🏆 The Rookie WR Super Model is LIVE

Nobody:

Not a single person:

Gus Johnson: MASERATI MARV…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

New Eagles RB Saquon Barkley joined the Kelce brothers on their always fantastic “New Heights” podcast last week to discuss all sorts of things — including the still legal tush push.

Fantasy managers are all too familiar with the frustration that stems from an Eagles ball carrier getting to the one-yard line … only for Jalen Hurts to cover the final yard and (usually) convert the TD.

Turns out, Barkley is plenty aware of this phenomenon as well.

Barkley is right: His odds of getting the football from the one-yard line are pretty low in this offense, even if there should still theoretically be plenty of fantasy-friendly chances from inside the five-yard line.

Eagles RBs since 2021

• Rush attempts from opponent's 2-5 yard lines: 61 (1st in NFL)

• Rush attempts from opponent's 1-yard line: 10 (30th)

On the one hand, the Eagles rank inside the league’s top-five offenses in TDs and EPA per play over the past three seasons with Hurts as their full-time QB; there are a lot of scoring opportunities to go around here relative to most offenses.

On the other hand, Hurts’ infamous goal-line involvement and tendency to scramble instead of checking down in the passing game has helped result in the likes of Miles Sanders (RB37, RB21) and D’Andre Swift (RB24) not exactly posting the sort of numbers that fantasy managers have hoped for.

This got me thinking — What NFL offenses have provided the best and worst fantasy environments for their RBs in recent history?

It turns out that while the Eagles are in fact quite good at the real-life goal of, you know, scoring points, they hardly offer a haven for high-end fantasy RB production:

The Cardinals, Ravens and Bears join the Eagles near the bottom — adding more evidence to the idea that while dual-threat QBs might help their team’s run games in terms of raw yards per carry, their typically low passing volume and added presence around the goal line is a net negative for their offense’s RBs.

Best of luck to Saquon on overcoming his less-than-ideal fantasy environment. Good thing he has roughly 37.75 million reasons to not really care too much about who winds up capping off Philly’s TD drives — that will be for all of us fantasy nerds to tilt about instead.

Moving on to something far more positive…

Fantasy Life head of analytics Dwain “The Rock” McFarland has been in the lab GRINDING to evaluate the incoming class of rookie WRs. Many would simply put together a model of sorts to accomplish this task, but Dwain? That wouldn’t be nearly… super enough.

Presenting: Fantasy Life’s Rookie WR Super Model.

5️⃣ Rookie Super Model Tier 5

🐊 Ricky Pearsall | Florida

• WR Super Model: 42nd percentile

• Age: 24.0

• Height: 6’1”

• Weight: 189

Pedigree

• Program Quality Index: 55th percentile

• NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 47, Round 2

• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 3 of 5 stars

Pearsall climbed 50 spots in expected draft capital after a strong performance at the NFL Combine. The Florida product is a fifth-year senior who played his first three years at Arizona State before transferring.

Production

• Adjusted Career Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA) Index: 42nd percentile

• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 30th percentile

• Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 56th percentile

Ultimately, his best years came in his final two seasons (ages 22 and 23), which doesn’t bode well for future fantasy production. When researching factors for the model, I found that Year 4 and Year 5 production correlated negatively to future fantasy production. To achieve a high Adjusted RYPTA score you must produce in the first three years.

Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: WR72, Round 14

• Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR13, Pick 23

🏈 Ja’Lynn Polk | Washington

• WR Super Model: 41st percentile

• Age: 22.4

• Height: 6’1”

• Weight: 203

Pedigree

• Program Quality Index: 70th percentile

• NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 64, Round 2

• 247 Recruit Player Rating: 3 of 5 stars

Polk played at Texas Tech as a freshman before transferring to Washington for his final three seasons.

Production

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 34th percentile

• Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 42nd percentile

• Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 60th percentile

Player Summary

While he never registered a powerful RYPTPA performance in his first three years, he enters the NFL as a young prospect for a four-year player.

The model accounts for target competition based on teammate RYPTPA, and Polk gets a boost thanks to his Program Quality Index (70th percentile), but this is an extreme case where that might not be enough. We could see three Huskies taken in the first three rounds, including a potential top-10 pick in Odunze.

Polk’s Targeted QB Rating Index score at the 60th percentile tells us he is above average versus when he gets his opportunities. Pairing that score with his target competition is enough where, if you squint, you could weave a narrative that Polk scores too lowly in the model.

Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

• Underdog ADP: WR77, Round 15

• Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR15, Pick 27

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😮 Ian’s QB rankings are LIVE. Dak Prescott is HOW high?!

🤠 A potential answer at RB? This rookie would be a great fit for the Cowboys.

✍️ Rashee Rice’s attorney makes a statement. He’s cooperating with local authorities.

🏥 Tired: Waffle House fantasy punishment. Wired: MCAT practice exam fantasy punishment.

📊 Want to know the last time any NFL team drafted position x in the first two rounds? Very cool chart here.

🤣 Derrick Henry has a funny Nick Saban story. Lmao.

🏈 The Chiefs make a move at … QB? He is a Super Bowl champion.

👀 Cam Newton finally explains what N’Keal Harry told him. The story behind the viral meme.

🙏 Former Dolphins CB Vontae Davis passed away on Monday. RIP.

The fantasy football season might be over, but we are NOT ready to unplug. Cooterdoodle is here to keep our minds in check by asking the age-old, evergreen question: “What Now?”

😅 What Now? Dirty Work

Shoutout Norm MacDonald. 

We’ve got some work to do, boys and girls. No one wants to do the dirty work that’s necessitated during the lull of the offseason, but your leagues deserve it. 

Roll up your sleeves and get ready for a little nitty gritty. LET’S GET TO WORK!

🔍 I Spy: Collusion

We can’t expect to build upon a rocky foundation. Leagues will always crumble and fall apart at the hands of confirmed and/or suspected collusion.

If anything “sus” occurred last season, it has to be addressed. Now. Not tomorrow. NOW.

Here’s a spectrum of actions you might find helpful:

• Talk it out: Ask the league if there’s anything they’d like to address.

• Work it out: Open the floor to rule changes that might alleviate the issue.

• Write it out: Tighten up league bylaws. Make everything crystal clear.

• Kick em out: Sometimes the only solution is kicking a cheater to the curb. Boy, bye.

It’s dirty work, but someone’s gotta do it.

💼 Pack Your Bags

I’ll never tell you to admit when you’re in over your head with fantasy football leagues. At least not publicly.

But I do need you to do some soul-searching this week. Were you able to give your leagues the love and attention they deserved last season? 

No. I’m sorry. I didn’t ask if you were able to “keep up” with them. I asked if you half-assed it through any leagues. If so, it’s time to pack your metaphorical draft luggage and leave. It’s time to clear your bandwidth. 

It’s not fair to the league if your head isn’t fully in the game. Your league mates deserve the shit-talking, waiver chasing, trade negotiating, fully invested SOB that you are.

If you’re not invested, leave now so they have enough time to find a worthy replacement.

It’s dirty work, but no one wants a zombie in the league.

✈️ Destination Draft

Look, I know FAAB doesn’t buy what it used to. Money is tight. 

But if you nail down the logistics of your home league draft now, you can save a little on the back end. 

Maybe it’s your league’s 10-year anniversary and you want to plan a weekend-long destination draft. You’ll need to nail down dates, locations, weekends, budgets, and babysitters. Last-minute planning is for the birds. 

And while there may be some friends who are still experiencing their fantasy football refractory period, you’ll just have to rip off the band-aid and force them to think about it. Logistics aren’t easy, but the payoff is worth it.

It’s dirty work being the “planner”, but you’ll be happier come August.