its rocky defense, and Browning’s numbers should be serviceable despite a tough schedule in the next few weeks.
Drop a significant amount of FAAB in Superflex leagues (I’m talking 80%), or if he’s somehow rostered, see if the lucky manager will part with him for a flex-worthy running back or receiver.
For more dynasty updates after what we saw in Week 2, read on … ⬇️
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
🪓 Some huge names got chopped this week. Tips on managing your FAAB for Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, and more.
📺 Upgrades and downgrades looking ahead to Week 3. Dwain and Ian have plenty.
😍 More Freedman’s Favorites: Wide receivers and Tight Ends.
🎉 Happy 100th Birthday, Martha. What a legend.
🚑️ Ugh, as expected … Burrow to IR. And tipping sombrero to Aaron Jones, also going on IR.
🙏 Good news for the Texans … they need him back.
🤕 Oof, being a coach ain’t easy. Just ask Sean McVay.
🧐 Tom Brady’s competing interests … here’s an update.
🔥 This Rome is burning, white hot all the way to WR1?
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